Russia Does 1999. Behold Moscow Manufacturing a Massively Phony, CNN-Inspired Pretext for War

Hey! I've seen this movie before!

A big day of shelling on the Donbass-Ukraine contact line. Nothing super extraordinary, and without confirmed deaths on either side, but unseen in the past few years in terms of shells expended:

We don’t know who started it, or who fired the overwhelming number of shells, but we do know who is doing everything it can to overdramatize what has taken place:

You know what this means, don’t you? Soon Russia will have photos of masses of refugees (in snowy tents?) and under the rules established by the Empire in the 1990s having photos of “refugees” means you can wage a do-gooder “humanitarian” war.

In February 2008 the Empire declared the partition of Serbia and the recognition of Albanian independence on its territory. In August 2008 Russia immediately followed by recognizing the independence of South Ossetia to punish Saakshivili’s Georgia for its sneak offensive which killed Russian peacekeepers. (To be fair, if you’re going to launch an offensive against *the Russians* it better be a sneaky/surprise one.)

Both of these recognitions were in violation of international law but once the US did it first, Russia was satisfied to proclaim that what is good for the goose is good for the gander and followed suit.

Events of the past few days show that is not the only lesson Russia learned from Empire’s Balkan adventures.

The utterly phony Donbass refugee crisis we are seeing is straight from the CNN-NATO-KLA 1999 playbook. The 1992-1995 Bosnia War established that as long as you had a photo of refugees or two to point at you could get involved in somebody else’s civil war and intervene against the side you didn’t like.

Then the 1999 Kosovo War established that you didn’t necessarily need to wait for refugee photos to materialize on their own. You could speed up the process. In 1999 some Albanians fled Serb militias or fighting in general, but many more relocated because of LDK lobbying and KLA pressure (vs extended-family patriarchs) to take the short trek into Macedonia and provide fodder for CNN cameras as their patriotic duty to prop up America’s initially troubled bombing campaign. (The Algerians and the Vietnamese had made far greater sacrifices to achieve their independence. Impersonating refugees for a few weeks/months was a very small ask by comparison. Especially of a demographic which had already been collectively boycotting the Serbian state for a decade and was expert and experienced at mass action (and not above using reprisals against those who would not play along).)

Donbass seems to have studied the clever Kosovo Albanians closely. Pushilin is putting the same plan in motion, but one that’s even speedier. Putin has even promised every “refugee” a 10,000 ruble reward, sorry “aid”. (Poor Albanians, when they loaned themselves out as props they had to do it for free.)

Putin could explain the real reason he is contemplating war — he wants a quick and final resolution to squabbles between East Slavs. One that will once again and for the final time unite them in a single bloc. It’s all for the greater good in the long run as he sees it.

Kiev in 2014 sought to subdue Donetsk by force and started an East Slavic civil war in Ukraine. Now Putin, after many years of seeking a lesser solution, feels justified in escalating into a general East Slavic civil war. One that fully brings in the other big hegemonic East Slav capital — Moscow — and its superpower army.

If he can wage a quick campaign (he can) and with few losses on the Ukrainian side (doubtful) he can go into history as a Slavic Bismarck who ended internecine squabbles of his ethnic family and united them under a single hegemony.

Bismarck similarly waged a “Bruderkrieg” or “German Civil War” in 1866, but because he won quickly, the war is instead remembered fondly as a step on the road to German unification. And Bismarck is thus (rightly or wrongly) celebrated as a unifier and a master statesman in the West as a whole. (Even Lincoln who fought a far bloodier war of re-unification does not escape without gratitude and praise.)

Instead of this truth, we get a false-flag car bomb to answer the Maidainte false-flag sniper massacre. (At least this time around nobody was murdered.)

To evacuate 700,000 people because of shelling that is in no way unprecedented and which apparently killed nobody is trash.

Of course, if you’re an Anti-Empire reader you’re not the intended audience here. You’re too world-smart to buy this transparent nonsense.

This is for the benefit of those who are generally sympathetic but need some material for self-delusion. Some recent outrage.

Even if the portion of people on whom this will work is small, it’s still worth it to governments to get them what they need.

Karlin has it about right:

Meanwhile the same phony White-Helmet stunts of the other faction:

  1. edwardi says

    I really am beginning to dislike everything this author writes. Just don’t like his take on things. This is not theatre and people don’t leave their homes and belongings for a big tent party in some remote god knows where. We he says don’t know who fired the 1st shot, well, isn’t that just so gracious of him. I think ‘we’ got a pretty good idea. Russia continues to project strength, military assets are in place in the even Putin has to follow through on his previous pronouncements, but in the meantime he continues to push every avenue of peace, just refused to accept the territories into Russia so that the Minsk accords remained relevant, and continues to dialogue with the brain dead duplicitous Amerikkkans. If W. Ukraine sees the fire power being amassed to annihilate them, perhaps they might wake up to the suicide they will be committing on behalf of Joe Biden and friends. Obviously the US is too brain dead and uncaring and are quite willing to sacrifice the entirety of the W. Ukraine populace, if it furthers their political goals, and oh, that Mackinder thing about the heartland, to be top dog of the world, a bone the UK and the US are not yet quite willing to let go of, they gotta at least separate Russia from German alliance to keep the heartland theory viable. If they can’t do that it may theoretically be the death of the Empire.

  2. marcel maceau says

    “he can go into history as a Slavic Bismarck” … hahaha. Is this guy Marjanović for real? Or is this an avatar created by the enemies of peace? Putin does not need to imitate any “historical” figure (whatever this means for “Marjanović”. Putin stands in history on his own.

  3. Bdddd says

    Sereš mnogo sine. Smanji doživljaj, nije mudrost za svakoga

    1. kombijakov says

      This has to be written by ukronazi.
      No Serb would ever sign this garbage.

      1. Zoran Aleksic says

        Yes, they would. We got them by tons over here. Hatred for Serbia as well as for Russia pays well. Then again, if he’s onto something here I could not tell. Read a few of the other texts of his here and they reek of anti-Putin sentiment. I’m not a fan of Putin’s, but this person’s position should be more with the cnn, or fox. Or he’s being sarcastic. Let him write his heart out. It’s up to us to follow or not.

    2. Boro from Slavija says

      Covjek govori istinu. Ne treba samo na jednu stranu ciljati, kada je potrebno.

  4. Hostage (Raptar) Driver says

    Marco, you make some good points however it seems to lead nowhere.
    I really don’t know what you’re getting at.

  5. Shimrod says

    Anti empire starting to look more like Anti Russia?

    1. Kevin Barsi says

      im pretty sure hes who the saker was talking about in his article about the russian 5th and 6th column.

  6. ZoA says

    This baffon is spreading US popaganda.

  7. Thomas Malthaus says

    One day Marko and Edward will have to tell us why they’re so angry at Russians.

  8. Alberto Nieto says

    Decently elaborated argument, marred by some ad hominem, but hey, this is Internet.
    The flaw of the argument is that the West’s MSM pretty much ignores the real or faked plight of Donbas refugees, so who is “the show” for? Russia’s domestic consumption?
    Unlikely, unless Russia is more like US than we realize. Maybe that’s Marko’s point.
    However, and more seriously, if “Oluja” scenario is planned for Donbas – and it is a real possibility, according to other analysts (eg. Stratpol) – “Bismarck” will be “итекако” needed.

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