Russia to Mobilize 300,000 (!) for Ukraine, Steps Taken to Make Another 250,000 Deployable
7 months into the war Putin takes dramatic steps to address a problem Group Therapists proclaimed did not exist
7 months into the war Putin takes dramatic steps to address a problem Group Therapists proclaimed did not exist
Russia to mobilize 300,000 ex-servicemen and specialists.
The mobilized will have the status of contract soldiers (meaning they are deployable to Ukraine).
Contract soldiers and the newly mobilized are retained for active service indefinitely — until partial mobilization is rescinded or they are otherwise dismissed — regardless of how much time they had left on their contract (stop loss).
Ostensibly the 250,000 conscripts serving their mandatory national service will not be sent to “the area of SMO”, but yesterday’s announcement of referendums in Lugansk, Donetsk, Zaporozhye, and Kherson on joining Russia opens the path for precisely that. When these areas are proclaimed Russian soil conscripts can be deployed there without the procedural need to declare a state of war.
What does this mean?
I explained before that almost the entire weight of Russia’s war rested on just 250,000 men — the officers and contract soldiers of the various land combat arms. The mobilization will massively increase the number of these shoulders to some 500,000 (I’m assuming some of the 300K will go to the Air Force, border guards…).
Moreover, the potential deployment of serving conscripts after the referenda (and after the fall draft is complete) could raise that number by another 150-200K to nearly 700,000.
It will take several months for the mobilization to start feeling itself on the battlefield in full, but this is a “game-changer”. The Russian half-war had exhausted itself, had bogged down, had lost initiative — and worst of all, was starting to devour the Russian ground army.
The mobilization of 300K deployable troops fixes the enormous glaring hole in the Russian war which was the extreme paucity of manpower.
It means that the Kremlin saw exactly what all of us who are not 5D clowns had seen — that the war in the parameters of an “SMO” had spent itself and was starting to be beat, and decided to address the problem with an escalation.
Of course, if you’re going to do something 7 months into a war it means that you should have done it right from the start.
Instead, Ukraine was given 7 valuable months in which to generate additional forces while Russia wasted time. — And worse, was consuming its military power in battles that were more difficult than they needed to be if the kontraktniki had proper conscript and mobiki (the trendy name for “the mobilized” in Russian these days) support.
Nonetheless, the world makes a lot more sense now. I was not in favor of this fratricidal Rus-on-Rus war so I’m not going to celebrate its escalation either. That said even when I don’t agree with people I can respect them more if they are at least coherent. For example, if you’re going to get yourself elected Pope then at least be Catholic, or if you’re going to involve your nation in a war then at least fight it.
If you went out with a girl it’s a good idea to not message her too often. It gives you a little bit of mystique and makes it appear like you’re not all that outcome-dependent. She’s pretty but you’ve got other things going in your life too. But if on the contrary, you are in a *war* then you are in a war full-on from the first minute. You are in it with every fiber of your being, and from the first moment it starts. A war is like a bar fight. Either run away, or smash the ashtray into the first nose in front of you. There is no in-between.
Instead for 7 bizarre months after starting it Putin treated the Ukraine War like a date that needed to be reminded that she isn’t all that. That he also has other priorities, and that he wasn’t all that invested in how things turned out. Utterly bizarre. That’s good for local eye candy but not how you treat Lady War. There is no upside with Lady War for giving her a cold shoulder, only punishment.
The price of Putin’s dilly-dallying for 7 months to the advantage of Kiev and NATO will be that in the long run more people will die, and Russia will accomplish less than if she started the invasion pretty much how every invasion ever has been started — with all available forces and with additional force generation from the start.
None of this is hindsight. I was expressing puzzlement and disbelief that Putin had launched a major war in Europe but ordered the military to fight without its draftees as soon as I learned about this in the first weeks of the war.
And I had been warning that such a self-hindered invasion would likely eventually hit a wall upon which conscripts would have to be called anyway since at least April.
This is quite a pattern actually. I spent December-February saying it was increasingly likely that Russia would strike in Ukraine. The 5D clowns said this was impossible, and that the real Russian “military-technical” answer would be some clever judo move, perhaps in Latin America, that will catch everyone by surprise. Then on February 24 Moscow sent tanks on Kiev and proved me right.
