War Will Not Start With a Ukrainian Provocation

I saw that a pair of commentators who were earlier saying that a Moscovite military offensive against Kiev will not happen, are now saying that it might happen, but only as a response to a provocation of the other side. A provocation perhaps provided by the Ukrainian far-right, or their American or British trainers.

Come on people, let’s not be insulting our own intelligence in this way.

In 2015 the Turks pre-planned the shooting down of a Russian Su-25 in an ambush and murdered the pilot. In 2018 an Israeli bombing of Syria used a Russian surveillance plane as cover resulting in the deaths of 15 Russian servicemen.

Neither of these resulted in a Russian war against Turkey or Israel. Why not? Because incidents like these do not result in wars if the injured party isn’t already bent on war. Conversely, when a party is already bent on war no provocation is needed.

It would be totally bizarre of Russia to amass great military capacity then outsource the power to decide whether that capacity will be used to somebody else. Especially to its sworn enemy.

Provocations or not, Putin will retain total control over whether the force concentrated is used. He can order it into action without citing a recent Ukrainian provocation, just as easily as he has in the past declined to overreact to injury in Syria.

You don’t amass 60% of your best maneuver elements and then subordinate the call on whether they go into action to whether the enemy has been dumb/bold/careless enough to serve you up with a useable pretext.

It is Russia’s online lawyers who are most concerned whether Russia will be able to cite a semi-decent pretext or not. But Moscow itself isn’t necessarily out for a popularity contest. Its focus is on matters rudimentary and existential, not on what may have taken place in the last five minutes.

The list of injuries to Russians that Moscow did not overreact to (or did not react to at all) over the years in Latvia, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, Donbass, Estonia is nearly limitless.

Provocations don’t cause wars. And wars don’t hinge on provocations.

In 2014 when the post-coup Kiev was bearing down on Donetsk Moscow intervened only just enough to balance the sides out and prevent Kiev from being able to subjugate Donetsk militarily, instead insisting that the Maidanites with a legitimacy deficit in the East negotiate with the East just like Yanukovich had in talks backed by Germany, Russia and France negotiated power-sharing and early elections with the West.

If this time somebody on the Ukrainian side does something stupid and the Russian side is off racing to Kiev it’s because it would have happened anyway. Over issues that are much older than the immediate incident cited and much more important.



Putin had Strelkov exiled from the Donbass as a price for Moscow aid, and gradually subordinated the whole Donbass rebel scene to FSB intermediaries to ensure that he would never again be a dog wagged by the tail into adventures he didn’t see coming, and he’s now going to outsource the decision of whether there is a war on whether some drunken Right Sector dudes do something or not? Please let’s be serious.
  1. Peter says

    This statement is misleading, this I would expect to be framed by RT, or what…
    Because incidents like these do not result in wars if the injured party isn’t already bent on war. Conversely, when a party is already bent on war no provocation is needed.

    1. TZVI says

      If they were 100% for war the airports / runways receiving military supplies would be to damaged to receive them.

  2. TZVI says

    Marko, et. al,

    This is a complex issue. However the end result will be simple and straightforward. I do not agree that “provocation” will not be the Causa Belli as for the Russian Federation.

    It really depends on the nature and scope of the Provocation. If the Ukrainian forces are slaughtering civilians ( and military age men) in the LPR and DPR, then the provocation crosses all lines with Russia, and a military response should be expected.

    Russians are part Asian, and more patient then many Slavic peoples, and much more so than our modern “western” peoples…they bide their time and respond when it favors them being successful.

    1. Peter says

      they bide their time and respond when it favors them being successful.

      Thirty years I long to have them stand up. This is the time. As you know all too well, VV and his team know when the time came… it came now. They were not bent on war. It was shoved down their throat. You don’t talk humanitarian issues when having nowhere to retreat. The hell is for the others…

      1. TZVI says

        30 years is a generation and a half, Putin has been in charge for 20+ years or one full generation. I agree they would rather not have War, what sane person would with Nuclear armaments? However they prepared for it ( War) as best they could.

        If WWIII breaks out, the worst of it would be AFTER most nuclear arms were used. The Nuclear power plants woud have issues cooling reactors and spend fuel rods, it might take a few weeks, but many would melt down and out of containment…imagine 100+ Fukushima’s in the USA alone, with no one to organize a massive clean up. ( Even Chernobyl still needs shielding and monitoring to this very day).

