Lockdowns Made No Difference to Virus Course, Infection Rates Went Down When They Were Ended — JP Morgan Study

Outbreaks had their own dynamic and resolution we failed to affect

Coronavirus lockdowns have failed to alter the course of the pandemic but have instead ‘destroyed millions of livelihoods’, a JP Morgan study has claimed.

Falling infection rates since lockdowns were lifted suggest that the virus ‘likely has its own dynamics’ which are ‘unrelated to often inconsistent lockdown measures’, a report published by the financial services giant said.

Denmark is among the countries which has seen its R rate continue to fall after schools and shopping malls re-opened, while Germany’s rate has mostly remained below 1.0 after the lockdown was eased.

The report also shows many US states including Alabama, Wisconsin and Colorado enjoying lower R rates after lockdown measures were lifted.

Author Marko Kolanovic, a trained physicist and a strategist for JP Morgan, said governments had been spooked by ‘flawed scientific papers‘ into imposing lockdowns which were ‘inefficient or late’ and had little effect.

‘Unlike rigorous testing of new drugs, lockdowns were administered with little consideration that they might not only cause economic devastation but potentially more deaths than Covid-19 itself,’ he claimed.

The JP Morgan report includes graphs showing that ‘the vast majority of countries had decreased infection rates’ after lockdowns were lifted.

Infection rates have continued to decline even once a lag period for new infections to become visible is factored in, the report says.

A second graph shows a similar effect in the US, showing that many states saw a lower rate of transmission (R) after full-scale lockdowns were ended.

They included Colorado, Iowa, Alabama, Wyoming, Wisconsin and Mississippi, according to the chart, although not all states are included.

Nevada and North Dakota are among the exceptions which appear to have had a higher rate of transmission since normal life began to resume.

The R rate shows how many people each virus patient typically infects, and some countries regard a rate below 1.0 as a key indicator that the epidemic is in retreat.

‘While we often hear that lockdowns are driven by scientific models, and that there is an exact relationship between the level of economic activity and the spread of [the] virus – this is not supported by the data,’ the report says.

‘Indeed, virtually everywhere infection rates have declined after re-opening even after allowing for an appropriate measurement lag.

‘This means that the pandemic and Covid-19 likely have [their] own dynamics unrelated to often inconsistent lockdown measures that were being implemented.’

Those dynamics may be influenced by increased hand-washing and even weather patterns but seemingly not by full-scale lockdowns, the report suggests.

‘The fact that re-opening did not change the course of the pandemic is consistent with studies showing that initiation of full lockdowns did not alter the course of the pandemic either,’ it says.

An Oxford University professor has previously suggested that the crisis in Britain began falling from its peak before Boris Johnson ordered a lockdown on March 23.

Professor Carl Heneghan said last month that the peak of new cases had come on April 8, suggesting a peak of infection three weeks earlier around March 18.

The JP Morgan analysis linked the decision to impose lockdowns to ‘flawed scientific papers’ predicting millions of deaths in the West.

‘This on its own was odd, given that in China there were only several thousand deaths, and the mortality rate outside of Wuhan was very low,’ it says.

‘In the absence of conclusive data, these lockdowns were justified initially. Nonetheless, many of these efforts were inefficient or late.’

In some European countries, studies suggest that the measures ‘did not produce any change in pandemic parameters’ such as the R rate, the JP Morgan report says.

Kolanovic says that lockdowns had remained in place even as ‘our knowledge of the virus and lack of effectiveness of total lockdowns evolved’.

‘At the same time, millions of livelihoods were being destroyed by these lockdowns,’ he writes.

Countries in lockdown are having to blow huge holes in their budgets to counter the economic standstill which is forcing millions of people into unemployment.

The report also cites ‘worrying populism’ as an obstacle to re-opening the economy, for example in the US where senators passed an anti-China measure this week.

It warns that economic activity in the US is ‘now largely following partisan lines’ as Republican and Democratic governors adopt different strategies for their states.

As well as casting doubt on the wisdom of imposing lockdowns in the first place, the report suggests that economies could now be re-opened more quickly.

