Winter Is Coming, and the Narrative Is About to Shift

It Was “High Season” Not “Low Vaccine” Driving the Southern Surge. And It’s Starting to Invert. The Northeast Is Next.

Covid is a highly seasonal disease and that seasonality varies by region. This has been obvious for over a year and I and many others have laid out graph upon graph proving it.

That’s what makes claims like this so wonderfully disingenuous:

She’s just mistaking seasonality for vaccine efficacy.

Sweden was not even 10% vaccinated until mid-may. but cases dropped 90+% anyhow and deaths basically went to zero because that’s what happens in Sweden in the summer. (and why you never hear about them in the news in august)

They are now coming back into covid season and despite a vaccination rate a full 10 points higher than the US, you’re going to see a cases surge. because vaccines do not stop cases.

And we’re seeing the same seasonal flip in the US. let’s look at the top states for cases growth: (data from NYT available HERE and sorted by 14 day % change)

Notice anything about the location of these states? Yup, ALL are northern.

Winter is Coming | Five Boro Bike Club

Notice something else? Only 3 of 13 are low vaxx vs national average. Vaccination percentage is not predictive of case growth. so, let’s stop pretending that vaccines are stopping cases. Not even the CDC is claiming that.

But Monica wants to talk about hospitalizations. fair enough. again, we see northern states leading the way on 14-day gains as they come into season and the south falls out. And, again, many are above avg in vaccination and vaccination overall does not look predictive. In fact, we see the opposite.

To avoid cherry-picking, let’s look at ALL the data.

I sorted states by % vaccinated from high to low. I then compared the results in those states in terms of 14 day % change in daily hospitalizations.

The trend does not look good for Monica. The top states by vaccination are showing a rise in hospitalizations. The bottom states are showing a drop.

Now this, by itself, does not prove that vaccines cause hospitalizations. clearly, A LOT of this signal is seasonal and there happens to be a N/S vaxx rate divergence.

When run as a scatterplot, we see basically no relationship between vaccination rates and 14 day % change in covid hospitalizations.

(It’s slightly negative, but immaterially)

This relationship is a bit more negative with cases and aligns with the negative VE we saw in the UK among the vaccinated in terms of cases.

But there is a variable where we see strong R2 and that is latitude.

(Explaining 25% of outcome with one variable in a system this complex is actually quite strong. Doing so using a metric as lossy as “latitude of state capital” which may diverge meaningfully from latitude of population centers and may iffy at best in long N-S states, even more so and so early in the transition period most of all.)

This is running rings around vaccination. and it’s a sign of seasonal signal swamping vaxx, which, honestly, looks to be having at best no effect and may well correlate negatively with overall hospitalization. (I want to play with this some more and better understand why the scatterplot and cohort comparisons diverge so much in terms of seeming outcome linkage.)

Cause for further concern is that we are early in seasonal transition, and cases are a leading indicator. They show an R2 of 0.36, so the leading indicator is looking more predictive than the lagging one. This would align with expectation for early transition.

But most worrying is that despite vaccination and despite much more real herd immunity from disease recovery AND a milder variant that, while a bit more contagious, is ~2/3 less lethal, we’re seeing higher cases, deaths, and hospitalizations.

Something is clearly very wrong. [I’m not so sure about that. But let’s hear him out.]

The south and west are dropping in line with seasonal expectation, but the northeast and midwest are rising and are at worse levels than last year by 5X in the NE (most vaccinated part of US) and 2.7X in the MW. Testing is about 2X this time last year, so this adjusts down to 2.5X and 1.35X respectively.

And overall hospitalizations are up, not down vs year ago and so are deaths, both by wide margins. (2.5X and 2.7X respectively) [But to be fair sometimes seasons start a little earlier or reach higher peaks naturally.]

This is not at ALL what one would expect if vaccines were working to stop deaths and hospitalizations (as they seem to be in UK, albeit at closer to 50% VE than the 90’s promised) and with a much lower CFR variant (delta) now predominant. And no, low delta CFR does not look to be a function of vaccines.

I hate to keep landing here and really, truly want to be wrong, but this keeps pulling me back to the “vaccinated superspread hypothesis” which is exactly where we all wish we were not.

“The current surge in covid deaths is caused by the vaccinated.

The covid vaccines are extremely leaky and may well accelerate contracting and carrying covid.

They allow for very high viral loads to go unnoticed and generate a new and severe asymptomatic spread vector to where none existed before.

The high viral loads lead to greater contagion. they may lead to greater severity (but this data is iffy and contested)

Vaccine campaigns cause superspread events because vaccination leads to a 2 week window of 40-100% more covid risk that then gets counted as “unvaccinated” because the definitions are bad.

This combination makes those vaccinated with one dose or more into superspread bombs.”