        Much of the radiation in a clear strike is used to create the blast, many will be “air bursts” as you get a bigger effect without the ground absorbing some shock. ( air burst make very little “fall out”) In contrast a nuclear fuel core sheds radioactive isotopes at a high rate, for eons…

        Putin has been warning of war for a few years now, he recently warned Macron as well ( in a honest diplomatic way)…Macron may not be the brightest, but even he is trying to separate himself from this madness, or so it appears.

        1. Peter says

          You know, we all speak from what we are. Some of us will put up with whatever – to live, some will not. While the first group will not agree that things are black and white, and will live in slavery in order to live, I hold for self evident that things do boil down to black and white-ness. That is what means the expression sub specie aeternitatis. If God wants people to survive, He will make sure they will. Our business is to show, what we are made of. On what side we stand. It is painful.

          1. TZVI says

            It the Hebrew Prophets there is the prophecy of the end of days, war of Gog and Magog, etc. What is interesting is Mentioned in these verses is Germany ( Gomer) and her Allies, Lybia, Iran ( Persia), Libya, and the “Far North”, etc. coming to do battle with spears, shields, sword and Buckler ( middle age technology at best). ( Ezekiel 38)

            Of the 1/3 of Israelites that will survive ( and it is not clear if that’s 1/3 before or after this battle), and it will only be so with Godly intervention. ( Zecharia 13: 7-9)

            So we see from a biblical perspective that there will be survivors, and they will be civilized enough to make 13th century tools.

            Keeping in mind WE have the ability to change a “bad” prophecy with good actions. (like in Ninve, Jona, etc.) If we could become more moral, treat people with respect, not cheat, steal, murder, and Applaud Abominations; we would mitigate or eliminate the need for the “bad” prophecy to occur. Prophecy for the “good” ( of good tidings) is never canceled.

            That being said, I am an Expat in the Southern Hemisphere at least partially because this has been a long time in the making.

            1. Jerôme says

              Tzvi, you are khazarian jew, and you should know,most evil in this world is from the zio-nazi jews, globalists and megabanster jews…Your Hebrew prophets? The modern jews aten’t Hebrews! The modern jews are the descendants of the Serpent cultutes of Mesoamerica trough the Canaanites= Serpent people!!!

    2. Mark says

      “It really depends on the nature and scope of the Provocation. If the Ukrainian forces are slaughtering civilians ( and military age men) in the LPR and DPR, then the provocation crosses all lines with Russia, and a military response should be expected.”

      That would not be a provocation, but an actual invasion, and I have maintained from the outset that that is why the Russians are there, just on the other side of the border. As a silent warning; we’re watching you, and don’t try it if you know what’s good for you.

      Ukraine is easily infiltrated by Russia; Russian is widely spoken, and another Russian speaker or two would not stand out. The Russians likely have intelligence that Ukraine is planning something. And that would not even be surprising – Zelensky’s popularity is sinking like he was chained to Justin Trudeau, and he badly needs a patriotism-fueled distraction.

    3. Jerôme says

      Goy, most Russians are Viking descendants trough the Varyags! But the khazarian jews knows shit about that!

  3. padre says

    Who are Moscovites? Does itmean, they are not the rel Russians, but people from Moscow pretending to be Russians,while the rwal Russians are in Kiew Russ?

    1. Giorgi Kladbishche says

      Eastern Europeans think we actually call people from Moscow “Muscovites”.

    2. TZVI says

      The Russ were always a ( large) minority ruling over local peoples:



      1. Jerôme says

        You dumb jew! Kievan Rus was ruled by Vikings! And most Russians are Vikings, yhe best warriors in the world, trough the Varyags( Varangians)!!!
        Dumb jew….

  4. DannyWhite says

    USA shipping military hardware directly to Kiev using private contractors.
    USA preparing to invade Russia and strike Moscow

  5. Charles Bausman says

    Isn’t it possible that the Kremlin is thinking this way: We have to take a robust stand against Nato encroachment, and this is a good time to do it. We will start a diplomatic offensive backed up by moving military might to the West to show that we are serious. This entails the possibility that the global deep state will choose to start a war with us, something they have wanted for many years, probably via a major provocation. But it is also possible that the West will back down and compromise, because they are weak and divided, and cooler heads than the deep state’s will realize that they have more to lose than to gain from a war. We would actually prefer not to fight a war, but if they choose to start one, we will fight. We would probably win the war, but war outcomes are difficult to predict, and even a small probability of an unfavorable outcome is not a risk we would take on our own initiative, but if it is forced on us, we will take it. In any case, we can’t just sit here and let this encroachment continue, so we will make a move now that carries the risk of war. Th longer we can keep up the tension without war breaking out, the more Western alliances and countries themselves will fracture, arguing about what to do, which helps us. It is the right move to make at this time. So that would be a scenario in which Russia won’t start the war on its own. I have no idea if this is what the Kremlin is thinking, I’m just saying that it strikes me as a possibility.