Denmark is among the countries which has started re-opening its economy without seeing a new surge in virus cases.

Zoos, museums and cinemas have re-opened early in Denmark with many children now back at school after scientists said the R rate had continued to fall.

Germany has also been confident enough to scale back the lockdown after the R rate mostly stayed below 1.0 following an initial lifting of restrictions.

However, chancellor Angela Merkel has repeatedly urged caution and warned that a second wave of virus cases could leave hospitals overwhelmed.

The UK government has similarly warned that some restrictions could be re-imposed if there is a ‘sudden and concerning’ rise in new cases.

The World Health Organisation has urged ‘extreme vigilance’ about lifing lockdowns, saying there is ‘always the risk that the virus takes off again’.

WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said that some countries such as Germany and South Korea had systems in place to respond to a new surge.

However, Britain’s efforts to set up a tracking and tracing system have been hampered by delays in rolling out the necessary app.

Tedros said that a ‘comprehensive package of measures’ is needed until a vaccine becomes available, which is likely to be many months away at least.

It is not yet fully clear how many people have been infected or to what extent they are now immune, but most people remain susceptible.

Some vaccine projects have already begun testing humans, including at Oxford University.

Up to 1,102 participants have been recruited across multiple study sites in Oxford, Southampton, London and Bristol, although results are not expected for weeks.

Imperial College London is also progressing with its vaccine candidate and will look to move into clinical trials by mid-June, with larger scale trials in October.

However, experts and politicians warn there is no guarantee that an effective vaccine will ever be developed.

Even if it is, there are concerns about how it will be distributed in large enough quantities to bring the pandemic to a standstill.

Source: The Daily Mail

  1. David Green says

    jp morgan hahahahahahahahahahahah

  2. StupidNet says

    What a total crock of shit this article is. It’s also based largely on non-existent “testing” claims. Infections are still increasing. https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/26/health/us-coronavirus-tuesday/index.html

    Something else idiots don’t know. Holding “steady” doesn’t mean what you think. It means as people get sick and / or die, they are “replaced” with new people getting sick (or dying), keeping a steady number. It certainly doesn’t mean infections are going down – it actually means MORE people got infected (overall totals) and MORE people have died, contributing to the overall totals.

    Your readership is either very, very stupid or part of the asinine connedspiracy crowd of idiots that have abandoned critical thought and accept any garbage published.


    I demand an arrest of all parties responsible..all mayors, all governors, all the federal government workers, and fema, cdc, who..all of you SOBs i am putting you under citizens arrest for needless, idiotic orders that cause this destruction of lives…TURN YOURSELF IN..dont make me have to come and kick your asses while putting you under arrest!

    1. Eileen Kuch says

      Tell it, Badger Badgerism! Tell it!!!

  4. Cretins Bezoar says

    How much they paying these ‘test subjects’ to be vaccinated?

  5. InsanelyBright says

    Saving your silly post because we will have a 2nd and more minor 3rd wave.

    1. Padraigin Eagle says

      InanelyDumb. And yes, there will be a second wave simulation (imitation, sham), blamed on another hoax event, bio-terrorism or something equally scary to the asheep. But then you clearly love being sheared. Did I mention, ‘it’s time to wake up’.

    2. Robert Codey says

      Yup. All the people who die of cancer, heart disease and other ails will be marked as covid deaths. Just like has been happening since this started.

  6. GAguidestones says

    Georgia calculated the total numbers of deaths by all causes, for the first quarters of the years of 2018, 2019, and 2020.

    This year’s first quarter had 350 fewer deaths than either 2018, or 2019.

    The covid-19 did not elevate the general cause of deaths at all, it was actually decreased.

  7. Wiley Coyote says

    If “COVID-19” infections continue to fall off as dramatically as indicated, then there will be no need for Bill Gates’s “vaccine” to be taken together with sterilant and his digital “Mark of the Beast” identifier.

  8. dreamjoehill says

    The flaw in this study is the lag in reporting COVID infection and death. The drop since the lockdowns were ended would appear to be attributable to that lag; so the drop is actually attributable to the lockdown, dure to the lag.

