Vaccine Effectiveness Drops Sharply Even for Severe Disease, Goes Into NEGATIVE for Some Groups — New Lancet Study From Sweden
"With a number of subgroups even showing negative efficacy against severe outcomes"
Editor’s summary: Effectivness against infection drops to zero after just 120 days for AZ. Overall effectiveness against severe outcome drops down to 20% at eights months, but for some groups at that time it is already negative. (More severe Covid outcomes among the vaccinated.)
The study (a Lancet pre-print) finds that Pfizer vaccine effectiveness wanes from 92% at day 15-30 to 47% at day 121-180, and from day 211 (seven months) and onwards “no effectiveness could be detected”. For AstraZeneca, vaccine effectiveness “was generally lower and waned faster, with no effectiveness detected from day 121 [four months] and onwards”. (The figure they found was actually negative, minus-19%.)
While effectiveness against severe outcomes held up for many groups over nine months, it was found to wane significantly among men, older frail people, and people with comorbidities, contributing to an overall fall from 89% at day 15-30 to 42% from day 181 (six months) and onwards, with a number of subgroups even showing negative efficacy against severe outcomes.
The graphs included in the paper are reproduced below. Note the negative effectiveness against infection at nine months (top chart) and the effectiveness against severe outcomes down to around 20% at eight months (bottom chart).
The confirmation here of vaccine effectiveness against infection declining to zero will not come as a surprise to readers of the Daily Sceptic, though it may baffle readers of the New Scientist and others living in the parallel reality of highly effective vaccines. The sharp waning against severe disease is more of a surprise given recent data from PHE/UKHSA, and is worth watching closely.
Source: The Daily Sceptic