Early into the invasion I wrote that the smallish Russian force had spread itself over too many axes of advance and dissipated its limited numbers over too many theaters. I wrote this while the Russians were still making decent progress in a number of directions. The Kremlin Fan Club meanwhile was busy masturbating over every aspect of the invasion as sheer unprecedented brilliance. A couple of weeks later the Russian military abandoned the Kiev axes, concentrating all power in the south and east, demonstrating that they had seen the exact same thing I saw.
After that aspect of the campaign was fixed, the most immediate and consequential problem of the invasion became the manpower deficiency in the absolute that was increasingly visibly causing Russia to run out of steam. I wrote for months that this, if not addressed, would eventually naturally result in a stalemate and quagmire for Russia. But the Group Therapy Brigade, instead, came up with the evidence-free narrative that Russia didn’t need manpower and that it would be Ukraine that would feel a manpower crunch long before Russia because of the supposed staggering and unsustainable casualties Russia was allegedly inflicting. Then Putin demonstrated the dearth of Russian manpower in the war by proclaiming the mobilization of a staggering 300,000 (!) and taking steps to make another 250,000 deployable.
This is my third major vindication in under a year. What is also interesting about these vindications — in the light of most attacks on me being in the vein of why I’m not singing more praises to the Russian government like the 5D Therapy Groupthinkers — is that all these vindications keep being delivered by Putin, Kremlin and RUMOD. For whatever reason STAVKA loves vindicating me.
RUMOD has very good reasons for always publishing the most shameless and nonsensical spin and just in general emitting a stream of garbage. The reason is that no matter how trash their stream is, simply owing to psychological variance there are about 20% of people who are going to believe it no matter what. So it is just good reflexive control (Soviet psy-op doctrine) to supply that demographic with the garbage it craves and is so willing to swallow and regurgitate.
However, how RUMOD actually runs its war frequently reveals that it holds people delirious enough to believe and regurgitate its trash in utter contempt. For the third time now in under a year now RUMOD has made a major move that its most ardent defenders claimed was impossible or unnecessary.
If I point to a problem. While the Groupthink stubbornly claims there is no problem. And if then RUMOD goes and takes drastic steps to address this problem, then who is really on the same wavelength as RUMOD?
Hilariously the 5D lemmings proclaim deviation from RUMOD’s reflexive control as insufficient loyalty to the New Multipolar World and a sign that the person shouldn’t be speaking on military affairs, all the while RUMOD’s actual actions keep putting egg on their faces and keep aligning far more with the thinking of people who are far more critical of RUMOD than they.
In actions RUMOD (to its great credit) continues to show that it agrees far more with its critics such as Strelkov than its 5D lemming defenders who swallow and regurgitate the Konashenkov psy-op without a second thought and come back asking for more.
Why wasn’t this done before 22 February? How long will these troops take to refresh/retrain, bring up to speed, and deploy, time-wise? Will it make a major difference at this point? Not trying to be a wise guy, they are serious questions and I really want to know.
It’s going to take some time…conscripting Veterans, refresher courses, deployment…to get to the Number the RF wants will take time…even to get “regular” reserves to the front will be weeks away.
Without waiting they could increase backing from the Air Force, whether that will be enough to “hold the line” remains to be seen.
The importand question is (we’ll find the answer soon enough), have the mindset, talent, wisdom, experience of the field-commanders on the front-line changed. In April they transferred a good number of troops from Harkov city to Luhansk, what good did it do ? They captured Rubizhe, Severodonetsk and Lyzichansk, then stalled. Even the Ukrainians expected them to go as far as Kramatorsk, but they didn’t.
The reservists could arrive in Luhansk city, Donetsk city, Mariupol city before the end of October. They could free up the thousands of soldiers who have been lingering in the background in the past 3-4 months; that would make a difference at Marinka, at Pisky, at Bahmut. (if Wagner made progress from Marinka, that would relieve the front-line north of Mariupol)
Another question is, will the Ukrainian high-command introduce a new element (doubling the number of the Expeditionary Force only works if nothing changes on the Ukrainian side).
As I wrote yesterday (but that comment disappeared) I’m not Yakov. This guy is Yakov Kedmi:
I merely settled on using this username after login and password was discontinued in May. My registered username was “guest”.
As per my low opinion on the residents of Moskva: I have low opinion on residents of all large cities, but because there is a killing-filed in operation, the population of Moscow and Petrograd come to the fore —they are sitting there (in Western clothes, with english text) stuffing their faces with hamburgers, while the lesser children of Mother Russia from Rostov and Siberia are mangled.
