Medical University of Vienna: COVID-Positive Mortality Not Significantly Different From Normal Mortality
Impossible to tell for sure that virus-positive Austrians are dying any sooner than virus-negative ones
Machine translated from German.
So far, more than 240 people have died of Covid-19 in Austria. Now the age and gender distribution have been analyzed for the first time.
More than 240 people have died of Covid-19 in Austria so far. Martin Posch from the Center for Medical Statistics at MedUni Vienna and his team analyzed the age and gender distribution for the first time. Conclusion: The Covid 19 victim curve in Austria corresponds approximately to the “normal” mortality among men and women in the individual age groups. Two thirds of the victims are men.
Covid 19 victims made up two thirds of men
The scientists base their analysis on 112 deaths with SARS-CoV-2 infection who were entered in the epidemiological reporting system of the Ministry of Health until March 31 (3:00 p.m.) (out of a total of 118 Covid-19 victims by then). “Almost two thirds of the deceased were men (69; 43 women; note)”, the experts state.
It can be seen from the distribution of age and gender that the majority of the deceased are over 60 years old. The experts: “Most of the deceased are in the age groups 61 to 70 years (men) and 71 to 80 years (women). However, the absolute numbers have to be related to the population size in the respective age group.”
Mortality in “normal” mortality tables is not significantly different
If you compare this with the “normal” mortality tables in the Austrian population, SARS-CoV-2 and Covid-19 show that mortality in men and women is not significantly different from that otherwise. The scientists: “The (death) risk of men remains higher than that of women until old age and only approaches that of women at the end of the curve.”
Conclusion: “If we compare this normal risk of death with the previous Covid-19 mortality rates, we see that the curves run almost parallel. (…) This suggests that the risk of death with Covid-19 is essentially is proportional to the normal risk for that age group, and the age dependence of the risk is similar. ”
Mortality is difficult to assess
It is very difficult to assess how high the mortality rate among those infected with SARS-CoV-2 is. That depends on the number of tests and the number of unreported infections. “However, this undisclosed figure can lead to an overestimation of the death rate and probably explains part of the difference between the death rates observed in the different countries,” says Posch and his team. “The clues on the ‘Diamond Princess’, the cruise ship on which all passengers were tested and a death rate of 1.5 percent (11 out of 712 tested positive) provided an indication.” [However cruise ship tourists are much older than the general population.]
Number of years of life lost by Covid-19 unknown
The statistics could not answer the question whether the risk of dying from Covid-19 is an additional risk or whether the majority of those who would have died this year of life die. The scientists: “How many years of life one loses (on average) from a Covid-19 infection is unknown. However, since many seriously ill people are affected with already shortened life expectancy, it seems obvious that the additional effect on general life expectancy will be less, than it could be derived from the mortality rates alone. ”
Reports from Switzerland and Italy currently indicate that the death toll in some regions in the recent past has been higher than the long-term average, but clear statements could not be made in this way: “To what extent the deaths actually affect everyone who affects them even without Covid-19 would have died this year, will probably be shown in the annual statistics. ”
Source: Vienna Online