Wrong Again: Neil Ferguson & COVID Cult Cretins Screeched Hysterically That Restrictions-End Would See “Cases” Explode — They’ve Continued to Drop
‘I think 100,000 cases a day is almost inevitable...it’ll almost certainly get to 100,000 cases a day. The real question is: do we get to double that or even higher?"
A lot was said and written about the UK’s decision to press ahead with July 19, the so-called ‘Freedom Day’ when restrictions on social contact were lifted. Some greeted this date with a mix of horror, outrage and fury with 1,200 scientists signing a letter which effectively declared the unlocking as ‘a threat to the world.’
Much of the commentary focused on claims that there would be 100,000 positive Covid tests a day by July 19 and that a mass unlocking would only increase this. The full effect of the unlocking will only be seen in the fortnight after July 19 and the possibility remains that case numbers will go back up again – as they have done all too often before.
Mercifully though this has not been the case so far, with the numbers for today – 21 July – showing 23,511 positive test results and a seven day figure of 229,828 – a fall of 102,240 or 30.8 per cent from the previous week. Reasons suggested thus far for the fall include school holidays cancelling out the effects of unlocking and that the earlier July spike was caused by mingling for the Euro 2020 tournament.
Still, given the airtime given to those critical voices in the media, whose projections have at times been reported fairly uncritically, Mr S thought it worth rounding up four academics (and one politician) whose predications for late July will (hopefully) remain well wide of the mark.
Professor Anthony Costello – 12 June
After Freedom Day was pushed back from 20 June to 19 July, academics on Independent SAGE predicted the number of cases would sky-rocket, regardless. ISAGE member Anthony Costello, of University College London, said the true daily infection figure was likely more than double the 8,000 recorded in tests, telling the Daily Mirror:
‘In a month you’ll be up to 100,000 new cases a day. If the Government takes a gamble and lets rip like Tory backbenchers want, the NHS will be overloaded. Let’s wait. Let’s stay as we are.’
Professor Christina Pagel – 2 July
Another member of Independent SAGE who told the New Scientist: “I don’t think I can be a safe member of society when we have 100,000 cases a day.” She later wrote a piece for the Guardian headed “Boris Johnson gave two reasons for lifting all restrictions. Both are wrong” in which she claimed: “cases will keep rising, currently doubling every fortnight or so, until either population immunity is high enough or public health measures are effective enough – or a combination of both – to halt Covid’s spread.” Pagel projected on July 2 a 70 per cent growth in cases, which would mean a “90K seven-day average” “100K cases a day by 19 July.” As it transpired, less than three weeks later, the seven-day average on Freedom Day was 41,302 with 34,245 new cases that day.
They are climbing in all nations now – over the last week growth in all nations was about 70%.
This is clearer when looking at the same plot on a log scale (2nd chart).
It's not just testing- positivity is rising too (note that positivity chart only to 26 June) 3/24 pic.twitter.com/oMpav8jdSO
— Prof. Christina Pagel (@chrischirp) July 2, 2021
What does this mean? 70% growth is about 9 day doubling time & 18 days left till 19 July.
Growth has accelerated recently but projecting forward at current 70% gives 90K 7 day average & over 100K cases a day by 19 July.
Charts show same thing on log and normal scales. 4/24 pic.twitter.com/cWXJfDkkzt
— Prof. Christina Pagel (@chrischirp) July 2, 2021
Dr Susan Hopkins – 11 July
The Public Health England member told Times Radio that the UK’s coronavirus third wave was ‘three doubling times away from the peak, unless something changes’ just eight days before Freedom Day. This would have potentially meant more than 200,000 cases a day within six weeks, by the end of August. She added that no one could ‘ringingly endorse’ the decision to lift all restrictions and the country had to be braced for them to return at short notice if hospital admissions rose too much.
Professor Neil Ferguson – 18 July
The Imperial academic known simply as ‘Professor Lockdown’ appeared on the BBC a day before restrictions were lifted to warn of impending doom. He told Andrew Marr: ‘I think 100,000 cases a day is almost inevitable’ adding: ‘I think it’s almost certain we’ll get through 1,000 hospitalisations per day; it’ll almost certainly get to 100,000 cases a day. The real question is: do we get to double that or even higher? And that’s where the crystal ball starts to fail. I mean we could get to 2,000 hospitalisations a day, 200,000 cases a day but it’s much less certain.’ He concluded that, at that level, which was roughly half the level of Christmas 2020, there would be major disruptive of services and cancellations of elective surgery.
