Ukrainian Military Intelligence Suggests Russia Can Smash to Dnieper With Just 100,000 Troops

Claims will attempt to do so by February

Editor’s: note: The head of the Ukrainian military intelligence claims Russia is gearing up to invade by January or early February at the latest. Curiously the accompanying Ukrainian graphic of the “short-term perspective” has the Russians kicking off operations with just 94,000 troops, and taking all of left-bank Ukraine (including the eastern suburbs of Kiev) regardless. In other words, to be able to sell the invasion scare Ukraine has to pretend it would be helpless in the face of just 40 Russian “battalion tactical groups”.


Russia has more than 92,000 troops amassed around Ukraine’s borders and is preparing for an attack by the end of January or beginning of February, the head of Ukraine’s defense intelligence agency told Military Times.

Such an attack would likely involve airstrikes, artillery and armor attacks followed by airborne assaults in the east, amphibious assaults in Odessa and Mariupul and a smaller incursion through neighboring Belarus, Ukraine Brig. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov told Military Times Saturday morning in an exclusive interview.

Russia’s large-scale Zapad 21 military exercise earlier this year proved, for instance, that they can drop upwards of 3,500 airborne and special operations troops at once, he said.

Budanov. Intelligence officer, or propagandist?

The attack Russia is preparing, said Budanov, would be far more devastating than anything before seen in the conflict that began in 2014 that has seen some 14,000 Ukrainians killed.

Speaking to the Washington Post on Friday, Ukraine’s new Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said it was unclear whether Russian President Vladimir Putin has yet decided to attack.

But Russia is building capacity to do so, Budanov told Military Times, increasing troop levels and weapons systems in occupied Crimea and staging systems like Iskandar short-range ballistic missile systems and other weapons elsewhere near the border. And he scoffed at suggestions that the brutal weather conditions during that time of the year would dissuade the Russians from attacking.

“It is no problem for us and the Russians,” Budanov said of fighting in the frigid weather.

Any such attack, however, would first follow a series of psychological operations currently underway designed to destabilize Ukraine and undermine its ability to fight, said Budanov, speaking through an interpreter.

“They want to foment unrest, through protests and meetings, that show the people are against the government,” he said.

Those efforts include ongoing anti-COVID-19 vaccination protests that Budanov said have been organized by Russia, which is also trying to stoke unrest related to the economy and energy supplies.

In addition, Budanov said Russia is trying to whip up anti-government sentiment over an incident dubbed “Wagnergate” — a controversy involving about 30 members of the Russian private military group responsible for attacks inside Ukraine. The Wagner group members, who made their way to Belarus, were supposed to be brought back to Ukraine to be detained, but instead wound up being sent to Russia with the help of the Belarus KGB, Budanov said.

Russian psychological operations are being used to show “our authorities betrayed the people,” said Budanov.

The ongoing border conflict between Poland and Belarus, which is trying to send refugees into Europe through Poland’s border, is part of that effort, he said.

“They want to make the situation inside the country more and more dangerous and hard and make a situation where we have to change the government,” said Budanov. “If they can’t do that, than military troops will do their job.”

Budanov said U.S. and Ukraine intelligence assessments about the timing of a Russian attack are very similar.

“Our evaluations are almost the same as our American colleagues,” he said.

The Russian embassy did not respond to a request for comment Saturday. The Pentagon on Saturday declined to comment on Budanov’s assessments about the timing and nature of any potential Russian attack, instead pointing to comments made Wednesday and Thursday by Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin.

The U.S. continues to see “troubling behavior from Russia,” Austin told reporters Wednesday.

“We are not sure exactly what Mr. Putin is up to,” he said. “But these movements certainly have our attention. And I would urge Russia to be more transparent about what they are up to take steps to live up to the Minsk agreements.

“Our support for Ukraine sovereignty territorial integrity remains unwavering.”

After meeting with Reznikov on Thursday, Austin said the U.S. will “continue to advance our shared priority to counter Russian aggression and to deepen our cooperation in such areas as Black Sea security, cyber defense and intelligence sharing.

Budanov said that ideally, the U.S. would help deter any Russian incursion, through additional military aid and increased diplomatic and economic pressure, including more sanctions against Russia and the seizure and blocking of Russian banking accounts.