This is still, I want to stress, a hypothesis and one I hope fails to prove out, but I can still find no better fit to this data and it remains, to my great dismay, the best explanation I can find. (And I’ve been bouncing it off an awful lot of people.)

Proving this out would mean that vaccines have rekindled a fading pandemic, that they are making it worse, not better, and that they and the bigger hammer theory that will emerge from the political mess are going to mean that the northern latitudes are REALLY in for it this winter.

And that’s not a political or epidemiological climate that ANY sane person wants.

I’d much rather get dunked on by Monica than dunk on her because that’s a better world to live in, but the data is the data and it does not care how much any of us would like a wubbie and clutching one to keep real live monsters away will harm us, not help us.

So, we keep digging and we keep learning.

Again, my thanks to all those who are helping. the truth is in here. Somewhere.

Without theory, data science is just about cat memes | by Benjamin Ting | Towards Data Science

Source: El Gato Malo

  1. tunamelt says

    “Covid is a highly seasonal disease”

    I beg to differ. Covid is a highly questionable disease with symptoms that are shared by numerous other diseases. Its who existence is based on the chimera called the pcr test. But thanks for the charts and graphs though.

    1. Ilya G Poimandres says

      Well the loss of smell is pretty neat. It’s some kinda flu, with some kind of gain of function thing done to it (maybe). Doesn’t matter really – a healthy immune system and some hot lemon tea did the trick for me, some ivermectin would do it for others.

      The jabs though, just like AZT with that “HIV that causes AIDS” Gallo/Fauci nonsense, is a serious health risk of the medieval kind. I’d rather drink metallic mercury as a wonder cure, than take these.

      1. ken says

        I lose my smell and taste whenever I am down with the flu. These people are nuts!

      2. guest says

        In February, the people I worked with got themselves vaccinated (I didn’t). In March peanut-butter smelled funny, so much so that I chucked out two jars. Later I came to the conclusion it had to be my smell, not the peanut-butter.
        Was it from the Wuhan flu that the vaccine generated in my co-workers, who then shed it onto me ? How does it work ? I used to get real bad flu attacks, my nose became a faucet for two weeks, but my smell was as usual. How does this Wuhan flu alter the sense of smell ?

        1. Christopher Schulz says

          The spike proteins are thought to attack the ace2 receptors in the olfactory bulb and brain. THANKFULLY Naproxen blocks SARS all strains.

          1. sinip says

            Naproxen the painkiller?

      3. Christopher Schulz says

        Naproxen blocks SARS & FLU.

  2. ken says

    Yes!!! Let’s follow the data.

    Has the virus been isolated? The data says no!

    Are the ‘vaccines’ effective? The data says no!

    Are the ‘vaccines’ ‘safe’? The data says no.

    Are the ‘vaccines’ dangerous? The data says yes. Millions maimed and injured.

    Do the ‘vaccines’ kill? The data says yes! 15,000 dead in the US. 45,000 dead in US, UK and EU combined.

    So why keep pushing this deadly ‘vaccine’ when it does not provide immunity and is extremely dangerous.

    Pay attention boys and girls,,,because they want to kill us!

    No, no,,, you say. Can’t be. They luv us!

    I say,,, give me one other logical reason.

    1. guest says

      Agree, but have this question. If they really wanted to kill millions (and millions) of people, wouldn’t they have released a flu that actually killed people (not only just a fraction of half percent) ?

      1. Ultrafart the Brave says

        “If they really wanted to kill millions (and millions) of people, wouldn’t they have released a flu that actually killed people…”

        The trouble with that strategy is that the perpetrators would be vulnerable to blowback, and also the resulting civilisational collapse would be an uncontrolled chaos. Once a “deadly virus” is out of the bag, it can’t easily be put back in.

        Instead, the path that has been chosen employs an alleged “deadly virus pandemic” conjured up and sustained by a relentless global propaganda campaign, substantiated by a globally mandated fake testing protocol (the notorious RT-PCR test) and enforced by Klaus Schwab’s WEF agents planted in key government and industry positions all over the planet.

        This makes the intended global genocide and associated imposition of mass control measures (including the “vaccine passport”) eminently manageable by the initially encouraged and now increasingly coerced administration of bioweapons disguised as “vaccines”.

        In other words, the fake “pandemic” hysteria has facilitated the controlled and targeted hypodermic delivery of the actual eugenic weapon directly into the arms of millions of clueless lemmings all over the planet.

        The fake “pandemic” provides the rationale for injection of the fake “vaccines”, and these provide both the desired controlled population reduction and the impetus for total tracking and control of any survivors.

        Pure genius, and devilishly cunning.

  3. Dale says

    SARS-Cov2 doesn’t exist. Accordingly, seasonality is nonsense.