200 years before us, Thomas Jefferson already had a low opinion on residents of large cities: “I view great cities as pestilential to the morals, the health and the liberties of man.” —September 23, 1800.
OK Ploni Ben Almoni 😉 ( aka “anonymous”)
I have lived in the city and the country, while “country boys” are able to “make do” better, plenty of aggressive types in the cities.
Hey pro empire.
Russian conscripts will not go to the front lines. They will replace regular Russian troops in Russia and occupy areas in Ukraine cleared of Judeo Nazis freeing up 300 k regular Russian forces to destroy the racist Jewish supremacist Judeo Nazi satanic slave empire dictatorship.
Your lies on this site are pathetic pro racist Jewish supremacist Judeo Nazi NATO satanic slave empire dictatorship.
Yes. now that the racist Jewish supremacist Judeo Nazi NATO satanic slave empire dictatorship has gone all in this is necessary. The war will end quickly. I say 3 months tops to train them all along with more volunteers so by January and then war should be over by the end of March.
The EU and NATO will be defeated and will likely break up and those who run this site will lsoe their NATO Mossad funding. start looking or a new job.
Russia has made mistakes but Judeo Nazi NATO has made many more and Russia has been good at taking advantage of. The mistakes of the Jewish empire fueled by the arrogance of the alleged superior Jewish intellect has allowed Russia to begin to demilitarize all of NATO including the USSA and to de Jewish supremacist Judeo Nazify all of NATO including the USSA and crush all their economies at the same time. No one could have predicted this would happen all at once and so quickly.
Any who will be called up for mobilization would be smart to volunteer first right now today and get more pay.
If this site is so bad, why do you waste your precious time on earth reading, writing and commenting on it?
Go away please bc this ranting of lies does nothing for nobody.
He still has not changed his name, Pres. A. Lincoln ( his namesake) Canceled Grants orders to Expel Jews from Southern States…
Also Plenty of Jewish, and/or people of Jewish Extraction in Russia.
His purpose is to discredit those who are opposed to zionism, or nato, or wef; and to discredit those who see that there are plenty of conspiracies in this world
Partial mobilization. Partial and selective. Hardly anyone from the district of Moscow and the district of Petrograd will be summoned. Those citizens are very big on avoiding conscription, therefore they are not even in the reserve. MacTochka will continue to do good business.
Good article and on point…
Will this 300,000 be enough to actually “win” the war for Russia? I define win as also take Odessa, not merely the rest of the Donbas oblasts.
One thing this shows is that Ukraine and the West now have zero chance to take back Donbas and Crimea, the added sunk cost of 300,000 draftees and resultant casualties will make it impossible short of a revolution in Moscow for any Russian leader to give up meaningful territory. But my gut tells me the Ukrainians are buck wild crazy and will not negotiate short of losing a lot more territory (like for example Odessa)
There is a world of difference between proclaiming activation of reserves and creating a feasible fighting force capable of facing Ukrainian NATO spearhead.
Especially if the state of affairs in the current….professional….military, and society in general, are as they, obviously, are.
Doctrine, approach to training/preparations, quality of equipment, (obsolete) CiC from Soviet era, etc. etc.
RF land armed forces don’t have proper NCO corps. There is no concept of team, squad/section.
As we speak, in most areas of combat in Ukraine it takes more than an hour to get an artillery fire support if/when requested by a platoon leader.
I could go for hours.
And then there is the issue of morale.
Anybody reading this, try to imagine YOU being called up and sent to this war, on the Russian side. Try to visualize how it works from receiving the call to getting into foxhole in Ukraine.
This is what will happen in the next several months:
Support from the West will, dramatically, increase.
The war will get more bloodier, especially on the Russian side. All this new flesh, fed into the grinder with the usual Russian approach to war, we’ve seen so far, will bleed a lot. Get a lot of frostbite too.
As for the West, or better for the 0.1 %, MiC in particular, perfect.
We will also get into far footing. Stagflation, increased state control, and the rest for the masses. Huge profits and more power for the top.
All based on rivers of Slavic blood.
1984 type battlefield in Ukraine. Maybe we’ll even get two minutes hate on 6 o’clock news.
Cynic would say we don’t deserve better.
Even the clearly inadequate force Russia first sent in was sufficient to give it the initiative for almost the entire period of the war, and to take large chunks of Ukrainian territory. The only offensive success of the war for Ukraine came in precisely the part of the Russian front which was thinnest. This more than doubling of the Russian troops in theater will obviously make an enormous difference, particularly since lack of troops was the single biggest problem hindering the Russian side. The West is out of weapons to give Ukraine save for the USA, and even it specializes in very fancy over-engineered kit made in smallish quantities, not for this quasi-WW1 industrial war
Those conscripted 300.000 will stay in Russia proper, but will free 300.000 professionals to go to Ukraine and finish the job.
