Massive Reversal in Ethiopian-Tigrayan War as 7500 Ethiopian POWs Marched Through Capital to Prison Camps
Well that was unexpected
Editor’s note: At least superficially it looks like another case of a small, cohesive minority prevailing over a huge, and hugely dysfunctional state. Not unlike the Chechen win over utterly dysfunctional Russia in the 1990s if you will. Both sides are Coptic Christian but the Ethiopian government had enlisted the support of the neighboring (and erstwhile enemy) Muslim Eritrea against the Tigray. Actually, from 1991 to 2018, the Tigrayans were a crucial part of the governing coalition in Ethiopia and wielded influence greatly disproportionate to their numbers, owing to their role in overthrowing the BERG in 1991.
Since the current conflict kicked off in late 2020 the US passed some sanctions against Ethiopia but Russia and China were more cautious declining to rush to moralize a complex conflict they knew little about. Coincidentally the current WHO head Tedros Adhanom is a Tigray and a member of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front who was elected to his post when Tigrayans still ruled in Addis Ababa. I’ve heard a theory that the current surprise reversal is owed to Tedros being able to secure the backing of one or more great powers for Tigray in return for doing their bidding at the WHO but I haven’t seen evidence of that.
The disastrous finale of the Ethiopian-Tigray war.
A column of more than 7,000 captive soldiers of the Ethiopian army (a total of 7,521 prisoners are declared – count, by local standards, a whole division), which was driven through the streets of the recently recaptured capital of Tigray in Ethiopia. In the style of driving captured Germans across Moscow in 1944 and captured Ukrainian Nazis in Donetsk in 2014.
The prisoner drive was carried out in response to statements by the Ethiopian Prime Minister that he had ordered an indefinite unilateral ceasefire for humanitarian reasons. Demonstrating thousands of prisoners, the NFOT insists that it has won and the central government simply cannot continue the war for military reasons. Nevertheless, a grouping of the Ethiopian army of up to 30,000 people is now deployed on the border with Tigray, but apparently, there is no longer any political will to continue the war.
The government hardly expected the end of a small victorious war to be so dire.
In general, an unexpected, but epic rewrite of Tygra. For Ethiopia, this defeat will clearly not add internal stability.
Source: Colonel Cassad