These Are the Same Pollsters Who Are Telling You Lockdowns Are Popular
Once again 'models' and modelers cover themselves in shame
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Heading into the election the aggregate poll average had Biden up by 8-9 points. This was based on hundreds of polls and had been steady for six months. Yet instead of the landslide for Biden that the right-thinking echo chamber was expecting, we’re looking at a photo-finish.
And this after they had *already* got it similarly wrong in 2016, and had been claiming all along they had learned from their error and had updated their methods so that nothing like that could happen again.
They didn’t just get it wrong. They got it wrong by a massive margin.
They didn’t just get it wrong by a massive margin. They got it wrong by a massive margin twice in a row.
They didn’t just get it wrong by a massive margin twice in a row. They got it wrong by a massive margin twice in a row, *after* they had spent years assuring us they had foolproofed their models.
These are the same people who are producing surveys purporting to show that COVID cult lockdowns are popular.
In reality, all that these polls show is that the pollsters reached out to a sample among which lockdowns are popular, or put more accurately —— to a sample which has memorized the “socially desirable” answer and is repeating it to pollsters.
In reality, even if there was a genuine popular outcry for lockdowns that still wouldn’t mean anything because:
A.) Anyone who wants to barricade themselves in their home is already perfectly free to do so, but doing so does not grant them the right to demand everyone follows suit, whether they are in the majority or not.
B.) Demonstrated preferences trump expressed preferences. Humans are manipulative social animals with dual brains who say one thing and do another. People are perfectly capable of telling pollsters they support a lockdown because they are virtue signaling or are being careful to avoid social stigma, or because they want their neighbors locked down, but at the same time have every intention of skirting it themselves. In reality, almost nobody wants a mandatory lockdown for themselves, which is clearly demonstrated by the fact that almost nobody follows it to a T. The only difference is that one group of lockdown-resisters are hypocrites who will nonetheless claim they approve of it, while the others are principled resisters who want freedom *for everyone* and aren’t afraid to say so.

To get a battleground state or two wrong, okay. But the average national poll had @joebiden leading @realDonaldTrump by 8-9 points (per @fivethirtyeight), and that figure was basically stable for SIX MONTHS. (Little smaller in September – but bigger in October, no joke.)
— Alex Berenson (@AlexBerenson) November 4, 2020
These averages come from HUNDREDS of polls. And they were all wrong. WAY wrong. The only ones that were right were those the media tried to ignore as conservative – Trafalgar and Rasmussen (and the IBD tracker was close at the end).
At some point being wrong has to matter, no?
— Alex Berenson (@AlexBerenson) November 4, 2020
Pollsters were trying to say Biden was ~+2 in Ohio. Trump is winning by almost 8 points.
Another #Fail for pollsters
— Kyle Lamb (@kylamb8) November 4, 2020
A week ago, the Washington Post, citing its new poll, reported that Biden had a 17-point lead over Trump in Wisconsin, 57 percent to 40 percent. What an utter, complete, total embarrassment. Current actual difference: 7/10 of one percent. https://t.co/2tRwanTn5n pic.twitter.com/8D5ZT37yF9
— Byron York (@ByronYork) November 4, 2020
The polls were horribly wrong. Even after mail-in these polls will not come true.
YouGov +10 Biden
Ipsos +7 Biden
Quinnipiac +11 Biden
NBC/WSJ +10 Biden
Harvard/Harris +8 Biden
Fox News +8 Bidenhttps://t.co/K7UmmfGQLI— Brian Lilley (@brianlilley) November 4, 2020
And now a look at how much Trump overperfomed the 538 averages in swing states:
OH: +7
WI: +8
IA: +7
TX: +5
FL: +6
NC: +3
GA: +3
MN: +2
AZ: -1A really rough night for polls and a disastrous night for certain pollsters such as Quinnipiac who showed Biden doing so much better.
— Josh Jordan (@NumbersMuncher) November 4, 2020
I like to put things on the record. Final Florida (MSM-loved) polls:
Quinnipiac: Biden +5
Reuters/Ipsos: Biden +4
CNBC/Change: Biden +3#Election2020— Kimberley Strassel (@KimStrassel) November 4, 2020