Russia — First Mobilization Almost Over, Serving Conscripts Still Not Deployable

The staggering number of 300,000 called up in just 40 days goes to show just how starved for manpower the Russian Ground Army had been

Putin has said that mobilization call-ups are about to end, and several Russian regions have already announced their completion. Sobyanin’s Moscow among them:

I am not surprised by this. As I wrote 300,000 is at the upper bound of how many people the Russian military can integrate in short order.

If the Russians have already called up 260,000 in just one month (which is massive), then it is normal that call-ups will now soon cease since calling up men is the easiest part of mobilization. The real work starts later. (As we have all also seen.)

In fact, when mobilization was proclaimed I felt that 300K was an unexpectedly high number. I would have bet on 200K or 250K, since in the Russian force structure only about 20% (circa 200K) slots in existing units are to be filled by war-time mobilization. AE, September 23:

“300,000 represents the upper bound of how many men the Russian military can assimilate in short order.

Russia no longer has skeleton, officer-only divisions that could quickly absorb gargantuan numbers of conscripts.

Pre-war Russia’s military only had about 200,000 slots that were kept empty and that were to be filled in case of a major war through mobilization.”

Interestingly Putin himself claims that initially, the military asked for a number under 300K:

“Firstly, the Defense Ministry originally had a lower estimate, not 300,000 thousand.”

(However, Putin doesn’t reveal when was the military making this request. Was it March?)

Indeed, to be able to carry out the mobilization of 300,000 at all Russia had to postpone the fall draft. (That’s how big this number is.) The conscription of 125,000 18 and 19-year olds for their national service was postponed from October 1 as is traditional to November 1. (This is more proof that mobilization wasn’t planned ahead but was a direct reaction to the debacle in Kharkov that served as the wake-up call that Ukraine had captured the initiative.)


Actually, it is difficult to see why the draft is going ahead at all. Logically conscripts should have been committed to war from day 1, before the mobilization was even decreed. But since Putin has now decreed mobilization, but maintains that serving conscripts remain non-deployable they have become dead weight.

The capacity of any military to equip, train and integrate men is limited. Especially in short order and on a budget. Every conscript is taking up training ground capacity, instructor time, equipment, weapon, and a slot in an existing unit that could have gone to a mobik, but only one of the two is actually deployable.

If Russia is in a war (is she??), it is pointless for her to be inducting into the military masses of personnel who are a priori banned from the war. Especially when those who are deployed are short of everything. (Imagine being in a war but insisting your military must equip 250,000 Quakers.)

If Putin insists that conscripts are non-deployable (an absurd stance) then they don’t have a role in the military. At least for the heavily pressured land combat arms, if they can not be part of the rotation then there is very little rationale to spend resources on them. Logic dictates that draft ought to be suspended indefinitely and the freed-up resources spent on mobiki.


So the takeaway is:

1. That mobilization call-ups will shortly end doesn’t mean much. They are ending because there is a physical limit to how many men the Russian military can integrate in short order. It just speaks to how many call-ups they had sent out in just over a month (and to how starved for manpower they had been before that such pace was necessary).

But there is nothing in Putin’s language that explicitly rules out a second mobilization at a later date. (Albeit knowing Putin he will drag it out and won’t make that call until much after it would have actually made sense.)

“[T]here are no additional plans. No proposals from the Defense Ministry have been received in this regard. In the foreseeable future, I do not see any need.”

2. If Putin continues to insist that conscripts are non-deployable, then conscripts no longer have a place in the Ground Army. Logically the now useless draft ought to be ended, and the freed-up resources used to give brigades more of the deployable mobiki.

  1. peterinanz says

    “…conscripts should have been committed to war from day 1..”
    “…conscripts are non-deployable (an absurd stance) then they don’t have a role in the military. At least for the heavily pressured land combat arms, if they can not be part of the rotation then there is very little rationale to spend resources on them. Logic dictates that draft ought to be suspended indefinitely and the freed-up resources spent on mobiki….”
    And something else underneath it.

  2. Blackledge says

    The pictures are very telling, no? Young men in their prime will go nowhere near the war zone. Ever.

    White-haired old men long past their prime WILL go to the war zone, their arthritis, diabetes, old injuries and various physical disabilities, be damned.

    How is this not part of the WEF depopulation agenda? Doubtless all of the troops will be receiving MRNA “vaccines” as well. “For their safety.”

    1. Dianthus says

      Looks to me Putin is doing a ritual(satanic) here to prove himself and get a spot at the big table or is it just so that he is all a long in the pockets of USA (see Committee of 300) and this is all a show to get China back in the ranks bc these are the only big power that the Committee does not have in their pockets? Some here and there, but not all of it and who knows.. maybe is Putin playing a double spy here for the West (UK/USA)? If it is the latter, then it is logical that he will lose, so China will think twice before going on to the West bc CCP is a really worse bunch. It is all bad but some are more bad than others. + the people on the West gets on their knies in the coming food-energy crisis (thank you Putin bc if clown had not invaded then it was not happening!) and that means more controllable…

      These are some of my thoughts that I have when looking at the third side of the coin (the small one)

      1. Blackledge says

        Astute observations and excellent points, all.