    1. Randy Ice PT, CCS says

      True. So the changes in illness patterns with season are due to regular old influenza that has been re-labeled “covid19.” Look back at the 2019 – 2020 graphs and you will see that “covid” deaths and hospitalizations disappeared in late May 2020…….same as every flu season.

      1. Dale says

        For some reason, even people who stringently oppose lockdowns, mask and vaccine mandates cling to this notion that Covid peaks in sizzling July Florida then moves to the cooler Northeast.

    2. Ultrafart the Brave says

      “SARS-Cov2 doesn’t exist.”

      The evidence is increasingly leaning in this direction.

      Problem is, SARS-Cov2 doesn’t have to exist for the fake RT-PCR test to “detect” it. So we can have a “pandemic” without any SARS-Cov2 “virus” (and, apparently, that’s exactly what we’ve been fed).

      “Accordingly, seasonality is nonsense.”

      There’s another problem here. Once the “vaccines” were rolled out in each country, hospitalisations and deaths suddenly spiked. In Australia, where there was and still is much hype about the “deadly Delta variant”, it seems that pretty much all those cases were “fully vaccinated”.

      The conclusion that can be drawn is that the “vaccines” are the “deadly Delta variant”. So, no SARS-Cov2 (except as “detected” by the fake RT-PCR test), but the “vaccines” actually did (and do) make people sick – with what they are labeling as the “deadly Delta variant” (even though the Australian test laboratories readily admit that they have no way to distinguish exactly what it is that they are supposedly “detecting”).

      But back to the issue of “seasonality”…

      Antibody Dependent Enhancement (ADE) suggests that the “vaccinated” will be vulnerable to much worse reactions to respiratory infections than the unvaccinated.

      So we might expect that the “vaccinated” will have increased sickness and death due to ADE as the Winter season approaches, with it’s typical influx of common respiratory bugs (and once again, no SARS-Cov2 required).

      So IMO you are correct – the SARS-Cov2 “virus” looks to be fake – but don’t be surprised to see a massive spike in supposed “COVID” hospitalisations and deaths among the “vaccinated” in the coming Northern Hemisphere Winter.

  4. Ron says

    How can anyone, anywhere, come down with something if the test (PCR) to catch that something (illness) is faulty to begin with. Put simply, the test doctors and nurses are administering DO NOT WORK.

  5. Striketheroot says

    It appears that no matter how many lawsuits are filed or how many scientists and doctors and nurses scream their heads off , it’s “damn the torpedoes full speed ahead”. As long as the MSM controls the psyop /narrative and ignores the evidence this program will continue. If they can keep up the demonization of the unvaxxed into the predicted “die off” then vaxxing the infants and children will be an easy sale to the average American- a large part of the next generations wiped. Turn off the TV and cancel your newspaper and start using the brain God gave you.

  6. Steven Rowlandson says

    Covid-19 is rare and vaccine side effects and injury is common. That is the way it is folks. Take your vitamins and tell your lying governments and MSM to go to hell.

  7. Neil Sutherland says

    the same people (fauci, gates, et. al.) who made the bioweapon cvd19 also made the ‘vaccine’ that is not a vaccine. problem, reaction, solution, no one in their right mind would take a ‘cure’ offered by the villain. also, the writer only looks at US, here he admits vax cases in first two weeks are counted as cvd19 cases. there’s no mention that tests are 99% false positive, that natural immune s 99.9% survival for under 70 with no comorbidities, that no preventive or early treatment is allowed, that India state of 250 million reached zero deaths with ivermectin, that cvd19 cases correlate 100% around the world with vax rates.

  8. Malatok says

    Moar delightful fear porn to keep the sheeple jumpy.

    YOU are the disease, their covaids death squirt the cure. I only read and listen to experts that have a functioning moral compass…not shills.

    Nuremberg 2 is coming and all these poison pushing genocidal animals will be caged, judged and executed.
    Presstitutes and vertical pigs are what stand between us and the globo pedovores. All 3 groups will be going to Nuremberg 2. That simple.
    PfiZer macht frei
    Same as it ever waZ
    Reiner Fuellmich…update on “legal” situation
    Dr Robert Malone inventor of mRNA lays it out and warns on Jimmy Dore, Youlube

    1. SimmieQ says

      Thank you <3

  9. Bruce Wayne says

    Israel, 90 percent vaccinated and hospitalizations and deaths are by far in the vaccinated as well as growing in nubers at alarming rate as Israel mandated a 3rd shot and now is considering a 4th………..their immune systems are shot after the vaccine and they have no immunity to the varriants being caused by the shots in their own bodies…………they very well could begin to reach mass dieoffs soon as they will not be able to take booster shots fast enough to compensate for their destroyed immune systems

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