Obviously, massive missile striles on ukie infrastrukture will have to be done soon. All bridges, power stations, tunnels and border crossings have to go.
If nato eurotrash persists, than missile strikes have to be delivered beyond ukie borders. Nato scum understands only fist in mouth.
And NATO would reply…doubtful the RF would do that.
If eurotrash persists, RF will do that, as a mater of neccessity. Nato will hardly respond, given Russian superiority on european land, and will most likely dissolve.
Bear in mind that eurotrash is powerless without USA, and americans will never risk nuclear exchange with Russia. No balls for that for sure.
Therefore, this will all most likely end with disapperance of ukraine and relegation of eurotrash to thirld world countries status.
The RF has already been hit inside it’s 1991 borders with NATO / U.S.A. HIMARS rockets in Belgorod, more than once, so far no attack on NATO. Much of the European side of NATO may be a joke at this point, but the U.S.A. is no Joke ( at least in terms of Military).
The RF is not “crazy” nor “stupid” to drag NATO into an Article 5 response by going after NATO on it’s own soil ( at least without using a proxy force like NATO is doing with Ukraine). As far as I can see the EU MIGHT shrink, but the NATO overlay in the EU is growing at the moment. The real question about France and Germany going along into a full scale war with the RF is something I cant answer, that would depend on a lot of factors.
At least that is my take on things…
Most likely it will all end with ukraine ceasing to exist, and without further expansion of war, with possible exception being USA pressuring dumb pollacks to somehow attack Russia, or enter into ukraine to help ukies.
In that case we will see polland being bombed with precision weapons to bits, and USA declaring it is not their problem, as next step would likely be nuclear exchange. For which usa does not have balls.
France and germany are no-entities, but even their vassal regimes will not dare to go suicidal and attack Russia, despite being pressured by Usa masters. Besides, Germany is collapsing as we speak, doubt they have any combat capability at this stage.
What will happen to Moldova is what interests me, when RF get past Odessa to their border, which will be happening somewhere around January. An referendum there may be possibility, at least as Transnistria is concerned.
Yes, Russians are for now ignoring bombing by proxy of their proper, but we have seen so far they do not react to provocations as much, and rather stick to their plans. But I am sure they do not forget that either, so it will be likely addressed at appropriate time.
Transnistria will indeed be interesting, on the rest we will have to just wait and see.
Russia has just banned airline ticket sales for men aged 18 to 65, according to airlive.net. (https://www.airlive.net/breaking-russian-airlines-ordered-to-stop-selling-tickets-to-russian-men-aged-18-to-65/amp/)
This is the WEF control grid being imposed on Russians under the guise of war. This is Russian men being turned into slaves without rights. The crisis is engineered, and it is a means to an end.
The WEF must be pleased with their puppet Putin. His Khazarian Mafia masters must be giving their loyal dog belly rubs right now.
Noticed that as well, up to age 65 Russians need a waiver from the defense ministry to leave Russia…so much for those who bought panic plane tickets out…they ain’t leaving unless via a sparsely guarded land border if they already have some kind of visa.
This is getting serious, and silly at the same time…60 to 65 is way to old for many to be productive in our unhealthy era. IMHO up to 50 is better, and that is pushing it.
Agree with you on that, 50 should be limit. Still, ukrainians are doing much worse, mobilizing women in army, which is absolutely disgusting. And a sure sign of impending ukie colllapse. All very sad.
Drafting women is obviously a poor idea when they make the next generation, should only be used as a last resort. From what I read they are drafting women “volunteers” for combat roles, but AFAIK they have used women volunteers from the start of the conflict ( 2014), and currently require women to register for “the draft”. I’m not sure they will force the ladies who don’t volunteer into combat roles…
In any case, the list of counties that Draft Young Women now includes Ukraine, Israel, North Korea, Norway, and Bolivia.
For the first draft, the military of the RF seems to have better judgement than the travel restrictions for 65 and younger.
“privates and sergeants – up to 35 years,
junior officers – up to 50 years old,
senior officers – up to 55 years”
This is the information posted on a ( English language) Russian site…of course this is the first wave, and they have plans for up to a million men if needed.