Prof Neil Ferguson says 100,000 Covid cases a day is "almost inevitable" as England eases restrictions on Monday#Marr https://t.co/POlbdX8vhv pic.twitter.com/OiDenl8mlY
— BBC Politics (@BBCPolitics) July 18, 2021
Sir Keir Starmer – 19 July
The fence-straddler-in-chief has been careful to avoid overreaching himself against Johnson, leaving other Labour outriders to make stronger attacks against the government. Nevertheless, it was just eight days ago the Leader of the Opposition claimed: ‘Lifting all restrictions in one go is reckless and doing so when the Johnson Variant is clearly out of control risks a summer of chaos…This will not be Freedom Day for the 100,000 people per day catching Covid and the millions more being asked to isolate. The Government has, once again, lost control of the virus.’
Boris Johnson's recklessness means we're going to have an NHS summer crisis.
The Johnson Variant is already out of control – and we're heading to 100,000 cases a day.pic.twitter.com/8mZmP6fv6p
— Keir Starmer (@Keir_Starmer) July 19, 2021
Let’s hope such predictions continue to be disproved by good news in the future.
Source: The Spectator
As the US Crime Death and Corruption agency is dropping the PCR because it cannot determing infection then one can presume all these case figures are bogus?
They also mention the PCR supposedly cannot determine the fictional covid from the flu. So how do they know all those cases are covid!
Guess it’ll take them six months to come up with another scam test. Let me help…. anyone unvaxxinated that dies…. covid. Any vaxxinated that survives… covid. All vaxxinated that die…. flu.
Oh,,, wait. They’re not dropping it until Dec 31 so until then the false numbers can be used. So sorry.
What a pile of horse hockey!
“As the US Crime Death and Corruption agency is dropping the PCR because it cannot determing infection then one can presume all these case figures are bogus?”
The weight of information in the public domain means that they can’t credibly maintain the PCR fiction any longer. So they’re changing tactics. A moving target is harder to hit.
“Guess it’ll take them six months to come up with another scam test.”
Nope. Plan B is already being rolled out.
And surprise, surprise – it is indeed another scam testing regime, rigged to enable them to tell whatever lies they want. This should hold up for quite a while before the lemmings eventually figure it out, and the CDC has to move on to Plan C.
Stew Peters Show – CDC Dumping PCR Tests, Going to Plan B
Also note the growing ineffectiveness of the ‘vaccines’ that only work in the off season, not during the flu season.
We are down to 16% effectiveness in Israel, zero effectiveness in the autumn to come.
Quite correct; it’s too soon yet to let go of the ‘test’ that has been so useful, labeling huge numbers of cases as ‘asymptomatic positives’ when the subject likely had nothing at all wrong with them. The PCR test is a perfect vehicle for spinning as the political love to do; the same test can be used not only to make overall ‘cases’ go up or down simply by increasing or decreasing the number of cycles a sample is tested at, the same facility can be utilized to create the appearance (1) the ‘vaccines’ are working, and (2) ‘new cases’ are exclusively among the anti-vaxxer holdouts. How many of them can there be, I wonder, considering the ‘cases’ always take an alarming surge upward whenever the miserable proles are given back a tiny bit of the ‘freedoms’ that apparently are government’s to bestow or withhold, but when we are talking vaccine hesitancy they are always a tiny minority? Are they not all dying, or something? Overwhelming the hospitals? Added to this fakery, the organizations themselves have simply stopped counting positives among the vaccinated unless they die or are hospitalized.
Well, Ken, I’m not at all surprised about the US Crime Death and Corruption agency dropping the PCR since it cannot determine infection then one can presume all these case figures are, indeed bogus.
Yep, they also mention the PCR supposedly can’t determine the fictional covid from the flu .. So, how do they even know all those are covid?? Truth is, they really don’t know, but are too stupid to admit it.
Incredible. From where do these talking mouths obtain their data from ??? For 18 months now, every prediction made regarding numbers for this alleged Virus, they have been WRONG ! Have the learnt anything from these FALSE predictions ??? Not a thing, still carry on as if they never happened. What does one say about such individuals who never learn from their past mistakes ????
Self centered sociopaths paid by institutions or governments. Fauci, Walensky, Governor Newsome,…..
Determined to believe, more likely – governments have discovered a rich vein among their populations of citizens who are crying out for strict regulation for its own sake, which need not be substantiated by any compelling reason. An invented one will do just fine. They want to sacrifice, need to be bullied.
Even their own narrative is a load of shit. The ‘vaccines’ are down to 16% effectiveness in Israel…..and falling & don’t stop the spread of anything.
They are destined to reach ZERO effectiveness just in time for the next flu season. Quelle surprise !
”I was a Covid super-spreader and the guilt is killing me: How Australian socialite gave the Delta strain to SIXTY people in a single weekend despite being fully vaccinated”