‘The US Considers Itself to Be in a Win-Win Situation’
It's hard to see how *more* war between East Slavs doesn't benefit the Empire
From the copious output by US think tankers in the recent weeks, the US considers itself to be in a “win-win” situation. The Brookings Institute was plainly dismissive about Russia’s demands which it considered as too outlandish to merit consideration. The think tankers in Washington are pouring over Russia’s options in binary terms — an outright invasion of Ukraine or a limited incursion plus deployment of Russian troops to Donbas.
The latter option is given weightage in a report complied by the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War in Washington by a team of experts led by Frederick Kagan (husband of Undersecretary of State Victoria Nuland).
It anticipates: “Putin will very likely deploy Russian troops into Belarus this winter… Such a move could dramatically increase the challenge NATO faces defending the Baltic States from future Russian attack because it would put Russian mechanised units on both sides of the narrow Suwalki Corridor through which NATO supplies and reinforcements to the Baltic States must run… And it would put additional Russian troops on the Polish border, increasing the threat to NATO’s eastern flank.”
Having publicised on December 17 its demand for written legally bound security guarantee, Moscow is now obliged to stick by it. The US assumption is that Putin is damned either way.
Indeed, if Putin backs down, it will be a massive loss of his public image as the “strongman”, which may even have implications for the 2024 presidential election in Russia.
Worse still, the West would be embolden to retain the option to continue with the present “salami tactic” — integrate Ukraine into the NATO incrementally while pushing military deployments right up to Russia’s borders. Bringing Russia down a few notches in its global standing suits American interests worldwide when it is feeling the heat of Moscow’s contestation in global politics.
Curiously, the US does not take the “China factor” seriously. While there is no let-up in the US’ confrontational policy toward China and a Cold-War style confrontation is crystallising, Washington is confident that Beijing will not exacerbate the crisis by risking a military flashpoint through 2022 with the 20th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party due in the second half of the year.
The consensus among US experts is that Chinese stagecraft almost exclusively focused in the coming months on consolidating President Xi Jinping’s legitimacy and power base within the party and country to steer through the CCP Congress his re-election for a third term, a momentous event in Chinese political history since Mao Zedong.
Herein lies the great danger: With the challenging mid-term elections due in November in the US, which Biden is almost certain to lose, he may visualise a political rebound by playing the Russia card, which enjoys bipartisan support. In strategic terms, the US’ transatlantic leadership also stands to gain.
The Kremlin leadership faces an existential dilemma. On the one hand, having waded into the midstream, turning back is difficult. On the other hand, the status quo may be seized by NATO to complete the unfinished business of training Russia to become a dancing bear.
However, what is being blithely overlooked is that in Kiev, there is also a savage power struggle brewing, as the recent attempt by President Volodymyr Zelensky to lock up his predecessor Petro Poroshenko in jail on sedition charges suggests.
The Pandora Papers have revealed that Zelensky founded a network of offshore companies and his former business partner and employer, Ukrainian banking and media tycoon named Ihor Kolomoisky (who is also sanctioned by Washington) allegedly laundered $5.5 billion through a tangle of shell companies.
In September, in Kiev, someone tried to murder Serhiy Shefir, a friend and business partner who is believed to have created a network of offshore entities for Zelensky and others.
Meanwhile, the stink involving then vice president Biden’s son Hunter’s direct link to a Ukrainian corrupt company and its owner still pollutes the air. Forbes magazine recently wrote, “It’s consensus now that Hunter’s foreign relations have hurt American foreign policy in Ukraine.”
The internal and external political changes in Ukraine need to be taken seriously. They may turn out to be the “missing link” in the US narrative. Even if Biden Administration pretends not to notice, Moscow must be watching closely.
Source: Indian Punchline