Machine translated from French.
In Severodonetsk, the fighting is still raging, no offense to the excited who announce his liberation by the Russian-Republican forces, either complete or impossible.
In the previous SITREP devoted to this sector, I had described the difficulties linked to the terrain, and to Ukrainian resistance maintaining itself around the Azot factory and at the level of the bridges still passable on this left bank of the Donets river separating Severodonetsk from Lisichansk, the main part of this double bastion and whose extent and garrison and altitude are 3 times greater.
Even if on the maps it is a question of 2 distinct cities, they cannot be dissociated in the common stake which represents their strategic position in the East of Kramatorsk and which justifies the priority given to the 2 Major States, the Russian and the Ukrainian (understand) American, who are vying for control.
In recent days, the movement of some Ukrainian units from Severodonetsk to Lisichansk suggested that the General Staff in Kiev had decided to withdraw from the left bank of the Donets, but the arrival of reinforcements leading even counterattacks came contradict this hasty conclusion and delay this withdrawal, which is nevertheless inevitable in the long term, even if Kiev succeeds in regaining momentary control of the city).
I confess to being tired of seeing with what narcissistic immaturity certain pro-Russian analysts who want to be the first to announce Russian victories at any cost, even that of a lie, impose on their public stupid and even unproductive fantasies.
Rooting for a side and even physically participating in the conflict must not be done at the expense of truth and rational analysis.
And all those saloon pundits who have been ranting for 100 days announcing every week the imminent rout of the “disintegrated”, “demoralized”, “unfit” Ukrainian army in the face of a “perfect”, “invincible” and “overwhelming” Russian army should learn humility, avoid confusing ideological dogma for rational analysis and above all stop taking people for greater idiots than they are!
Their propagandist flunkeyism is only matched by that of the experts invited on BFM TV and Co.
First, the city is not yet liberated and there are attacks and counterattacks on each side,
Secondly, the Ukrainian forces despite heavy losses continue to fight,
Third, the Allied forces also suffered significant losses and tactical failures,
Fourth, the encirclement of this Ukrainian bastion cannot be completed in the short term…
What we observe in Severodonetsk as before in Mariupol or Izium is an inevitable defeat of the Ukrainian forces but which in a sacrificial strategy try to impose a maximum blood price to seek to impose on the Russian and Republican forces a “victory at the Pyrrhus” prohibiting him from continuing his maneuver towards Lisichansk.
As for the Ukrainian counter-attacks, for the time being they are part of a usual tactical ebb and flow in this type of high-intensity urban combat where a district, a street, a building can change hands several times during the battle. And as President Zelensky himself recognized implicitly the inevitable abandonment of Severodoneysk: “The situation remains extremely difficult”.
A news item that says a lot about the state of mind of the tottering power of Kiev:
The Ukrainian deputy, Maryana Bezuglaya has just been sent by President Zelensky in the framework of the defense of Severodonetsk. A nomination that would be insignificant if this banderist, who did an internship at the American State Department, had not proposed a few days ago to the Rada law №7351 which would authorize the command to fire on its soldiers who surrender or desert.
Ukrainian reinforcements… and international ones
At the beginning of June, the Ukrainian General Staff sent several reinforcements of infantry and artillery in the localities of the sector serving as a framework for their defense system around Kramatorsk, such as Artemovsk (Bakhmut), Seversk and of course Lisichansk and Severodonetsk.
They made a buzz, these mercenaries of the “International Legion for the Defense of Ukraine, giving mythos interviews as soon as their backpacks landed in Severodonetsk, proving that Severodonetsk is first and foremost a political and media objective for Kiev, even to sacrifice all military logic to it.
In reality, these mercenaries of the Ukrainian International Legion are here attached to the 79th Ukrainian Air Assault Brigade, several units of which have arrived in this sector of the front. Their manpower and resources are therefore not even sufficient to form an autonomous unit.
Faced with the arrival of these Ukrainian reinforcements in Severodonetsk, the Russian forces decided to destroy the last bridge still passable by vehicles (“Prolestarsky” bridge), located north of the city. and the one to the south already damaged by previous shots.
In this ongoing battle of Severodonetsk, I do not think that the trends described by Russian and Ukrainian propagandists are completely false, such as the withdrawal of Ukrainian units towards Lisichansk, which in the long term is inevitable but which today certainly and primarily concerns those who have suffered too many losses to continue the fight or those, such as the poorly equipped, supervised and trained territorials who are reluctant to find themselves in the front line and further weaken the Ukrainian system.
Obsessed with the desire to give an illusion of offensive resistance, the Ukrainian General Staff launched 2 limited but highly publicized counterattacks, carried out in the northern and southern districts of Severodonetsk at the time when these NATO mercenaries arrived. However, the overall course of the battle remains unchanged for the moment and in favor of the Russian-Republican forces, and this by Kiev’s own admission which, commenting on these ongoing counterattacks, hoping on June 4 that“this will make it possible to hold out for 2 weeks what’s more”. Similarly, this order from the Ukrainian sector command given to special forces to mine the tanks of the Azot Chemical Plant containing 100 tons of nitrogen each.
Outside the Severonetsk/Lisichansk stronghold
North of the city, information announces a crossing of the Donets by Russian forces. As in Popasnaya, we must now wait a few days to confirm and know if the breakthrough becomes an offensive bridgehead.
South of the city, the Russian-Republican noose is seriously tightening around the small cauldron of Zolotoe whose Ukrainian forces will soon have to either retreat towards Lisichansk or be destroyed on the spot.
If these 2 offensive maneuvers which have gained a total of about fifteen kilometers are confirmed, this means that the encirclement of Severodonetsk / Lisichansk continues, but there are still about 40 km to conquer and under the fire of Ukrainian artillery. It will therefore take time during which the forces in Severodonetsk will have to hold out.
On the morning of June 5, a veritable cacophony of propaganda flooded the information networks with, on the one hand, the pro-Russians who announced that the Ukrainian forces were in the process of abandoning the city and, on the other hand, the pro-Ukrainians who announced on the contrary, they took over Meltikone and Voronove, 2 localities on the south-eastern outskirts of Severodonetsk.
What is certain is that the fighting for control of Severodonetsk continues and is very violent.
Even if the Russian victory in the battle of Severodonetsk seems certain, it remains to be seen for when and at what price, and what will be the availability and the operational level of the Russian-Republican forces to take the next step, namely the liberation of Lisichansk. Which in my opinion can only be accomplished by its radical encirclement and in no case by a frontal assault coming from the thalweg of the Donets.
In the meantime, it would be interesting for the Russian forces to give urgent priority to the destruction of the last bridges separating Severodonetsk and Lisichansk because until they can be used against Lisichansk and in the event that they will not be destroyed by the last Ukrainian units retreating (like those between Krasni Liman and Slaviansk), they are used to bring in reinforcements for counterattacks…
In my humble opinion.