US Intel Echoes Anti-Empire’s Estimate From 2 Weeks Ago That Russians Are 70 Percent Ready
They're wrong. By now it's 80+ percent
The White House has quietly climbed down from its embarrassing and counter-productive claim that Russian military escalation in Ukraine is “imminent” and could happen any day. It is now making the more precise and basically correct claim that the Russians have amassed 70 percent of the military potential they would be aiming for if they were going to escalate:
US officials say Russia has 70 percent of the combat power to launch a full invasion of Ukraine pic.twitter.com/NeGfv6XtFD
— TRT World Now (@TRTWorldNow) February 6, 2022
The US is accompanying the estimate with a lot of its own spin and with many additional questionable claims (on the one hand the Russians now supposedly fear it would be a very difficult war, yet on the other Kiev is expected to fall within 40 hours after launch). But the underlying piece of information that the Russians have amassed 70 percent of what they would need is actually correct.
I have said as much two weeks ago. Citing my Unknown Territory piece:
Rather than think about what the Russians still haven’t done, think about what they have already accomplished. They have managed to assemble 70 percent of the assets they would need for the initial offensive without triggering any change in Kiev’s mobilization level. They have gone from 30 to 70 BTGs yet they’ve done it in such a way that leaves Ukraine struggling for answers but no closer to knowing if an answer is warranted or what it should be.
Actually, I would say the Americans are being conservative. Since then
— just about the whole Eastern Military District has migrated to Belarus
— the Rosgvardia paramilitary police have become active in Western Russia (they fought in Chechnya as OMON and “internal troops“. 2.5K of the 6K Russian dead were paramilitary police)
— a fleet of landing ships has appeared in Tartus, Syria, and is rumored to be transiting the Bosphorus on the 8th and 9th
— the Yelnya base is emptying out and the equipment of the 41st Combined Arms Army (originally from Siberia) is on its way from Smolensk to Bryansk.
Taking these and other smaller indicators into account I would say the Russians are already at 80% of what they would need. If they really wanted to, they could be ready in as little as a week. (Albeit as long as the Ukrainians aren’t mobilizing they lose nothing by continuing with a slow and methodical buildup.)
I don’t know if the Russians are going to build up to 100% of what they would need. And I don’t know what happens when they do. Will it be demonstration or war? I do know buildup is real and unprecedented.
Опук, крым pic.twitter.com/UC615M5Qyr
— IgorGirkin (@GirkinGirkin) February 5, 2022
Those poor Russian Soldiers, have no idea the terror that they will face ??
http://news.bbc.co.uk/media/images/46002000/jpg/_46002520_1995_tank_getty.jpg
That will be 100 times worst for the Russian Army, than Stalingrad ever was IMHO ??
You can not hold drills forever nor until the US decides to leave Ukraine. Sooner rather than later, putin will make a move, unless the us does it 1st.
I’d speculate that the Empire has been lulled into complacency by the Russians’ meticulous patience in the face of incessant provocations over the last couple of decades.
If and when Russia finally acts, the Empire (like any schoolyard bully) will be caught flat-footed and won’t have any answer beyond lashing out in a frenzy against anyone and everyone within reach.
You 1st need to analyze the current conditions of russian economy. For how long does the russian economy is able to hold state wide, cross arms, simoultaneous ground and sea drills?
If Putin warned the joint west that there is nowhere for russia to keep retreating, perhaps he was meaning that the current situation was undermining the russian economy and the quality of living of more and more russians every day?
Although it has been improving, current quality of living in Russia still has a long way to go to catch up with western europe standards and although import substitution has helped diversify the russian economy and increase its self reliance, it still needs to import key components from western companies and still need to diversify its export markets. Reckon the USA is betting on a quick deterioration of russian economy and will force Putin make the 1st move which will be a one move jake mate or a one punch street fight if putin doesnt want the USA to retaliate.
I think that, despite their warmongering bluster, the US War Machine and their Zio-Neo Con leadership realize that a military confrontation with Russia in Ukraine will not go well. Of course, they will not admit to this fact publicly. To admit fear of the Russian Military would be a definitive sign of weakness. This is something The World’s Bully can NOT admit to.