Pro-Empire Telegram Channel Claims to Have Mole in Iranian High Command
Numerous people say it's true
Imagine that the US has invaded Iran.
Imagine that during this invasion there is an American pro-war Telegram channel. This channel is bringing numerous updates from the war celebrating American successes and advances.
Imagine that this private US Telegram channel every evening, without fail, updates its readers on Iranian losses for the past 24 hours down to a single-digit. For example, a typical update might read:
Iranian Army KIA: 53,273 + 639 (last 24 hours)
Iranian Army WIA: 23,355 + 357
Iranian Army Captured: 3,566 + 14
Islamic Reolutionary Guard Corps KIA: 7,573 + 185
IRGC WIA: 3,445 + 357
IRGC Captured: 703 + 3
Tanks destroyed: 1,201 + 13
Armored vehicles : 2,449 + 28
Artillery pieces: 3,522 + 21
MLRS: 355 + 4
Air defense systems: 259 + 5
Motor vehicles: 6,559 + 17
Aircraft: 127 + 1
Now imagine this private American Telegram channel said it was able to provide accurate and so very detailed enemy losses so regularly because it had a mole in the Iranian General Staff.
Imagine the channel also solicited reader donations which it claimed would be spent purchasing (and publishing) even more Iranian state secrets!
Now if you heard this; that a private pro-war US Telegram channel had access to super detailed and super regular Iranian losses updates through a mole in the Iranian General Staff how believable would you find that?
If your eccentric uncle wanted to send them money to help them “purchase even more Iranian secrets” would you A) chip in yourself, or B) explain to him he was being defrauded?
Might you tell your uncle something like:
Think about it statistically. A general staff mole leaking secrets to an enemy Telegram channel daily can not be disproven, but is surely a wild, extraordinary and bizarre event, and therefore a low-probability one.
How many wars do you think would need to be fought to reach a 50% probability that at least in one there was one such Telegram mole? Hundreds? Thousands? Millions?
And Telegram is a very young application, launched in 2013.
That Telegram has achieved such an unlikely coup so quickly into its life — with just a couple of wars since 2013 to pull this off in — is astronomically unlikely.
Or might you tell your uncle something like:
I see you’ve been hitting the sauce again, Uncle Frank. There’s zero fucking chance they have a mole in the Ayatollah’s General Staff and here’s why:
The very first time they publicized something from him they would burn him, and cause him a painful death.
If they actually had a mole the first time they published his casualty counts the Iranian secret police would look into everyone with access to that and they would find him and hang him, and that would be the end of that.
Or at the very least it would make it far too hot for him to continue. No way anybody gets away with this for 80 days straight.
Perhaps you would inform your uncle of this simple fact instead:
No way they have a mole. If they actually had a mole the very first time they said so, the CIA would knock on their door and A) order them to stop endangering him, and B) took the mole for themselves to use for far more useful stuff.
Reality is that if a pro-war US Telegram channel claimed a mole in the Iranian General Staff was supplying it with daily Iranian casualty updates everyone with a brain cell would laugh at this.
What could possibly be the mole’s motivation to work with a private Telegram channel, and be supplying daily casualty counts of all things? (Which is little more than trivia. Why not supply the size and position of Ukrainian forces?)
If he was motivated by money he could get far more from the CIA. If he was politically motivated and wanted Iran to lose he could likewise do far more working with the CIA.
And why work with amateurs who are endangering you daily, instead of with pros who are going to keep your existence and work secret? Why go through greater risk for a lower payoff??
Actually, all of this has happened. There is a Telegram channel that claims to have a mole in enemy General Staff and people who profess themselves to be intelligent are eating it up.
The Russian pro-war Telegram channel Rybar publishes (very high) daily “Ukrainian losses” in men, tanks, vehicles, guns, etc down to a single digit and claims these are not figments of their imagination but information straight from the Ukrainian General Staff where the channel has a secret mole and people intelligent enough tie their shoelaces are twisting themselves into knots to come with reasons why this blatant vomit is plausible and even convincing.
Tens of thousands of war junkies desperate for updates and good news are shooting it up and never asking themselves why someone would be risking his life just to provide them with their next hit. Of all the things a mole in the General Staff could be doing he devotes himself to…supplying the news junkies? How does that work? Never mind. We want this to be true, therefore we are going to convince ourselves this is true.
It’s imbecilic it’s what it is. And we are surrounded by imbeciles. Hordes and hordes of them.
Problem is people don’t frown enough. If you aren’t frowning you aren’t thinking. Too many idiots failing to subject anything that soothes their biases to any scrutiny. Everything has to be subject to the scrutiny of common sense. Even stuff that is soothing. Especially the stuff that is soothing.
Or if you disagree, consider sending Rybar a check so they can
make even more stuff up purchase even more Ukrainian state secrets for ya.
Hilariously since May 14 Rybar has stopped publishing the Ukrainian “losses” infographic (was the cringe starting to be too much even for them?) and the lemmings are trying to construct a story where this going on for 80 days (80 FREAKING DAYS!!) but no more than 80, is further proof that it was all true all along:
Gleb Bazov: "Indirect evidence of the existence of Rybar’s insider source at the Ukrainian General Staff that had been providing them with internal losses reports is the fact that Rybar has not published any updates of Ukrainian losses in some time (since May 14th, I believe)."
— Dr.Snekotron (@snekotron) May 18, 2022
They are not I checked. I am afraid his source in the General Staff has gone quiet. I hope he or she has gone to ground but given who the Ukrainians are, I fear the worst.
— Just Me (@failure1991) May 27, 2022
— Dr.Snekotron (@snekotron) May 18, 2022
LOL ya. Somebody died to supply you your daily infographic hit. On what drugs do you have to be to construct such a story? What is the name of this drug? Entitlement? Egomania?
And what exactly is the argument here? That Rybar asked someone to sacrifice their life so they can do their channel updates?
It’s literally a case that if you buy Rybar’s trash they come out looking even worse than if they were lying all along, which they were.
I’m sorry but we do not live in a world where what is not remotely plausible for American channels suddenly becomes believable when we’re talking Russian ones. The common sense that would let you spot a lie in one case doesn’t change with the nationality of the channel. Only your b-i-a-s.
Wishful “thinking” is hell of a drug.
PS.: We’re talking Russian security organs here who shut down Dragon_First way back in March for simply making a map (using open sources plus some educated guesswork) that was a little too accurate for their liking. They’re going to let amateurs run and endanger a mole in the General Staff for 80 days? Get real.
PS2.: Rybar ceasing to publish the cringe daily infographic coincides with their launching the “Wartears.org” website that attempts to quantify and identify Ukrainian dead and captured from Russian and DLPR sources.