Ukrainian Offensive Inflicts Staggering Defeat on Russia

A key portion of the front collapses after just 4 days of offensive

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As the 3rd day of the Ukrainian offensive in Kharkov closed a number of commentators asserted that the Ukrainian advance of 50 kilometers “did not matter” because it had not reached “operational depths”.

That is to say, it had not yet taken territory that would represent a strategic payoff.

Then on the morning of the 4th day news came in that Ukrainians had taken the part of Kupyansk to the west of Oskil river, after the Russians had abandoned it without a fight.

The importance of Kupyansk lies in its position as a railway hub, and the Ukrainians now had fire control over its railway station, and the ability to frustrate the Russian supply of Izyum further south by rail. — That’s right, the Ukrainians had just reached operational depths.

That would have been bad enough, but then before noon the news spread that the Russians were hastily evacuating Izyum.

It is difficult to convey what this means.

It means that the Ukrainians have delivered a staggering defeat to the Russians.

In just 4 days the Russians lost a vast area — everything beyond the Oskil river gone. Just like that.

Positions that took months for Russia to capture and expand were gone in an instant. (The whole of March to take the city itself, followed by battles to expand the bridgehead over Seversky Donets to its south.)

Particularly around Izyum, the Russian military had fought bloody close-quarter battles to take and expand positions beyond the Oskil and Seversky Donetsk and was now giving it all back in a rout.

Izyum didn’t hold just this symbolic importance as the place of previous steep fighting that Russian had to pay a considerable price in lives to take. The very reason it was being fought over with tenacity in the first place was its strategic value.

Izyum is the gateway to Slavyansk and Kramatorsk, the remaining two large cities in Donetsk oblast in Ukrainian hands. Taking it enveloped these two twin cities from the north and opened up a way to reach them without having to deal with rivers. (An approach from the east via Lyman would have meant having to deal with a river.)

For the Ukrainians to have captured Izyum — and without even having to fight for it directly is massive and impressive. They have staged an operation that at this moment is beyond the capabilities of the Russians, and has been for several months.

The “funny” thing is that as late as yesterday evening, a number of commentators were asserting that the Ukrainian 50-kilometer march on Kupyansk which caused the Russian collapse was folly that was bound to result in the Ukrainians being decimated (or encircled) when the Russians regrouped and counterattacked into Ukrainian spearheads from the flanks.

Some even went so far as to claim that the whole thing was a consciously laid Russian trap from the start.

These folk sure do have massive egg on their face today.

And the village idiot:

Some of these people will now concede, others will squirm and hide, and the village idiot will keep on digging.

But one can see that even as old delusions are being shattered new coping mechanisms are already being constructed.

The next one will likely be that Russia’s setbacks, defeats, and quagmire are understandable since Russia is fighting not just Ukraine, but the entire world and NATO.

This is a load of shit. Yes, Ukraine has substantial, important, and critical NATO support. But this is not the cause of Russian quagmire and debacles, and Russia is not against the full weight of NATO. Hell, Russia hasn’t even been up against the full weight of Ukraine. By WW1 standards Ukraine hasn’t even mobilized particularly hard yet. The 35-million Ukraine has *fewer* men under arms than did 5-million Serbia in 1914.

The first cause of Moscow’s troubles isn’t what is on the other side, but what Moscow itself has gone to war with.

This is the story of an ant and bull. The story of the ant that went and attacked the bull.

On the one hand you have a state with 35-million people which is fighting a war of national preservation. And the other you have Moscow which has unloaded the entire weight of the war on the 250,000 officers and contract soldiers of the land combat arms. (I’m not talking about how many are deployed but about how many are even eligible.)

How the hell are 250,000 ever supposed to subdue 35 million??

This is like Monaco attacking France.

If the Ukrainian state didn’t disintegrate on impact (it didn’t), or if the surprise opening campaign failed to deny Ukraine access to much of its potential manpower in places like Kharkov, Dnipro, Zaporozhye (it didn’t), then in the long run — as Ukraine bought itself time to stand up more forces — then Russian prospects would deteriorate by the month.

I was talking about this since the second week of the war, but the brilliant minds of the internet Group Therapy Brigade knew better.

One day it will be interesting to chronicle the progression of their copes and goalpost shifting, but today I am going to say only this:

I’m sorry, but you don’t get to hang this one on NATO. It wasn’t NATO who ordered Russian groupings to move into Ukraine without notice, diffused over six different axes, and only after shedding (!) a third of their manpower (their serving conscripts).

The responsibility for this rests squarely on the shoulders of the Schwab-loving technocrat and COVID bubble boy occupying the Kremlin.

Instead of decreeing that his march on Kiev warranted adding even more conscripts (by freezing the discharges of serving conscripts even as new ones were recruited), he banished even those already in service from going along with their units.

The psychological operation against the Ukrainian state that was the “Special Military Operation” had failed within the first 3 days. It was at this time when a difficult decision (one way or the other) had to be made. Instead, the Bubble Boy decided to keep kicking the can down the road and six months later we are where we are.

