Russia’s Eastern Military District Has Migrated to Belarus
The Russian buildup is reality
Do you see the man in the photo above? This is Alexander Chaiko, the commander of the Eastern Military District. Do you see the flag behind him? That is the Belarusian flag. That is because Chaiko is currently in Belarus. What the heck is the commander of the Eastern Military District doing in Belarus? Well, he is there because just about his entire District has migrated there. Based on open-source material, currently in Belarus, or on the way there, are elements (presumably the most combat-ready elements) of 9 of his infantry or armored brigades, and of 3 artillery or missile brigades.
The exact tally by a Russian military history blogger:
Judging by the numerous photo and video materials posted on social networks, to Belarus from of the Eastern Military District, the main units of the 36th, 37th, 38th, 64th motorized rifle, 5th tank, 165th and 200th artillery, 103rd and 107th missile brigades were deployed to participate in the exercises , 69th Cover Brigade, 155th Marine Brigade. The 57th motorized rifle, 11th air assault brigades, 114th and 394th motorized rifle regiments of the 127th motorized rifle division are located in echelons on the way to Belarus
He adds:
The event is really extraordinary. For the first time in the post-Soviet history of Russia, such a large-scale transfer of forces over gigantic distances is being carried out.
As everybody understands if units of the Eastern District need exercise they can exercise in Asia. There isn’t a need to haul them all the way to the other end of the Russia-Belarus Union State.
Meanwhile, if there is a need for an exercise in Belarus it doesn’t need to overwhelmingly fall on the Eastern District. Normally the bulk of the units would be provided by the nearby Western District. Except of course if the Western District was already preoccupied with something else…
Another thing to understand about the Belarus drills is that they were only announced on January 14. These are not scheduled drills. This is a snap combat readiness check, but on a massive scale.
The units will be forming up and taking positions until February 9, after which an exercise “Union Resolve 2022” will be held until February 20. (In other words, after they form up there will be short drills to test readiness and get it to a higher stage.)
We can argue about whether Russia will soon launch a military offensive, or if this buildup is instead a warning/feint. (Nobody knows.) But one thing we can not argue about is that an elevated, unusual, and unprecedented Russian military posture on its western border exists. The buildup is a reality.
An entire military district getting on a train and switching continents is not a normal state of affairs. In fact, it is something never-before-seen in the entire history of post-Soviet Russia.
Just 4 infantry and 2 artillery brigades of the Eastern Military District were not observed sending any elements to Belarus:
It is worth noting that since 1922 there have never been so few forces on the border with Mongolia and China, even in the most difficult 1941. Of the full-blooded units in Transbaikalia and the Far East, there remains the 18th machine gun and artillery division, the 39th and 60th motorized rifle divisions, the 83rd airborne assault, the 30th and 305th artillery brigades, the 40th marine infantry brigade
Before WW1, that would have been called a general mobilisation.
Maskirovka 101 is people pictured in front of flags and “numerous photo and video materials posted on social networks”, no?
Obviously Russia is not worried about China.
Neither worried about the Japanese Army…obviously they believe China has their back.
As long as there is no field hospital nearby there will be no war
Logistics, and field hospitals have been positioned forward. Russia is in a war posture, but has won without firing a shot.
“The epitome of martial excellence isn’t winning every battle, but winning without fighting.” — Sun Tzu,
Russia Moving troops across its own soil or Allies is the same as US troops spread around the world. 100 or so US bases with military equipment and no one says a thing. But when it comes to Russia…IT’S the end of the world. Less drama would be nice.
There is no reason to believe it is not an exercise, regardless its scale or scope, because a major capability Russia is eager to showcase for the west is heavy-lift deployability – the ability to move large numbers of soldiers and equipment with practically no notice to anywhere they might be needed. The west is not even in the same ball-park in this category. This might be argued as entirely defensive, as it is a warning against whoever might be interested in striking Russia that any such attack element could be facing half the Russian army in the space of days. But it makes an equally good argument for the ability to project hard power anywhere in Europe with nearly zero warning. It would be harder, because Europe would try to defend whatever front or flank that was attacked, but no country in Europe with the possible exception of France could hold for long against the kind of pressure Russia could bring to bear. And most potential-reinforcing NATO countries would require more than a week’s notice to get their shit together for movement even in an emergency.
Taking care of the Poles should they get twitchy and start having any funny ideas