Strelkov: Russian Mil Can Not Replace Running Losses, Donbass Battle to Drag Into Summer

Editor’s note: Here is the SITREP on the 82nd day of “The War That Was Won in the First 3 Days”. The most important part is the conclusion at the very bottom.

Source: Strelkov’s Telegram

Kharkov:

The enemy continues to try to completely push Russian forces and LPR reservists toward the Russian border. In some places (between Kazachia Lopan and Volchanski) the enemy has reached the border and the front now stretches along it. Over the past day, the situation has not changed fundamentally.

Izyum:

After a long and bloody meat grinder, Russian forces took full control of the ruins of Dolgenkoe village. Fighting around the settlement continues. The enemy is actively counter-attacking.

Fierce battles also continued around ​​the city of Liman, during which, over a few days, our troops advanced and liberated several settlements to its west and northwest. However, the city itself and its environs are stubbornly defended by the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Severodonetsk:

As I expected, the enemy does not intend to surrender these cities without a long battle, even under the threat of encirclement. Which, however, is still far away. Stubborn fighting continues in the area north of Popasnaya with heavy losses on both sides.

Gorlovka:

There are no significant changes on the front in the Gorlovka area.

Donetsk:

In the Donetsk area, our troops – personnel units of the DPR Armed Forces – yesterday attacked the outskirts of Staromihailovka (a suburb of Donetsk between Donetsk itself and Krasnogorovka) and are now conducting heavy bloody battles in this village. The situation in Maryinka is still not clear to me.

There are no changes in the front in the Ugledar region – the city itself has been turned into another “fortress” and is ready for a long defense.

I have very little information on the Zaporozhye, Krivoy Rog, and Nikolayev fronts. In general, as far as I can judge, the position of the parties has not changed significantly, although in the past few days the Armed Forces of Ukraine managed to slightly push our troops in places.

General conclusion:

I must state with regret that the operation to defeat the enemy’s Donetsk grouping, widely publicized in late April-early May, FAIL. For more than two weeks of fierce fighting (which cost both sides very heavy losses), only tactical successes were achieved. Not a single large settlement was liberated (the exception is the city of Rubezhnoye, but the battles for it began before the offensive began). Probably, certain tactical successes will still be achieved before the moment when the enemy goes over to the counteroffensive. But it is already clear that Donbass will not be fully liberated before the beginning of summer. Probably, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will not even be thrown back from the suburbs of Donetsk.

And I cannot say that this result is unexpected for me. Vice versa. The art of war requires its adherents to strike where the enemy least expects them. In our case, the intention of the Russian command was so obvious, the terrain was so beneficial for the defending side, and the balance of forces was almost equal on both sides, that only … our General Staff could count on decisive success.

At the moment, our troops are drawn into exhausting offensive battles, as we continue to “play by the rules proposed by the enemy.” And the point is — not only and not so much in individual examples of “outstanding bungling” (such as forcing the North Donets river), but — in the fact that losses incurred in daily offensive battles (not ending in the defeat of the enemy) cannot be quickly compensated by trained replacements.

Meanwhile, the enemy continues to frantically prepare its strategic reserves. And where he will deliver his blows, when our troops finally “run out of steam” no one knows (although this can also be predicted, but I will not do this publicly… until I do).