Russia Evacuates Snake Island With Additional Losses
Actually if anyone was evacuated or if everyone on the island was killed is an open question
After Ukrainian drones destroyed three Russian air defense systems on Snake Island each of a different kind, the Ukrainians delivered something of a coup de grâce and hit the island in a bombing run by a pair of Su-27s.
TB2 UCAV footage showing two Ukrainian Su-27 fighters conducting air strikes on Snake Island. Pretty clear that the Russian Navy is concerned with Ukraine's Neptuns and can't provide air defense coverage for the island because of its proximity to shore.https://t.co/AViBnwx6A0 pic.twitter.com/Ionuv91T0n
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) May 7, 2022
Actually, it wasn’t the most professional bombing run ever. Actually, the footage is so cartoonish that I initially thought it was fake. The second plane nearly gets engulfed by the explosion caused by the first one.
But hey. Ukrainian pilots get few flight hours (even far less than the Russian ones), they have to assume enemy fighters could be near, and the Su-27 has only the most rudimentary ground targeting capability. All said, they did as well as could be expected under the circumstance if not better. They certainly caused a lot of destruction.
Then things got worse.
Russia made the (correct) decision to evacuate the rock and sent at least one helicopter with special forces to accomplish the task, only for the evac helicopter to be destroyed as well.
This might be the first TB2 UCAV aviation kill. It looks like a Russian Mi-8 helicopter was struck while dismounting soldiers onto Snake Island.https://t.co/WUzl79ipFt pic.twitter.com/EleZYZwT2a
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) May 8, 2022
The evac helicopter is dismounting troops and what are probably medical supplies because they need to help any of the garrison who are wounded. They would also be looking to unload shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles. They could be taking a defensive position around the helicopter because they don’t have communication with the garrison or just not to take any chances.
Actually initially the Russian MoD spokespeople (and we know how reliable government PR people are) came out with the story that Snake Island had been successfully fully evacuated (like Moskva was evacuated?) which supposedly led to Ukrainians trying to capture the vacated island, allowing the Russians to destroy 3 transport helicopters loaded with Ukrainian troops, as well as a number of other aircraft, and one boat.
To back up this claim the Russian MoD posted zero footage.
The Ukrainians (this time) did not share any elaborate narratives, but simply posted TB2 footage of a helicopter exploding as it unloads troops on the rock.
Pro-Z commentators rushed to say the footage was made by a Ukrainian drone but it actually recorded the destruction of a Ukrainian helicopter.
Perhaps that was plausible? Maybe after the Ukrainians had pounded the island they became overambitious and tried taking it for themselves leading to a disaster?
They wouldn’t be the first warring side ever to commit an unforced error like that. However, why would Ukraine seek to unload troops on a small rock the Russians could obliterate with cruise and ballistic missiles at will?
Having just proven that Snake Island was a death trap why would they seek to set themselves up on it? If Russians were sitting ducks on the rock for Ukrainian drones, then surely the Ukrainians must have understood that they themselves would be even more so at the mercy of Russian missiles?
Also to the Ukrainians the island is of no strategic value. They already hold the nearby coast. The rock doesn’t give them anything they don’t already have. (For the Russians the rock had some strategic utility in helping to blockade Odessa — if it could be defended.)
That part of the story really didn’t make sense. One side (the Russians in this case) trying to make the correct move and evacuate, made a lot more sense than one side (the Ukrainians) trying to make the wrong move and set themselves up as sitting ducks.
Indeed, after a while the Wagner Telegram channel broke rank. The helicopter had been Russian:
In two months nothing has changed around the island we occupied. No separation has been created in the air defense, and the means of destruction of the enemy have not been suppressed. In just a few days, according to conservative estimates, the enemy destroyed the Mi-8 AMTSh (no, this is not a Ukrainian Armed Forces helicopter) with the crew and the special forces evacuation group (I hope those who were nearby are still alive)…
The Rybar Telegram channel which had pushed the MoD version relentlessly also soon made a U-turn:
Unfortunately, we have to state that the video with the destruction of the Mi-8AMTSh from Zmeiny Island is not the result of the work of the RF Armed Forces. This is a Russian helicopter destroyed by the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
It was assigned to the 487th separate helicopter regiment. The deputy commander of the regiment for military-political work was also killed. Eternal memory to the fallen.
The island is now in the gray zone.
There had been no Ukrainian attempt at taking the island. The destroyed helicopter had been Russian. Russian MoD ass-covering team had lied.