Also, in addition to U.S. aid already promised and delivered, including Mark VI patrol boats, Javelin anti-armor systems and AN/TPQ-53 light counter-fire radar systems, Ukraine seeks additional air, missile and drone defense systems and electronic jamming devices, Budonov said. Patriot missile batteries and counter rocket, artillery and mortar systems are on Ukraine’s wish list.

The AN/TPQ-53 systems were used to great effect, Ukraine military officials have previously told Military Times. Budanov said the Javenlin systems have also been used against Russian forces. Those, along with Turkish-manufactured drones, used against Russian-aligned separatist artillery troops, have a significant psychological deterrent value, said Budanov, making Russians think twice about attacking.

Still, he said, Ukraine needs more help from America.

“I think it’s not enough for us right now,” he said of current and promised U.S. aid to Ukraine. “We need more. No countries except Ukraine have open war with Russia. And we have for seven years. That’s why we’re sure the U.S should give us everything we didn’t get before. And right now. It’s the right time for this. Because after it could be very late.”

Source: Military Times

 

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Leisure Larry
Leisure Larry
5 days ago

Kiev is completely controlled by Tel Aviv via the $$$U.S. State Department$$$ which spent $5,000,000,000 to overthrow Ukraine in 2014.
https://redice.tv/news/israel-s-secret-plan-for-a-second-israel-in-ukraine

L Garou
L Garou
5 days ago
Reply to  Leisure Larry

Victoria (Kagan) Nuland and her $5 billion (cia) slush fund.

Raptar Driver
Raptar Driver
5 days ago

They don’t even need that much because the civilians will join them all the way to Kiev.

Abraham Lincoln
Abraham Lincoln
1 day ago
Reply to  Raptar Driver

Yes just some special forces and air power to help the locals over throw the Zio Nazis. Take all of Ukriane and geto the Polish border in 24 hours

Ron
Ron
5 days ago

I would think if Russia wanted to take Ukraine, an all out invasion would be the least effective method. Guaranteed failure.

Helga Weber
Helga Weber
5 days ago
Reply to  Ron

Since the Ukraine is a failed state, it would be an expensive experiment.

Leisure Larry
Leisure Larry
3 days ago
Reply to  Helga Weber

Ukraine is a failed state because it’s been murdered and looted by the Global Jewish Nation, via the (((U.S. State Department))).

More dead Slavs means more Khazar lebensraum in their actual ancestral homeland.

Helga Weber
Helga Weber
5 days ago

I hope that american soldiers are ready and willing to die for the Ukraine and also willing to die for Taiwan because the constant propaganda is geared to that. The danger though is, that in the next war bombs could be dropped closer to home. Like
China said, we know America can destroy us many many times, but we will make sure, we can destroy it once.

Mr Reynard
Mr Reynard
5 days ago
Reply to  Helga Weber

Helga.. See the Terror to Russian & Chinese army ?
comment image

guest
Member
guest (@guest)
4 days ago
Reply to  Mr Reynard

Is this really a picture, not just a cartoon ?

30W
30W
4 days ago
Reply to  Helga Weber

vindictive bastards, eh?

Mr Reynard
Mr Reynard
5 days ago

Budanov. Intelligence officer??
See the gigantic Intelligence flowing from his eyes ….

comment image

Cap960
Cap960
5 days ago

Anything coming from colony Ukraine to be ignored at once. The Yanks speak for them…

steve kastl
Active Member
steve kastl (@steve-kastl)
5 days ago

Russia has enough land. Russia doesn’t need or want to invade a failed state. Russia doesn’t want another invasion either. Russia should never trust anything our USA government says. The USA government is morally insane and run by duel citizen Israelis, so beware, everything is a lie.

Eddy
Eddy
5 days ago

L.O.L. How embarrassing can these A’holes become ? Check out the pic of this wanna be, says it all IMHO. However, in all the paranoia emanating from these A’holes regarding Russia, not ONE has been able to give a VALID,GENUINE reason as to WHY would Russia invade this failed state ?
Russia has made it abundantly clear, it has no desire to impose upon it’self the economic burden of bailing out this failed state,(failed due to it’s own corruption and stupidity) so WHY would they then INVADE such a state ?
I suspect the Ukrainians secretly hope and pray for the Russians to invade and save them from themselves and their own corruption. Wishfull thinking I’d say.

