The Second Stage of the Military Operation in Ukraine: Everything Is Going According to Plan /s
But no one knows the plan...
Editor’s note: Let’s forget for a moment about Western fantasists and weirdos. What are Russian military writers saying about the war themselves?
For the record, “everything is proceeding according to plan” is a meme in Russia. Outside of government circles it is only ever uttered ironically to ridicule the government.
There’s even an ironic 1980s punk song “Everything Is Going According to Plan”.
Source: Военное обозрение (Military Review)
Machine translated from Russian.
Three weeks have passed since Russia announced the second stage of the special operation, the main goal of which was the complete liberation of Donbass and control over southern Ukraine. All this time, heavy fighting continues in the Donbass with slow advances of the People’s Militia of the LDNR and the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, but a radical change has not yet occurred. Moreover, the Armed Forces of Ukraine launched a counteroffensive in the Kharkiv direction. Is everything really going according to plan, as Dmitry Peskov says, or is Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, who recently announced that the special operation was dragging on, right?
The heaviest and most fierce battles are currently going on in the Donbass near Popasnaya, which recently almost completely came under the control of the national militia of the LNR and the Russian armed forces, and on the southern outskirts of Rubizhne, north of Severodonetsk. Rubizhnoye and Popasnaya have long been cities where stubborn and bloody battles took place with numerous casualties on both sides. The Ukrainian units were well prepared for the defense, having equipped firing positions in the basements and “fire bags”. Eyewitnesses of the events spoke about the latter in sufficient detail. For example, one of the participants in the battles for Rubizhne described the battles for a garage cooperative located in the eastern part of the city in this way:
They prepared their positions well. To the south of the positions is a lowland sheltering from artillery. Messages are displayed to it. At the ends of the streets leading north through the village there are concrete pillboxes. In the settlement quarters themselves, “fire bags” were organized in advance – sectors for cross-fire were cleared, machine-gun points were equipped in the basements, and sniper positions were prepared. And in the “bags” themselves, paths are carefully laid – fences and sheds are pierced. Fighters trying to conduct reconnaissance in battle, so as not to walk along the streets being shot through, go in yards. They don’t know who punched the passages – maybe ours. And along these passages they come under the crossfire of machine guns and snipers. Groups perished without even realizing that they were being fired upon.
The situation was greatly complicated by the lack of UAVs, digital closed communications and lack of medicines among the units that stormed Rubizhne. Modern combat should still not be conducted according to the principle “go, storm the positions in the forehead”, but in a completely different way. UAVs find enemy positions, and then artillery, which is corrected by drones, destroys these positions to zero, and only then the infantry gets down to business. Unfortunately, many units of the national militia of the LPR, with the exception of the “Ghost”, which for many years really prepared for war, were not provided with either drones, or communications, or even normal uniforms.
At the moment, Rubizhne and Popasnaya have almost completely come under the control of the People’s Militia of the LPR and the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, and only Lisichansk and Severodonetsk remain under the control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. It is not yet clear in what time frame they will be able to be taken: if the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which are suffering heavy losses, decide to retreat from these settlements in the direction of Seversk, then in the near future the territory of the LPR will be completely liberated. If the Ukrainian military will defend themselves on the same principle as in Rubizhne and Popasna, then the battles for these settlements may last for several more weeks. In the DPR, the situation is much more complicated, because the enemy is still standing on the outskirts of Donetsk and is carrying out fierce shelling of the city. The attacks of the NM DPR on Avdeevka have not yet yielded any results.
The situation is even more complicated in the Kharkov direction, where the enemy attempted a counteroffensive in all directions at once. Heavy fighting is taking place near Izyum, where the Armed Forces of Ukraine are trying to impede the advance of Russian troops, and near Kharkov, the Ukrainian military managed to recapture several settlements. We are talking about the villages of Russkaya Lozovaya, Kutuzovka, Stary Saltov, Russian Tishki, Tsirkuny.
In the villages of Russkaya Lozovaya and Kutuzovka, there were units of the People’s Militia of the LDNR, formed mainly from mobilized residents of the republics. They had practically no heavy weapons, so they had no chance against a tank attack, which was accompanied by heavy artillery fire. From a number of settlements had to retreat.
In the southern direction, the operational situation as a whole remains unchanged, with the exception of the situation around Zmeiny Island. Apparently, Ukraine is making an attempt to lift the naval blockade and push the Black Sea Fleet towards the Crimea. In fact, now there is a war for control over the Black Sea, and Zmeiny Island plays an important role here. It is known that Ukrainian aviation attacked the island several times, and with the help of the Bayraktar UAV, the Armed Forces of Ukraine managed to hit a Russian boat. Subsequently, the Black Sea Fleet evacuated military personnel from the island, and Ukraine tried to land troops there. The attempt ended unsuccessfully: two Ukrainian Su-24 bombers and a Mi-24 helicopter were shot down.
In addition, in recent days, the Russian Aerospace Forces have been delivering powerful missile strikes on Odessa and Nikolaev, but whether this is preparation for an offensive in this direction is still unclear.
The forecast of the former field commander of the DPR militia Igor Strelkov that the Armed Forces of Ukraine will only be “squeezed out” from Donbass over many weeks, or even several months and only with heavy losses is fully justified so far. And taking into account the fact that the enemy is constantly introducing reserves into battle, which are created due to waves of mobilization, it is still unclear how the Russian Ministry of Defense will stop the introduction of new units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine into battle. Partial mobilization at the moment looks inevitable, but this is not a way out of the situation. The mobilized will still need to be trained and trained for a couple of months, so at first it will be possible to use them only to protect secondary sectors on the border with Russia.
The key problems of the current Russian army are the lack of reconnaissance equipment, i.e. UAVs, problems of interaction with artillery (fire adjustment is poorly adjusted), and a generally low level of command and control. At the moment, it is required to saturate the army of UAVs of all levels, without this it will be difficult to achieve a decisive turning point in the war. The fact that Rostec announced its intention to create miniature drones for the Russian military is, of course, wonderful, but the speed of decision-making is simply incredible.
In general, at the moment the army needs not so much the mobilization of human resources (although this too), but the mobilization of industry, the mass production of UAVs and communications equipment. [Or just quickly order these items from China, or would vested interests be against that?]
Editor’s note: You may also want to scroll down to the comment section of the original Russian article, and see which comments are getting upvoted (realist ones) and which downvoted (the butthurt ones).
So that’s really something. While the Russians are realistic about how the war is proceeding (they have to be, they can not afford illusions), Western weirdos without skin in the game are having butthurt hysteria meltdowns to defend a cringe fantasy where “Ukraine was defeated in the first 3 days”.