I wrote on March 13:

Putin’s ‘great’ news: the war can continue to be fought with one arm only

Launching a halfway war has already proven a mistake. Reassuring the nation that the war can continue to victory as a halfway effort without greater Russian mobilization and sacrifices could prove to be another.

A different leader might have opted to tell the nation this was a critical moment for the war and that an all-national push was needed to end this quickly. Putin has chosen the opposite.

Now even the north is in doubt:

7 Comments
  1. peterinanz says

    Well…..I realized, two weeks into this…what…”special” whatever, what the Kremlin cabal’s capabilities were.
    Still, this is a surprise.

    You were/are correct in your writings, of course. You are not correct in assuming hat Putintards will change their views, or even worse, admit they were wrong. Cults don’t work that way.
    You are not correct in another thing I’ll write a bit more about at the end.

    I am actually surprised that you still write about this shitshow. A Rusophile who isn’t a Putintard. Rare species for sure. Especially in the hysterical world of contemporary Internet.

    Russian people will need people like you in times ahead.
    Perhaps you could also start to write about what, and how to, do which could help an average Russian in times ahead.

    That other thing: you believe that, should Kremlin decide to go full war path/mobilization things for RF will go fine. Maybe, in time. It would require a massive effort I, personally, just don’t see happening.
    One can mobilize a million men (actually, men and women; equality etc.). Making effective armed forces from that mass of flesh isn’t easy, even in peace.
    Personally, I don’t see that happening.

    Time will tell.

    Reply
    1. Noragami says

      Oh, Putin will mobilise alright, but only when it’s too late to bring swift victory, and it will only be done amateurishly. The meat grinder must continue to chew up men.

      Why? Because, as I have said for many months, both Zelensky and Putin are stooges playing theit part in a grotesque Khazarian Mafia ritual sarifice of the “goyim”.

      The Khazarian Mafia trace their ancestry back to the very areas of Ukraine currently occupied by clashing forces. The KM are cleaning house, and conducting a sick cult ritual, at one and the same time.

      War shatters societies, so that they may be rebuilt to new, Khazarian Mafia models. This brings the “great reset”. And, just maybe, it brings Khazarian re-colonisation of Ukraine.

      Reply
  2. YakovKedmi says

    (The Biden crew suckered Grand-Protector V.V. Putin & crew into attacking Ukraine.)

    __________________
    In the past 100 days the Ministry of War issued a report every day, announcing that every day at least 500 Ukrainian soldiers died, half of the weaponry and equipment were destroyed, every Ukrainian brigade lost combat-capability.

    Suddenly, out-of-nowhere, on August 29 a Ukrainian army group showed up on the 200km Kershon front-line and started an attack in three major directions (where did they come from? how did they get here ? are they the ghosts of the dead Azovs ?)

    Suddenly, out-of-nowhere, on September 6, a Ukrainian tank column showed up at Andriivka, cut through the line, and the momentum carried to the river 50km away. (where did they come from? How did they get here? Are they the ghosts of the Lyzichansk Brigade that were left on the wrong side of the river on purpose?)

    —So much for the reports of the wooden-faced Lt-general from the Ministry of War & truth

    Compare the performance of dead soldiers and destroyed equipment in the past two weeks to that of the Wagner Brigade. Six weeks ago they cut through the line at Pisky. In the following five weeks they managed to make it to the other end of the village —according to reports, their biggest obstacle was an unfinished highway overpass of the imcomplete beltway around Donetsk city.

    btw, what happened at the far-east military games ? Who won the war ?
    _________________________
    In March, Antony Empire was very hopeful that now the second phase is starting, the invincible Army of Pan-Slav Liberation is now under the direction of competent war-mongers who know their business and will wage a textbook war —no more meddling by half-wit politicians and bureaucrats in Moscow.

    https://anti-empire.com/is-russia-capitulating-nope-russia-got-a-lot-more-serious/

    https://anti-empire.com/the-withdrawal-from-kiev-is-russian-escalation-its-the-transformation-from-a-psy-op-to-a-textbook-war/

    https://edwardslavsquat.substack.com/p/i-am-in-awe-of-the-sheer-ruthlessness

    A huge circle around Kramatorks would be formed, and Donetsk would be liberated from 60,000 Ukrainian soldiers. —-Five months later we may conclude that the deckedout warmongers of the Expeditionary Force picked up the wrong text-book in April.

    __________________
    >>>> “issued passports stating >we are here to stay forever<"
    It only took the lynch-goons of the Ukrainian Cheka —who would never go anywhere near the front-line where there is a chance that a Donetsk conscript soldier might shoot at them with his Mauser— only a few hours to move into the recovered villages, and start lording it over UN-armed old men and women. Those people in the territories liberated by the Pan-Slav Expeditionary Force took the Russians at their words —now the Grand-Protector of the Mother of all Russias left them in a lurch.
    The residents of Odessa are re-considering their options and attitudes as we speak —I'm sure.

    Reply
    1. Abraham Lincoln says

      Dream on you racist Jewish supremacist. Your Zio Nazi lies are now totally pathetic just like the successful Zio Nazi offensive in the Kherson region and Russian collapse there resulting in over 10k Ukrainian casualties and hundreds of UKrainian armoured vehicles destroyed etc. That is what you call success?

