WATCH: Nobel-Prize Winning Biologist: We Should Have Never Listened to Epidemiologists
"Epidemiologists see their job, not as getting things correct, but as preventing an epidemic. So therefore if they say it is 100-times worse than it’s going to be, then it’s ok"
Scientists have “circled the wagons” during the coronavirus pandemic, Nobel laureates have argued, and been afraid to have a truly open debate about whether the virus is as deadly as feared and if lockdowns are justified.
Michael Levitt, a winner of the chemistry prize in 2013 and, since February, an outspoken contrarian voice on the pandemic, said he had received only “abuse” from fellow scientists for questioning predictions of catastrophic death tolls.
Using statistical analysis across different countries with varying degrees of lockdown, Professor Levitt has repeatedly and publicly argued that the virus slows far earlier than would be expected if everyone was susceptible, possibly indicating some kind of prior immunity.
Just 15 per cent of the population needs to be infected to reach herd immunity, he believes.
“The data had very clear things to say,” he told the Lindau Nobel Laureate Meeting, an annual gathering of prizewinning academics and young researchers, itself moved online due to coronavirus.
But when sharing his results, “nobody said to me, ‘let me check your numbers’. They all just said, ‘stop talking like that’,” he said.
Epidemiologists see their job, not as getting things correct, but as preventing an epidemic. So therefore if they say it is 100-times worse than it’s going to be, then it’s ok. Their mistake was that we listened to them. They said the same thing for Ebola, they said the same thing for Bird Flu, no one shut down for them. We should never have listened to the epidemiologists. They have caused hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of suffering and damage, mainly on the younger generation. This is going to be a tragedy. It’s going to make 9/11 look like a baby story. This is much, much worse. I am not against lockdown, I am against stupid lockdown, without considering the full picture, i.e. not just combating a virus, that is exactly as dangerous as flu, but also avoiding the economic damage, that every country has caused itself except Sweden. We have really, really failed as a group. There have been smart people in Sweden, and that’s about it. Germany is getting reinfected because they cut down too strongly. You know the level of stupidity that has been going on here has been amazing, and it just required a little bit of discussion of smart people. I am not saying I am right, but I would like people to contra me on the details.
At the beginning of the crisis, scientists failed to collectively ask basic questions like “does this thing grow exponentially”, said Professor Levitt, Robert W. and Vivian K. Cahill professor in cancer research at Stanford University.
Physicists and theoretical chemists “who understand trajectories” were often better qualified to analyse the pandemic than epidemiologists, who “see their job not as getting things correct, but preventing an epidemic”, leading them to overstate the threat, he argued in a debate on the role of science in a crisis.
“We should never have listened to the epidemiologists,” Professor Levitt said. “They have caused hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of suffering and damage, mainly on the younger generation,” he said. “It’s going to make 9/11 look like a baby story.”
Instead of “one or two” voices dominating the debate, scientific institutions like the Royal Society should have formed a committee back in February to convene a range of experts, Professor Levitt argued.
“Instead, we let economics and politics dictate the science,” he said. “For me, the worst opposition I got was from very, very prominent scientists, who were so scared that the non-scientists would break quarantine and infect them.”
Many experts have pushed back against Professor Levitt’s arguments. As yet, there is no proof of widespread immunity to Covid-19, and the spread has slowed in many countries following lockdowns.
Still, Professor Levitt was not the only laureate to worry that scientists had hidden uncertainty during the pandemic. Saul Perlmutter, a physics prizewinner in 2011, said when scientists felt “under attack” because the “democratic system” fails to heed them, there was a “tendency to circle the wagons and hide all the conversations that need to happen”.
Scientists get “scared” about whether politicians will respond to them – and so take a “frozen moment of science” and “stick to that line until somebody hears it in the political world”, said Professor Perlmutter [the 2011 Nobel Prize in Physics], Franklin W. and Karen Weber Dabby of physics at the University of California, Berkeley.
Nobel laureate Michael Levitt on why:
-science has disgraced itself during the pandemic
-epidemiologists suck at their jobs
-we should never have shutdown
-Sweden got it right@MLevitt_NP2013 – normally the nicest person, but his fury is evident herehttps://t.co/xiqEvrhTF3
— Gummi Bear (@gummibear737) June 30, 2020
2 minutes of what should be required viewing. This is 2013 Nobel Prize Chemist Michael Levitt. He has been screaming from the mountaintops to anyone who would listen, that we were not following the data, not following trajectories, not adjusting our responses based on new info https://t.co/xTxEW5VZbE
— therealarod1984 (@therealarod1984) June 30, 2020
But Peter Doherty, an immunology expert who won the medicine prize in 1996, defended other aspects of the scientific response to coronavirus, arguing that in the hunt for treatments and a vaccine, researchers had worked with “extraordinary speed, and with extraordinary cooperation”.
“I think science comes out of it very well in fact, and I think that’s the general perception,” said Professor Doherty, laureate professor of microbiology and immunology at the University of Melbourne.
Source: Times Higher Education magazine