The ‘Conservative’ IHME Covid-19 Model Trump Admin Relied on For Its Own (Higher) Estimate Is Already Falling Apart

Its "expert" prediction of NY hospitalizations off by a mind-boggling 400%

The Trump admin (Deborah Birx) came up with their “projection” (guess) of 100,000 to 240,000 US Covid-19 deaths by taking the British Imperial College projection of up to 2.2 million US deaths and the American IHME projection of between 38,000 and 162,000 deaths.

There literally was no other methodology behind the White House task force estimate as a Washington Post report made clear, they basically just took the two projection and picked a number in between the two.

However, it’s there is very good reason to believe even the conservative IHME prediction was still far too high as it’s already off by 400% compared to reality:

As coronavirus models go, the one put forth by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, or IHME, has been one of the more optimistic ones.

According to The Washington Post, the model predicted 38,000 to 162,000 deaths in the United States — lower than most models and lower than the White House estimate of 100,000 to 240,000 deaths.

Even though it may be conservative, however, the IHME model might not have been conservative enough.

The model found that on April 1, New York would need 50,962 beds.

Former New York Times reporter Alex Berenson noted that projection was far off — it was 400 percent too high, in fact.

The actual number as of April 1 was 12,226, according to WROC-TV. A total of 3,022 intensive care beds were needed, far short of the 10,050 predicted by the model.

While there could be an undercount given the nature of the disease and of testing, it’s unlikely that number has been undercounted by over 37,000 hospital beds total and over 7,000 ICU beds.

  1. chris chuba says

    Come on guys, you know Trump is doing the old under-promise / over deliver technique. If the real number is < 100,000 it will keep the CNN harpies off his back, if it's < 50,000 it will be a miracle brought to you by St. Trump Ignatius.

  2. ke4ram says

    Few ever mention that the UK downgraded the fake virus. Guess it’s too inconvenient. More moola to be made spreading panic, fear and chaos.

    The 4 nations public health HCIDgroup made an interim recommendation in January 2020 to classify COVID-19 as an HCID. This was based on consideration of the UK HCID criteria about the virus and the disease with information availa bleduring the early stages of the outbreak. Now that more is known about COVID-19, the public health bodies in the UK have reviewed the most upto date information about COVID-19 against the UK HCID criteria. Theyhave determined that several features have now changed; in particular,more information is available about mortality rates (low overall), and
    there is now greater clinical awareness and a specific and sensitive laboratory test, the availability of which continues to increase.

    The Advisory Committee on Dangerous Pathogens (ACDP) is also of the opinion that COVID-19 should no longer be classified as an HCID.”

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