      What matters is how many Ukrainian soldiers Russians kill or wound and how much Ukrainian military equipment the Russians destroy. Territory does not matter as shown by the Russian victory in World War 2.

      If large numbers of Ukrainian soldiers and lots of their equipment is destroyed it is a victory for Russia and the territory will be retaken quickly as in the South. I do agree Russia needs to destroy the Ukrainian command and control infrastructure and the Ukrainian leadership.

      Russia also likely needs at least another 100k soldiers to take part in the war as the territory of Ukraine is just too big for 150 to 200 k soldiers to take even if they had no amry at all. .

      A military expert explained the reasons for the regrouping of Russian troops in the areas of Balakleya and Izyum

      September 10, 2022, 17: 59 Photo: Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation Text: Andrey Rezchikov The Russian Defense Ministry carried out a whole range of measures to mislead the Armed Forces of Ukraine, created the illusion that we have “weak defense” and allegedly there is no information about the preparation of an offensive in the areas of Balakleya and Izyum, now the main task is to defeat the group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, military expert Konstantin Sivkov told VZGLYAD newspaper. On Saturday, the Defense Ministry announced the regrouping of troops in the areas of Balakleya and Izyum.

      “Our military knew that an offensive was being prepared, so now the troops are regrouping to destroy the group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU), which came to the areas of Balakleya and Izyum. It should be borne in mind that there are no fortified areas there, so the task of destroying the most combat-ready Ukrainian units will be solved quite successfully. This will take a few more days, ” said Konstantin Sivkov, Doctor of Military Sciences.

      The expert emphasized that over the past three days, as it became known from the Defense Ministry’s report, more than 2 thousand Ukrainian and foreign militants, as well as over a hundred armored vehicles and artillery were destroyed. “The Armed Forces of Ukraine suffer large daily losses. Now the main task is to defeat the advancing group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, deprive it of its potential, knock out equipment that is located not in cities and fortified areas, but in open spaces. The Armed Forces of Ukraine should not have the strength and means to conduct an effective defense, ” the source explained.

      ADVERTISEMENT On Saturday, the official representative of the Ministry of Defense, Lieutenant General Igor Konashenkov, announced the regrouping of Russian troops in the areas of Balakleya and Izyum within three days “to achieve the stated goals of the special military operation to liberate Donbass.” Konashenkov also noted that during the transfer, diversionary and demonstration activities were carried out with the designation of real actions of the troops. “In order to prevent damage to the Russian troops, the enemy was dealt a powerful fire defeat with the use of aircraft, rocket troops and artillery,” the Lieutenant General added.

      Sivkov emphasizes that the diversionary maneuvers were carried out in order to “pull the AFU strike group out of the fortified areas.” “If this group would have remained in Slavyansk or Kramatorsk, how many would have had to” pick out ” it? And now it’s in the palm of your hand. Therefore, a whole complex of measures was carried out to mislead the enemy, creating the illusion that we have weak defenses in this area and allegedly there is no information about the preparation of the offensive. The enemy was misled about the location and actions of our troops, ” the expert added.

      Reply
      1. The Enforcer says

        This Abraham Lincoln ist a perfect example of a Nazi. Evil and dumb to the core.

        Reply
  3. YakovKedmi says

    In five months of attrition, the Army of Liberation & Pan-Slav Freedom managed to make it back to where it was five months ago. The anti-Russian “South Front” records the progress:—

    https://southfront.org/military-situation-in-ukraine-on-march-12-2022-map-update/
    https://southfront.org/military-situation-in-ukraine-on-april-12-2022-map-update/
    https://southfront.org/military-situation-in-ukraine-on-september-12-2022-map-update/

    We are back to the question Yakov Kedmi asked at the end of March— is that it, this what this huff & puff and war was for ? Luhansk (maybe) and the North Shore of Azov ? we killed and maimed a hundred thousand Russians for this ?!?

    Reply
  4. Blackledge says

    “I was talking about this since the second week of the war, but the brilliant minds of the internet Group Therapy Brigade knew better.” This is true: you called it from the start, and should receive credit for doing so as credit is due. You nailed it.

    I wanted to believe NATO’s proxy war would end in abject defeat, as I have long hoped for since 1999. But still I was unsure which way it would go. Over time, it looked to me as though Ukrainian forces were sure to lose, sooner or later, but I was concerned about Russia’s growing losses in personnel and equipment. Still, I thought Marko was being over-the-top negative.

    Now I see that he was, and is, right – and I was very wrong. But I would like to think that owning up to your errors is the hallmark of a mature adult, and I was oh so wrong about the Russian Armed Forces and Russia’s leaders. Very wrong.

    It is sad – pathetic, even – that non-military bloggers like Orlov, the Faker, convicted sex offender Scott Ritter and many, many others cling to their delusions and continue to lie to the public, over and over again about Russia’s defeat. They remind me of the American imbeciles that actually believe Q-Anon BS: “trust the plan,” “two more weeks,” sealed indictments soon to come,” etc.

    Reply

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