Ragheadthefiendlyterrorist
4 days ago
Reply to  Eddy

Reasons? They don’t want no steekeen’ reasons! Russians are eeeeeeevil, Hollywood said so!

Mark
5 days ago

Russian troops ‘massed at the border with Ukraine’ are actually in Russia – does Moscow need to get a permission slip from Kuh-yiv now to move military units around in its own country? Shoyu;d it consult with Washington, perhaps, and provide it with detailed plans of its military movements?

No ‘Ukrainian intelligence’ personnel have yet explained why Russia is choosing to launch an invasion during the season when it has the shortest period of daylight and tbe least cover for its armored, artillery and infantry units, at a time when Ukraine is just about to lose all its usefulness as leverage against Russia, with the loss of its capacity to interfere with the flow of gas from Russia to Europe. At a time, moreover, when Russia will still transit a token 40 bCM of gas across Ukraine up until 2024, because that’s what is in the contract and it would pay transit fees regardless.

And when Russia smashes its way to the suburbs of Kiev – what then? The west will not launch an Article 5 counterattack; Ukraine is not a member of NATO. It will dawn on Russia that it has taken responsibility for a large, poor country whose citizens must be provided with heating, food and shelter and basic civil services, whose economy is in desperate straits. Public infrastructure must be maintained, and commercial logistics chains. The west will immediately cease all financial aid, because Putin would use it to buy more tanks. So Russia would get the entire bill for keeping Ukraine from going under. Ukraine is a huge millstone around the neck of any successful invader at any time of the year, and nobody in their right mind would do it.

Leisure Larry
Leisure Larry
1 day ago
Reply to  Mark

Ukraine is janky because it continues to be looted by Jewish supercriminals who are empowered by the (((U.S. State Department))) that created the Maidan to overthrow the elected government.

Ragheadthefiendlyterrorist
4 days ago

What asinine rubbish. It wouldn’t take 9400 troops, let alone 94000. The Ukranazi coup regime’s conscripts would surrender faster than the puppet child sex slaver Quisling warlord regime army in Afghanistan did to the Taliban.

Bob Dobbs
Bob Dobbs
4 days ago

Russia will be able to take Donbas with little resistance once Nordstream2 is online and Russia shuts down the Ukraine route. No revenue and no gas means a very cold and weak Ukraine. Russia can probably just buy Donbas at that point.

Leisure Larry
Leisure Larry
3 days ago
Reply to  Bob Dobbs

Donbas is already effectively Russian.
All they have to do is call ahead for dinner reservations.

Wayne Gabler
Wayne Gabler
4 days ago

Russia would not attack the Ukraine without first levelling the top 10 layers of the World Bank in Brussels. Then the Russian flag will be flying as far west as Iceland.
Poland would join Russia just to get her coal-mines operating again, much to the delight of Germany.

Line Doggie 5
3 days ago
Reply to  Wayne Gabler

I remember the comment, if someone destroyed the top 10 floors of the UN building nobody would even notice…

Raptar Driver
Raptar Driver
3 days ago

This is all on the Putin administration.a
They refused to end the cycle of violence which they were perfectly capable of doing.
Russians are dying violently everyday because of this.

Republic of Pineland
Republic of Pineland
3 days ago

“Ukraine seeks additional air, missile and drone defense systems and electronic jamming devices,”

The Russians took down that entire drone swarm that was inbound against Tartus, either assuming control outright, or downing the entire swarm..

The most likely source for that swarm as far manufacturing or parts would either be US or Turkish, so relying on either of those sources as defense against Russian electronic warfare seems like a fairly bad bet.

It seems that the Russians only want one thing as far as I can tell, which is the same thing you find going back into pre-history, a buffer zone, that ensures it cannot be attacked from a jumpoff point immediately adjacent to its own territory, without some distant early warning.

I think that if Biden wants to salvage something at all out of his presidency, invite Putin and Zelenskyy to a summit that ensures mutual safety to all, and prevents more European wars. (and retire Nuland to an ice flow)

Anti-Empire