Russia’s New “Virus Gonna Virus” COVID Strategy Is an Admittal Spring Lockdown Was an Unforced, Costly, Upside-Free Mistake

Now that the elderly are actually massively suffering from COVID Russia has no intention of returning to ineffectual lockdowns

Fact number one:

Through November Russia has recorded 1.881 million deaths whereas the 5-year January-November average is 1.697 million. In other words, by December Russia had seen 184 thousand excess deaths this year.

The number is being additionally sensationalized by calculating excess deaths not by comparison to the 5-year average as is the common statistical practice, but by comparison solely to 2019 which saw uncharacteristically few deaths. This calculation produces an “excess deaths” number of 230 thousand.

Staggering excess deaths but they don’t start on a grand scale until September and the supposedly apocalyptic March-April were actually well below average

The Russian authorities attribute 80 percent of this figure to COVID.* They are probably right. 133 thousand of the 184 excess deaths occurred in October and November. There is no reason for lockdown deaths to peak in these two months, but they do coincide with  highest daily COVID test-positive totals until then.

Fact number two:

Despite losing 106 thousand people to COVID in two months Russia has not gone back to lockdowns nor has it any intention to. There is no national lockdown nor anything of the sort. In places, there are some restrictions on the local level such as curfews for bars and compulsory masks on public transport but compliance and enforcement are scant, and social pressure to adhere is non-existent.

In other words, in the spring, when it did not even yet have any excess mortality at all, Russia enforced a Draconian, Maoist lockdown. A move so insanely radical that as part of it even the May 9th celebrations around the 75th anniversary of the victory in WWII (the cornerstone of Russia’s civil religion) were canceled. Yet now, when it is in fact losing 10,000 elderly people to COVID each week, life goes on instead much as normal, and the main concern is with recapturing the economic output lost in the spring lockdown.

What does it mean?

The Kremlin can continue to ridicule “COVID deniers” and profess its continued adherence to COVID cult orthodoxies, but actions speak louder than words.

Fact is that wiser for its spring experience Russia has rejected lockdowns in a most dramatic fashion. Even as COVID deaths are hitting sky-high numbers it no longer wants to go back.

The national authorities can say whatever they want, but their actions are of someone who  believes that lockdowns either:

A.) Do nothing to help COVID victims, but do pile on completely unnecessary non-COVID deaths on top,  or

B.) Perhaps help with the COVID situation marginally, but at such a devastating price that it is not worth it.

That is something the non-Maoist, grounded Lukashenko of Belarus who went ahead with his own 75th Anniversary celebrations could have told them back in March.

Had they listened they could have avoided causing additional lockdown deaths and becoming mini-Stalins guilty of callously killing their own people by decree.

They would have avoided inflicting the incredible humiliation and indignity of universal house arrest and compulsory muzzling on their people.

And they might have avoided causing 2020 to become such a lost year for Russia economically that it will now take 2-3 years just to get back to where it was originally.

We must appreciate that Russia is not Holland, or even Slovakia. Russia is a power under financial siege that the Empire would love to cut down to size, humiliate and subjugate. The only thing standing in the way of that is its considerable military power, which in turn rests on its economic power. A 5-percent hit to its GDP is a much serious thing to Russia than it would be to Britain or Italy. Firstly because for under-sanctions Russia it is more difficult to recover from, and even more importantly because for Russia it represents a direct threat to its independence, sovereignty and national dignity.

By enacting the spring lockdowns Putin sadly blundered into delivering a substantial blow to Russia for no benefit at all, and by not enacting a fall lockdown he admitted as much.

Sorry but there is no reality in which NOT enacting a lockdown when you’re losing 50,000 extra people a month is correct AND it was also correct to enact one such costly lockdown when the scale of death was far, far lower. It’s either lockdown in both cases, or neither.

On the other hand, at least eventually Moscow figured stuff out and a fair bit before the vast majority of the West. So in relative terms, it has gained on its Western besiegers, who took hits at around 10 percent, slightly. Albeit the leap ahead could have been bigger still had someone like Lukashenko, with a dose of potato-farming common sense and utterly unafraid to stand alone against all, been behind the wheel.

Lukashenko & son

* 80% of 184 thousand would be 147 thousand. The lockdown fanatic UK with less than half of the population claims 83 thousand deaths through today.

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yuri
yuri
6 months ago

most virologists in Russia claim 50,000 deaths due to covid, whatever “excess deaths” means…could be more ordinary flu or other reasons
in any case not repeating the mistakes of the angloshere has found cases declining, deaths declining

Gerald
Gerald
6 months ago
Reply to  yuri

‘Excess deaths’ is basically any deaths above the last 5 year average. Its a nebulous concept at best but can help figure out how bad deaths have been in say very severe winters or the effect of austerity policies. The UK had around 130,000 excess deaths due to its ten years of austerity and forcing the poor to pay for the upkeep of the rich after the last financial collapse. Many of those deaths were due to malnutrition ie. people starving to death.

7.62x39
7.62x39
6 months ago

Votka and tractors baby!!

fresnoman4man
fresnoman4man
6 months ago

Who are these alleged state “virologists” who are promoting the myth of COVID which is a scam of the fascist elites like Gates, Schwab, Musk, Bezos, et al? This is total authoritarian propaganda. No self-respecting Russian should buy into this scam designed to make them into slaves of the Chinese template..

Douglas Atkins
Douglas Atkins
6 months ago

Marko being stupid again. In the early months there was NO way to know how serious the biowarfare agent sent from the US would be. Russia knew it was biowarfare, but did not yet know its efficacy. As soon as the data was in they lifted the ” draconian measures”. Eminently practical and correct response all along. But West Slavs will always hate East Slavs out of jealousy.

XSFRGR
XSFRGR
6 months ago
Reply to  Douglas Atkins

I don’t know if Marko is stupid or not but the WooHooFlu is most certainly a U$ biowar agent.

fresnoman4man
fresnoman4man
6 months ago
Reply to  XSFRGR

The Covid virus has never been scientifically identified. The “tests” are totally bogus designed to create false cases of a nonexistent virus. It’s a “bio warfare agent” that is a propaganda myth conjured up by the authoritarians who in league with the Chinese regime are out to impose the New World Order (Great Reset) on the whole world. Shame on the Russian sheeple who have fallen for the virus propaganda that will destroy Russia’s viability as well as the rest of the world.

XSFRGR
XSFRGR
6 months ago

My father was a WW 2 vet who died at age 90. One of his best friends died just before Christmas at age 97. My father’s friend had double lung cancer, and his kidneys had failed. I was necessary to perform a covid test on his corpse so that the mortuary would know how to handle the body. You guessed it; he was positive for covid, and his death was recorded as a covid death. My wife is a nurse, and she knows of many more instances where this has been the case. This is how they come up with the fantastic number of covid deaths. Covid is a virus like the common cold or flu, and is no more dangerous than the season flu. In the U$ the common flu death rates have dropped by over 90%, and the cancer death rates have dropped over 40%. COVID IS A SCAM, AND IF RUSSIA IS DOING THE SAME THEN SHAME ON PUTIN.

Gerald
Gerald
6 months ago

Actual figures for UK are now over 100,000. The govt has been fiddling the figures. With a population circa 70 million its one of the worst in the world and is into its 3rd lockdown if you include the idiotic tier system that never worked either.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/13/uk-coronavirus-deaths-pass-100000

It must be so frustrating for the US/UK Russophobes not to be able to criticise the Russian numbers because in doing so they would only drawn attention to their own abysmal performance!

Anti-Empire