Shoigu: 6500 Ukrainian POWs Have Been Taken so Far
In latest briefing, Shoigu said that in the last five days 126 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered bringing the total to 6489 captured Ukrainian servicemen.
Around 2500 surrendered in the Azovstal capitulation, and around 1000 in an earlier mass surrender of Ukrainian Marines also in Mariupol.
So then around 3000 were captured in various other smaller surrenders in Mariupol and outside of it in the 103 days of war.
If the last five days when 126 were captured are typical (a big assumption to make) it would imply that in a typical day (one without mass surrenders of surrounded troops) 25 Ukrainians are captured. (750 per month.)
So when Zelensky speaks of 60 to 100 dead and 500 wounded on the Ukrainian side in a day, up to 25 POWs could be added to that tally.
On the other hand, if Shoigu’s five days cover the Ukrainian rout at Lyman about a week ago that could skew the numbers as such mini disasters are not the norm.
Shoigu’s figure of 6500 Ukrainian POWs is considerably smaller than the 10,000 or even 15,000 POWs estimated by some. I cautioned that we only had strong evidence of 4200 (2500 from Azovstal plus the 1700 documented before its fall) and felt that 10,000 was unsubstantiated and probably wishful thinking.
Especially since RUMOD itself put the starting strength of the enemy encircled in Mariupol at just 8100. (Pundits continued to claim RUMOD had spoken too soon and that the real number was at least 15,000 — a number that would have required the presence of 5 to 6 full brigades, not the 3 to 4 incomplete ones that we actually saw.)