    In any case, the infection and death rates in the US post-lockdown has begun to incraese rapidly:

    Orange County in Southern California reported its highest number of deaths and new cases in a single day on Wednesday with 10 deaths and 249 confirmed cases.

    At least 4,742 cases and 98 deaths have been reported in the county, according to the Orange County Health Care Agency (HCA).

    The number of new cases in Florida has also begun to rise, with a sharp increase to 1,204 on Thursday. On that day, the number of new cases in Louisiana increased more than four-fold from the day before,

    1. Padraigin Eagle says

      The flaw in dreamjoehill: Listen Melinda, if you want to quote the faked numbers, best you tone down the Newspeak, as your bought and sold slip is showing.

      1. dreamjoehill says

        You’re babbling.

        Wipe the drool off your chin, imbecile.

        1. Padraigin Eagle says

          reamjoehill: Sayeth Big Brother’s lover, the proles tongue and lips browned all over, obsequious he be as he aims to please, never for a moment getting off his knees, but then it’s Protocol, and the willfully ignorant must pay their fees!

          1. dreamjoehill says

            You are completely full of shit, and clearly rightist scum

            1. Padraigin Eagle says

              Sayeth the libtarded moron: That safe space not working anymore, snowflake. Best then that you keep those gloves on, always, all the time, your mask of the beast tightly pressed against your face (don’t dare remove it, death lurking in the crisis actor shadows) and the detergent spray on full blast, and don’t ever never touch your face, lest bodily ailments become ye. And don’t forget to remember, dreamjoebluepill, you must always love Big Brother.

            2. dreamjoehill says

              Go fq yourself, you rightwing dirtbag.

              What a total piece of sht.

              I didn’t read past the first line of your insane babble.

            3. Padraigin Eagle says

              screamjoebluepill: As reading is not you strong suit, best then that you stay on the safe space couch and relate to O’Brien why it is that you love to fellate Big Brother.

            4. dreamjoehill says

              Fq off bigot!

            5. Padraigin Eagle says

              Did it need to be so high: Sayeth the libreartarded bigot, hating on his president;, shame on you, safe space snowflake, and doth your mommy know that you’ve climbed up on the wall.

            6. dreamjoehill says

              Hey T-rumpsucker Not everyone who disagrees with you is a snowflake, but at this point, just about everyone still supporting T-rump is a bigot.

              Cheap insults and filthy right wing rhetoric is all you’ve got, T-rumpsucker. Intellectually speaking, you’re a lowlife.

            7. Padraigin Eagle says

              reamjoehill: As I said, Scamaposer is closer to the mark, but then the Mask of the Beast hast obviously caused your single brain cell to misfire to the extent that you’ve forgotten that the Certificate of Vaccination ID-AI simulation hoax is about to cause your (welcome) demise, so maybe best that you thank mommy for building the wall so high and then go and dig a hole and bid your miserable life goodbye. How about it, cremepuff.

            8. dreamjoehill says

              You really are a miserable piece of shit.

              Go do some more T-rumpsucking. It’ll make you feel better.

              You can scream, “I love you Donald. I’m an excellent T-rumpsucker and I love it.”

            9. Padraigin Eagle says

              screamjoeshill: And here’s another, “You need to show proof of Maduro’s larceny or STFU”, the whiny little twat making a fool of itself, way out of its depth, but then what should we expect from a poofter snowflake safe space wanker. Exactly

    2. Rog says

      “Confirmed cases?” Confirmed by what? A test that does not detect the presence of a virus but only genetic material presumed to be associated with it from past faulty testing and an up to 80% false positive rate? Yeah, that’s the ticket!

      1. dreamjoehill says

        80% false positive? I don’t think so.

        1. Padraigin Eagle says

          It’s a hoax. Please wake-up.

          1. dreamjoehill says

            Sure, I should believe COVId-19 is hoax because some right wing jackass on the internet says so.


