UAE Recognition Saves Netanyahu From Having to Admit West Bank Annexation Wasn’t Going Ahead Anyway

UAE bailing out Bibi ⁠— delivering something for nothing — though their calculus probably has more to do with the US

On initial observation, the deal struck between Abu Dabi’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin-Zayed, Benjamin Netanyahu, and Jared Kushner is very much less than meets the eye.  Some usually thoughtful Middle East analysts like Robin Wright have proclaimed this a “game-changer” and a beginning of a paradigm shift in the entire regional dynamic.

I may be missing something, but I don’t see it.  What I do see is two modest winners and one big loser.

Netanyahu has managed to get himself out of a mess.  Israel was already decided not to go ahead with the annexation of property on the West Bank.  Trump was unreliable, Biden was opposed, and there was no popular support inside Israel.  Gantz tied any annexation to full-blown US Administration support, which was not forthcoming ( for political, not moral reasons).  Rightwing settlers opposed the deal and were protesting in front of the Prime Minister’s official residence all week.  They rejected the idea of implying that some parts of the West Bank might be a future Palestinian state.  They want it all and see Netanyahu as hedging.  After all, he faces jail and has already lost the support of a vast majority of Israelis of all stripes who are sickened by his corruption.  Netanyahu did not even have a majority within his own Likud Party in support of any annexation.  So he owes MBZ a big kiss for bailing out his chestnuts by allowing him to claim he got something in return for nothing.

Trump of course benefits from what he will claim as a major success for his Middle East deal-making.  Of course anyone familiar with the region (which excludes most Americans) knows that the UAE and Israel have had a not-so-secret collaboration for decades.  Israeli cyber security firms have been installing spyware for the Gulf Arabs at significant profit for some time.  Israel and the Gulf Arabs share hatred for Iran.

The big losers are, not surprisingly, the Palestinians, who get nothing out of the deal and will now come under even nastier pressure from the Gulf Arabs to take the breadcrumbs the Israelis will be offering.

Trump and Kushner from the start of the Administration have been pushing the idea of “outside-in.”  That is, make a deal with the Arabs and then force the Palestinians to take what is offered.  That is now closer to reality–unless some young Palestinian leadership emerges that recognizes that the Gulf Arabs are not their friends, but their overlords, who fear a democratic Palestinian state will make all of their autocratic kingdoms look bad, and deprive them of the Palestinian talent that manages much of their govadventernance and economy.

Source: Sic Semper Tyrannis

  1. cechas vodobenikov says

    the ME and Israeli politics seem to me misreported; I doubt that diplomatic relations signify anything more than exchange of ambassadors

  2. Ilya says

    Blah blah – you assume the shark feints, and that the Talmud doesn’t demand control of the Levant by Jews.

    This plan is shelved until an opportune moment. Trump’s reelection is one.

    If only he offered this to the Israelis as a trade for letting go of their grip of Western civilisation, but somehow, I can’t imagine they can ever let go of Christian nations, before they destroy them.

    1. disqus_3BrONUAJno says

      The Talmud controls most Jews about as much as the Ten Commandments control most American “Christians.”

      1. Ilya says

        Yes yes, like saying ‘a Brit doesn’t subject themselves to British law’, or ‘a Russian to Russian law’, or ‘a Muslim to Sharia’..

        How, could you ever sell the idea, that a believer would not subject themselves to the law they subject themselves to?

        I follow Dhamma (Buddhism) – do you imply I give no shit for Buddhist law? But Dhamma means ‘Buddhist Law’!

        Faithful Jews submit to the Talmud. Fair enough, but it teaches fear and hate of the other, which is where criticism is just and deserved.

        1. cechas vodobenikov says

          there r many versions of sharia

        2. disqus_3BrONUAJno says

          Buddhism is not a religion. At most, you could follow it.
          The Talmud lost much of its authority when it became a written tradition in lieu of a spoken one.

          1. cechas vodobenikov says

            a religion w no God—passivity by doctrine, however Buddhists are notorious violent people, now obliterating the CIA funded Rohingiya Salvation Army and Karen peoples in Myanmar….the 3 Mongol Tibetan Buddhist regions in Russia, Buriyat, Tuva, kalmikiya are plagued with the most murders and violent crime per capita of all regions in Russia

          2. Ilya says

            Buddhism is most only a religion – a path to tame the individual.

            The faith element is necessary before the attainment of nibbana, but it is limited, as proof of nibbana is impossible before its attainment.

            (I define faith as world view, religion as self improvement/taming, ideogy as other improvement, and ritual as blind repitition)

            1. disqus_3BrONUAJno says

              You must not be a Buddhist.

            2. Ilya says

              No, I follow Dhamma.

            3. disqus_3BrONUAJno says

              That would put you in a similar situation to my following of the teachings of Jesus Christ as a Christian atheist.

            4. Ilya says

              I don’t follow, sorry 🙂

            5. disqus_3BrONUAJno says

              Most Americans are more controlled than tamed.

            6. David Bedford says

              This next election will be a very interesting and revealing election no matter which way it goes.

  3. disqus_3BrONUAJno says

    Israel knows it will never annex any of the UAE so it has to behave if it wants them not to pile onto them when the time comes to put them down.

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