    1. GMC says

      Another thing we see is how many countries allied to the USA , including themselves, have down and out economies and a destitute domestic atmosphere. In the past, the medicine was to start a war to get everyone sidetracked and make believe that the War will cure all the ailments of a down and out country. The US, E U, Britain, Turkey, Ukraine, and many others come to mind and we all know that the USA is pushing for war. War looks inevitable from where I sit and I sit very close to the Front. Not as close as Texas is, but that can change in a day.

    2. Field Empty says

      I think it’s a possibility. I’m not discounting anything. But at the same time, I don’t see much evidence of NATO fracturing. I think Biden got ahead of that when he very early on said that no Americans would fight in a war for Ukraine. They broadly all have the same position, none of them will fight, but they will keep virtue signaling with arms shipments which accidentally also de facto serves to goad Russia to escalate. Also, the longer Russia maintains that concentration of force the less shock value it has and the more everyone just goes back to their normal business. To keep the pressure going you would have to keep adding stuff ad infinitum.

      I think you’re correct that Russia seeks to avoid war whenever possible, it will first exhaust all other options on the escalation ladder. I think you’re also correct that what we have seen so far is a Russian escalation short-of-war. But if Moscow determines that all escalation rungs short of a live-fire offensive have been tried and have definitely failed there won’t be any further warning.

    3. Hostage (Raptar) Driver says

      The west will not back down. If you have any inkling of history you will know that they’ve only doubled down.

    4. Jerôme says

      Charles, you are from Lancaster,PA, living in Russia, see Russia Insider…The Pittsburgh astronomical layout tells me a lot! ( Living there for few years)….You should know, Kali-yuga( Fire ending age) ends in 2025, so the Blue zionazi West wants attack the Red jew East, a final war set up for last two centuries! There shall be the final Armageddon= WW3 war between the bankrupt USAtan and Christian Russia! Don’t you see St.George-the Dragon= USAtan slayer at the center of the Two headed eagle? Sitting on white horse of Christ, slaying( spearing) the USAtan??? Russia will slay the zionazi UDtael= USAtan up to just one hour!!! But there will be no winners, only billions of dead people, with no one to burry them! See also your apocalyptic Georgia Guidestone from Skull& Bones lodge, opened on March 22= 322, 1980!

  6. Ultrafart the Brave says

    Another thought-provoking article by the author – very relevant given current times.

    Just a nitpick for the sake of accuracy (sorry, folks, I can’t help it)…

    In 2015 the Turks pre-planned the shooting down of a Russian Su-25 in an ambush and murdered the pilot.

    The Turks ambushed and shot down an Su-24, a swing-wing twin engine tactical fighter-bomber very similar to the American F-111. Both aircraft types are crewed by a pilot and a navigator. In the Turkish attack on the Su-24 (which was filmed by a pre-positioned media crew), the pilot was killed by small arms fire from the ground after ejecting from the aircraft, while the navigator survived and was rescued by Russian Special Forces.

    The Su-25 is a subsonic ground attack / close air support platform similar in role to the American A10.

  7. Empire_Spokesperson says

    Maybe you don’t understand what is happening here at all, it’s rather obvious anyway. Turks shot down a plane and Israelis hid behind Russians while Syria fired. All that is not caused for war. Russians don’t have twitchy fingers. And all those events didn’t took place in Russia’s backyard, NATO wans’t trying to sneak in bring all those hardware and on and on. Please spare us from your childish writing because that is discouraging people from visiting this site.

  8. Jerôme says

    Dear Readers, we are at the end of Kali-yuga in 2025, and at the end of Great Precessional Year( Anno Magnus), with Novus Ordo Seclorum set up for 2032, followed by the Great Jubilee Year of 2nd Coming of Christ, in 2033! This age of Fire= Kali, ends up in apocalypse by Fire and quakes over 15 on Richter scale afyer re-polarisation of Earth! Before that, the Blue and Red jew will kill ypu put en masse, in WW3= Atmageddon!!! So,your politics are like that of Red Republican vs. Blue Demon-rats! Two colored One Party in Rat-child pocket! You better get straight with God! Soon your soul shall be jarvested!!!

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