New Delhi Has Near Herd Immunity Levels of Antibodies Seroprevalence and No Armaggeddon
70% are going to get it and 2% are going to die, yeah right. Over 50% in New Delhi have already had it and mortality is impossible to tell from normal
The capital could be heading towards developing herd immunity from Covid-19, with the fifth serological survey indicating over 50% of Delhiites having developed antibodies, sources said. This could be a reason behind the consistent dip in the number of new cases this month, experts said.
Delhi government conducted the survey between January 11 and 21, during which 28,000 samples, the highest till date, were collected from across the 11 districts. “It will take more than a week for the report to come in but seroprevalence is over 50% this time and, in one district, it is around 60%,” a source said. “This indicates that a large section of the population has developed antibodies and Delhi is moving towards attaining herd immunity.”
The first serological survey, conducted between June-end and the first week of July, had revealed the presence of Covid-19 antibodies in around 24% of the 21,387 samples. The third survey in September had shown 25.1% seroprevalence while the fourth survey in October, at 25.5%, didn’t indicate much change.
A population may attain herd immunity when a large section of people have been affected by a virus and have become immune by developing antibodies, and form a layer between the infected and those who are not, and break the chain of infection.
“If the number is correct, it partially explains why the numbers are coming down in Delhi,” said Dr Lalit Kant, former head of the epidemiology department at Indian Council of Medical Research. “However, it is important that these antibodies should persist for a long period because if these are for only two to three months, people will become susceptible to the virus again.”
Kant said the mere presence of antibodies would not mean long-term immunity but the level of antibodies would indicate their duration in the population. In many countries, he said, such antibodies remained for just four to six months.
Source: The Times of India