Worth the Stone Age Prison Planet? Most-Tested German District Has 0.37% Covid Mortality Rate
And that's using the sensationalized tabulations where everyone who dies with the virus is its victim
Editor’s note: 0.37% is way less than what they have been trying to scare us with and what they used to justify the hysterical shutdowns and lockdowns. Even so a 0.37% mortality wouldn’t be particularly low. If 60% need to catch it before it goes extinct then in a country of 83 million that would be 184 thousand dead — albeit far, far less if we were to quarantine the vulnerable population while allowing the virus to spread freely among those who will not be affected by it which is what we should be doing.
That said the 0.37% mortality figure is based on tabulations where everyone who dies while positive for COVID-19 is counted as its victim, which is not how we tabulate deaths for any other respiratory infection. (The German CDC, the federal Robert Koch Institue has been screaming at a few places like Hamburg which have continued tallying deaths the usual to get on with the program.)
However, even the super-alarmist Neil Ferguson in Britain who played a pivotal role in convincing Boris Johson to institute lockdowns has estimated about two-thirds of its supposed victims would have died anyway. Now one-third of 0.37% is 0.12% which is perfectly in line with a flu. (Moreover, unfortunately at this early stage there are still questions about how reliable the antibodies test itself is.)
To understand how the corona virus spreads, scientists have been looking to Heinsberg for weeks. In the district in North Rhine-Westphalia, more people were tested positive for the pathogen than in any other region in Germany.
The first interim results of a representative study for the community of Gangelt show that probably 15 percent of the population there has already been through an infection with the virus and is now immune. Based on the tests already available, this value had previously been estimated at only five percent.
According to study leader Hendrik Streeck, the first results suggest that the stringent requirements to contain the epidemic could be gradually relaxed if hygiene measures are continued.
Streeck is currently investigating on behalf of the NRW state government how the coronavirus has spread in the particularly affected district of Heinsberg. For this, his team is mainly in the community of Gangelt. From there, the virus had spread rapidly after a carnival session in mid-February. Preliminary results are based on an initial sample of 500 people representative of the region.
The most important results at a glance:
- An active infection with the virus was detected in a throat swab in two percent of those examined .
- Antibodies against the virus were detected in the blood of 14 percent of the examined . According to initial estimates, you are likely to be immune for the next 6 to 18 months. This means that they cannot become infected and cannot pass on the virus. This value is important in order to estimate the spread of the virus. Virologists believe that the epidemic will stop as soon as around 60 percent of the population has been infected . However, the numbers from Heinsberg are not transferable to all of Germany because the proportion of people who tested positive for the corona virus in the community is higher than in the rest of Germany.
- About 0.37 percent of the people in Gangelt who were found to have the virus died. The mortality rate there is five times lower than in the rest of Germany . According to data from Johns Hopkins University, the rate for all of Germany is currently 1.98 percent. According to the researchers, the reason why apparently fewer people in Gangelt die from the consequences of a corona infection is that a particularly large number of people were tested there.Including many that show hardly any symptoms and often go undetected. The numbers suggest that the coronavirus could be less fatal than feared.However, it was still too early for a reliable projection.
According to the researchers, the numbers suggest that the lockdown was the right decision to contain the number of infections. “Heinsberg slipped past a huge disaster,” said the district district administrator, Stephan Pusch.
Because most people were “so active and disciplined”, it was now possible to enter “phase two”, said Streeck. However, it is important that hygienic behavior continues to be adhered to and that risk groups are given maximum protection . Politicians have to decide whether and which measures are relaxed.
“Dare to get started flexibly”
NRW Prime Minister Armin Laschet had brought possible loosening into play and indicated criteria before the interim results were announced. “Are the rules for the right distance observable and are there also the right protective measures? If that is the case, you can take the flexible approach,” said the CDU politician to the “Handelsblatt.” Protect closing.
Before the Chancellor’s meeting with the Prime Ministers of the federal states on Wednesday, he said: “We need a clear roadmap that will get public and economic life going again.” The fact that many shops are closed should not last any longer “if we do not want to experience mass bankruptcy and a subsequent new mass unemployment”. He also commented on the auto industry. Production there was also partially discontinued because car dealerships were closed. “You could let customers into the shops here, even if the distance rules were adhered to.” This could be an incentive for industry to start producing again.
Source: Der Spiegel