Rheinmetall was making 70,000 shells per annum before the war, plans to build some 450,000 this year, 700,000 in 2025, and 1 million by 2027.
If these targets are met by the end of this year the US Army and Rheinmetall will be jointly producing roughly 110,000 shells monthly, or 3500 daily. Great many of them will be sent to tear Russian soldiers apart (imagine the converse of Putin daring to send ammunition to Afghans).
This does not include 155 mm production in France and South Korea, and production of 152 mm and 122 mm in places like Czechia and Bulgaria. These aren’t on the same scale as America’s and Rheinmetall’s but everything adds up.
Last month Putin stated it would be “ridiculous” for Russia to negotiate “just because Ukraine is running out of ammunition”. This is bravado. The reason some shaky and temporary truce right now would be bad for Moscow isn’t because Ukraine is running out, but because from here on Ukraine’s ammunition situation will only improve.
The Russian advantage in having a foe that can afford to fire a mere 1000 rounds per day will not last. The West was not lightning-quick in making investments in capacity, but Putin failed to do very much with that. Advantage that existed was not taken.
If an investment of X in lives, men, and treasure, would have been enough to defeat Kiev in 2022, then it would now take an investment of 5X to accomplish the same.
Between the expansion of Kiev’s army, its growing experience, and the capital investments being made in the West to better serve as its industrial rear, with each day Kiev is becoming a more difficult foe to subdue, not a feebler one.