To send a helicopter to evacuate the island was the right call, but why the helicopter was not covered by fighters and AWACS aircraft that could make short work of any drones is difficult to understand.
We have certainly seen a lot of Russian “propensity for improvisation” in this war.
Also since the only evac helicopter that we know flew to Snake Island was destroyed we don’t really know if any evacuation actually happened, or if everyone on the island was simply killed or left for dead.
Were there other helicopters that made it in and out? Or was that one helicopter the sum of the Russian evacuation?
Today everyone seems to be talking about this video of an Mi-8 helicopter being destroyed on Ukraine's Snake Island by a loitering Bayraktar TB-2. A short 🧵 on what the Russians' behaviour on this video tells us about the situation there. /1 pic.twitter.com/4w5FNpAkiq
— ChrisO (@ChrisO_wiki) May 8, 2022
At least 8 Russians can be seen on the ground in this video. The Mi-8 has 3 crew and can carry up to 24 passengers, so I think we can safely assume at least 11 Russians were involved here – quite possibly more. /2 pic.twitter.com/4Ca6UQc2cg
— ChrisO (@ChrisO_wiki) May 8, 2022
According to a claimed Wagner (mercenary group) channel, the Russians were a "special forces evacuation group". This is quite believable. Ukraine has been attacking the island heavily. /3https://t.co/yKzwgAJaie
— ChrisO (@ChrisO_wiki) May 8, 2022
In the most recent attack, Ukrainian Su-27s bombed buildings on the island, causing massive secondary explosions. Most if not all of the members of the Russian garrison were likely injured or killed in this surprise attack. /4pic.twitter.com/dGE3WqseB1
— ChrisO (@ChrisO_wiki) May 8, 2022
Now let's look carefully at what the airborne Russian troops are doing in the moments before they are hit. 1-4 and 8 are prone on the ground in outward-facing defensive positions. 5-7 are apparently unloading things from the helicopter. /5 pic.twitter.com/Cx1oQLE0eS
— ChrisO (@ChrisO_wiki) May 8, 2022
It's not clear what they're unloading, but I would guess at a minimum rations, medical supplies, ammunition and probably MANPADs, to replace the fixed air defences destroyed by Ukraine's TB-2s in previous attacks. /6
— ChrisO (@ChrisO_wiki) May 8, 2022
Some Twitter commentators have suggested that the defensive behaviour of the troops indicates that they're actually Ukrainians and that it was a Ukrainian helo that was destroyed. There's nothing to suggest to me that that's true. /7
— ChrisO (@ChrisO_wiki) May 8, 2022
But if the island was already held by the Russians, why would a purported Russian evacuation force take up defensive positions? Who did they think they were defending against? Here's what it tells me. /8
— ChrisO (@ChrisO_wiki) May 8, 2022
It tells me that the Russians have lost communications with the island. They don't know if any of their garrison are still alive or if the Ukrainians have retaken it. They're treating it as hostile territory until proven otherwise. /9
— ChrisO (@ChrisO_wiki) May 8, 2022
It also tells me that their aerial reconnaissance is either absent or unable to clarify the situation. They know the island is badly damaged but not who controls it. This difficulty probably reflects the island's distance from Russian-held territory. /10 pic.twitter.com/eYf4MUq3SP
— ChrisO (@ChrisO_wiki) May 8, 2022
The Russians do have UAVs, but they probably don't want to risk their long-range ones being shot down. And there might not be an effective way of determining from the air who's in control, in any case. /11
— ChrisO (@ChrisO_wiki) May 8, 2022
This is where the loss of the missile cruiser Moskva is really hurting the Russians: they've lost a lot of their missile cover in the Black Sea. Ukraine has shown it can interdict travel to the island, so Russia now will likely have to abandon it. /end pic.twitter.com/F2gZVW8Eow
— ChrisO (@ChrisO_wiki) May 8, 2022
Initial Tor near the lighthouse was hit sometime before 14:49 local time on May 6th.
Su-27 strike happened after this.
Serna was hit at 4:20 local time on the morning of May 7th.
Mi-8 was hit at 00:53 on May 8th.