  3. YakovKedmi says

    Very interesting. For the first time ever, older people are sent to war to die, not the young ones —V.V. might just turn out to be a caring guy. Young ones stay at home to make and raise future babies. Older people, especially if they suffer from some ailment, don’t give a flying hoot-fuck about many things. They are in no shape to run, so they stay their ground.

    Somebody is holding up the progress of the Ukrainian Army.
    An ill-trained, ill-equipped, very badly managed, under manned Expeditionary Force is holding up the Ukrainian Army. If it is true, that means the Ukrainian Army is just as bad as the Expeditionary Force —or, it means that in spite of useless, corrupt, fat lt-cols, majors and captains (luckily the generals were eliminated by Ukraine in March & April), lack of equipment and training, the Expeditionary Force is holding up the NATO-trained & equipped Ukrainian Army.

    By the end of November the ground will be frozen solid, foliage gone, and the Expeditionary Force will be replenished to where it was in February, with a division or two to spare. If the Ukrainian Army couldn’t do anything against a depleted Expeditionary Force in June, July, August, September, October, what will it accomplish facing the refurbished Expeditionary Force —in February the Expeditionary Force didn’t have one experienced lieutenant or soldier, now it has a few.

    In the meantime (unlike any time since February) Russian bombers and V-2 rockets are softening the Ukrainian Hinterland.

    According to Ukrainian propaganda, a good number of the newly activated reservists are suffering the ill-effects of Sputnik vaccine. Is there any report or data ?

    1. YakovKedmi says
    2. TZVI says

      E. Slavsquat supplied the data from Argentina that showed the Sputnik Injection had more immediate adverse reactions than even the Astra Zeneca Injection, just about anything that injects or creates Spike proteins will cause some damage in a certain percentage of subjects…so anything is possible. As for the other “Vaccines” the mRNA injections ( pfizer Moderna) have their own set of problems ( heart damage, sterilization, reverse transcription to the liver /DNA modification, etc. etc.).

      However I think it is just as logical to conclude that the RF want the bulk of forces to stay behind due to threats of NATO intervention /invasion. Keeping the youngest out of harms way ( mostly) also keeps political dissent down, and as pointed out older folks just don’t quite as much about dying than some immature 18-19 Y/O.

  4. Yuno says

    “Logic dictates”….
    but wait!

    We are far beyond the realm where “logic’s” dictate has any traction now. To rely upon it is therefore counterproductive. Inarguably, we are dealing with a ‘crime scene.’ The great ‘fictionalist'(and secret agent/cipherist) E.A. Poe provided us the necessary tools almost two centuries ago. Who will now dare use them – to solve the ‘post-reality’ extinction event now upon us?

    Poe’s ‘metafictional’ detective – Augustin Dupin – was the practitioner of a method of investigation which deliberately avoids the pitfalls of a ‘rational’ examination of the crime scene. Via Dupin, Poe develops a new system for establishing relationships between unknown events and the motives or solutions to complex problems – a ‘ratiocinative thinking process’ which utilizes the ‘irrational’ substrata beneath almost ALL ‘human action,’ & in so doing, separates the relevant from irrelevant facts in a case. Let’s apply –

    the separation of the ‘conscript’ & ‘mobilized’ is the ‘red herring’ here. What’s not been noted is the bizarre part of this set up whereby(some say up to)”700,000″ Russ males of fighting age are allowed(encouraged?) to simply depart… and avoid the fate which awaits the non-urban, less privileged who could not. Whether we call them the ‘intelligentsia,’ the ‘privileged,’ ‘deserters,’ or whatever is irrelevant; the fact that they were ALLOWED to go is what matters.

    Will that diaspora ever be returning to Russia? I have no clear answer – but whatever that answer is, it’s key to ‘deciphering’ the madcap script by which this diabolical ‘theatre of death’ unfolds. Poe had many ‘contacts’ with the circles of “franco-masonic” conspirators who have hatched all of the madness which has led in sequence from the terrors of Robespierre through Bronstein to Mao/Pol Pot, and now “Schwab & Co.” His ‘fictional’ stories reflect the stark terror of the world he saw coming into being via the mad visions of “Yakob Frank” and the inheritors of Tzevi’s millennialist nightmare, as well as the devolution of the western mind.

    Shall the diasporic crowd of refugee Russ refuseniks be the kernel of a new strain of Slav genome which will replace the now degraded/slated for extinction western European/norte americano ethnos? WHO/WHAT will they be bred with?

    Only the scriptwriters know.

    1. Dianthus says

      And these are the ones that knows it:

      The Committee of 300

      Read the first 20-25 pages and then look outside again and this is from 30 years ago.

      A real 💎 if you ask me and we get so see how this world is really being run… most have no clue and the facts, happenings, persons, institutions, is all genuine so far I have researched it.

  5. TZVI says

    Ha Ha love the picture of Grandpa(s) with the AKM-74, I wonder if the volunteered or were drafted?

    As long as they don’t have to run much ( don’t gain much ground, don’t retreat 🙂 ), they can man a trench as good or better than a teenager. They just have to hold the line, or as the famous saying goes ” Hold until relieved”.

    War is usually a terrible thing, at least some of those who are pretty darn old are getting in the “tea party” and taking the hits for the younger generation…

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