— Oliver Alexander (@OAlexanderDK) May 8, 2022
Today, Su-30SM fighters of #RussianNavy bombed runway of #Odessa airport. According to these images, #Ukrainian Air Force's 831st BrTA still has 3 Su-27SM1/PM1 interceptors on deployment there. They escorted the Su-25M1s which bombed Russian Navy at Zmiinyi Island a few days ago. pic.twitter.com/2b1MJW5ZCl
— Babak Taghvaee – Μπάπακ Τακβαίε – بابک تقوایی (@BabakTaghvaee) May 8, 2022
There is clearly a decision making process issue where RU command sits on the fence. Snake island is perfect illustration. Either leave and cover it with Kalibr and Co. Or hold but then have CAP 24/7. Such a small island requires a limited effort. Probably from 8/16 planes. 1/2
— 3Tro³ (@TriTro29) May 8, 2022
Take a container ship, set a s-300/400 radar system on it (like Iran) have it run circles 100km from Crimean coast. Just an example. TB-2 has endurance but is slow. Jets would be on area before TB-2 can exit. So at least damage is offset. But now? 2/2
— 3Tro³ (@TriTro29) May 8, 2022
Russian MoD release today. Should clear up the Ukie propaganda. Surprised Anti Empire falls for this stuff but there you go.
On May 7, on direct orders from Zelensky, the Ukrainian General Staff, with the direct involvement of advisers from the USA and Britain, planned a major provocation to seize Zmeiny Island.
▫️Over the past two days, the Kiev regime has made several desperate attempts to land air and sea assaults on Zmeiny Island, which is important for controlling the northwestern part of the Black Sea.
▫️The Ukrainian provocation was thwarted as a result of the competent actions of a Russian Armed Forces unit on the island. The enemy suffered heavy losses.
▫️4 Ukrainian airplanes, including 3 Su-24 and 1 Su-27, 3 Mi-8 helicopters with paratroopers on board, and 1 Mi-24 helicopter have been shot down in the air while repelling the attacks near Zmeiny Island.
▫️Within two days, 29 Ukrainian UAVs have been shot down in the air, including 8 Bayraktar TB-2 strike UAVs. Meanwhile, 4 Bayraktar drones have been shot down this afternoon.
▫️Also, 3 armoured Ukrainian amphibious assault boats carrying Ukrainian naval personnel were destroyed during an attempted landing on the night of May 8.
▫️As a result of Zelensky’s thoughtless provocation, more than 50 Ukrainian saboteurs have been killed at sea and on the coast during the landing and attempts to consolidate on the island.
▫️24 bodies of dead Ukrainian servicemen were left on the shore of Zmeiny Island.
Saw a video of a Ukie Chopper landing, troops getting out to lay defensive perimeter and then unload ammunition from said chopper, who else could it be but the Ukraines? The Russians wouoldn’t need to do any of that, they owned the island already.
Copy-pasting infowar of one of the warring parties. You’re an imbecile. Try not to litter here with your perverse trash.
Anti-bla’bla and skull empty, I have a bit of more interesting info for u guys, even so it’s hurting you: “On Snake Island, English and American high-ranking officers disappeared during the landing. For their sake, the Ukrainian military fought for two days. But it was not possible to return the officers, or at least their bodies. According to our source in the General Staff, an American marine lieutenant colonel, as well as an English major from the commando brigade of the marine corps, landed on Snake Island together with Ukrainian fighters.
They coordinated the work of NATO intelligence assets and the Ukrainian landing forces. Both officers landed in the first wave. But then the Russians shot down three helicopters and one landing craft was sunk. The remaining boats withdrew, leaving the first wave of landing on the shore. According to our source, London and Washington demanded that Zelensky make every effort to return their officers. Despite several attempts to re-land on the island, it was not possible to find out the fate of the English and American marines. It is assumed that they died in battle with the Russians. But so far, as our source says, there is no confirmation of this information. It is possible that both were captured. In turn, the attempt to return their bodies cost the Ukrainian forces several planes and helicopters shot down, as well as several dozen dead marines and special forces.”
You’re an imbecile.
Kiev has so far lost 30 drones, 10 helicopters, four jets, three ships, and upwards of 50 troops in failed attempts to take Snake Island, the Russian Ministry of Defense has revealed. Urged on by British advisers, President Volodymyr Zelensky personally ordered the attack and wanted to see a victory by May 9, media reported citing security sources.
During Monday’s briefing about the fighting on the island, Konashenkov said that Ukrainian forces had lost three Su-24 bombers, one Su-27 fighter, four helicopters and three Centaur-class assault ships. On Tuesday, he clarified that three Mi-8 troop carriers and one Mi-24 attack helicopter were shot down on Saturday, while six more were later destroyed on the ground near Odessa, for a total of ten.
https://www.rt.com/russia/555268-snake-island-pr-military/
I trust Russian media far more than Ukraine media and RT, Southfront and Sputnik seem to concur.