            1. Padraigin Eagle says

              schemejoemoer (look it up): Try this for size, mental midget, and when you come up for air, let’s see if you’re able to demonstrate some degree of lucidity as opposed to your standard fare stupidity. And best to dispense with the right, wing, left wing, chicken wing line, unless you prefer to be seen as ‘his master’s voice’ lackey.

              https://www. youtube. com/watch?v=1Z5VYqJqrt I’ll The Global Prepardness Monitoring Board Certificate of Vaccination ID-AI simulation documented in plain sight, 36 minutes and 40 seconds in, a heads-up for the slow thinkers and readers; ring any bells dreamjoehill.

            2. dreamjoehill says

              In my experience people opposed to the right/left distinction are rightists.

              Because you are also a rude bastard, I won’t be watching your vid.

            3. Padraigin Eagle says

              In the experience of a half-wit since birth. Uhu, I thought as much, those safe-space nappies obviously constraining your ability to discern the truth; but then libreartards (sic) are well-known to be whiny retards.

            4. dreamjoehill says

              Fq off T-rumpsucker!

            5. Padraigin Eagle says

              Try Scamaposer and you’d be closer to the target; and don’t forget that Billary and Pedo Biden love the p00fters, aka dreamjoehill.

            6. dreamjoehill says

              You bigoted right wing pieces of shit are so predictable.

            7. Padraigin Eagle says

              So predicktable: Sayeth the bigoted libretard, straight up Obummer’s ring piece, followed by husband Michael, but then tranny threesomes are no doubt your left wing, right wing, chicken wing go-to position.

            8. dreamjoehill says

              Like I said, predictable. Predictably sleazy, predictably bigoted, predictably hateful.

              You’ve got all the right wing scumbag bases covered!

            9. dreamjoehill says

              Your comments are insane.

              Eat ass and die.

            10. Padraigin Eagle says

              The meltbrown: Ah, tail gunner cremejoehill, melting down ’cause his libretarded boyfriend won’t provide him with any of the brown. Butt then there’s always that inflatable Ken doll, dreamjoepill.

            11. dreamjoehill says

              No meltdown, just an attack, jackass.

            12. Padraigin Eagle says

              No milfdown: When the penguin attacks, fear pervades the safe space, the marshmallows meltdown, and the snowflakes drown, teamjoumoer, a legend in his mommy’s basement.

            13. dreamjoehill says

              Hateful right wing cliches are all you’ve got.

              What a filthy pig, a disgrace to humanity. A real hemorrhoid.

  9. dreamjoehill says

    Over the last week, Sweden, with its experiment in herd immunity, racked up 6.08 deaths per million inhabitants, higher than the UK, USA and Italy.

    1. sabateur says

      people do die in sweden.

  10. Ave Milagrosa says

    This was a good piece from the Daily Mail, but it only underlines a fact that is more and more salient by the day: the virus is NOT pathogenic. A person who was positive but asymptomatic was exposed to 455 people, who were then tracked. Of the 455, NOT ONE was found to be infected. Read to believe:


  11. ke4ram says

    “governments had been spooked by ‘flawed scientific papers‘ into imposing lockdowns”

    Governments are never “spooked” into tyranny. This was a multi-agenda action to see which countries would oppose illegal lockdowns. Most of the Peoples passed the idiot test. You don’t have to be a PhD or MD to see the bs in anti-social distancing and wearing masks. Closing most businesses while leaving the majors open was stupid. Closing churches another useless act.

    Closing beaches where max sunlight was good for the body and kills viruses was another act of stupidity. Keeping 6 feet apart on a beach where the breezes blow is an act of insane stupidity.

    Closing businesses like barbershops, gyms,,, stopping elective surgeries … stupid. Categorizing transplants as elective surgeries,,, sending known sick people to nursing homes was not only stupid but murderous as well and the tyrants that did this need to be brought to justice.

    Millions out of work, many to go hungry and die of disease and starvation. The trillions of dollars conjured up out of thin air will destroy the money. Done while people were in lockdown and saying it was to help them was insulting. It’s over for the USA which is now just another 3rd world shithole printing money to save itself while really putting a nail in its coffin. Something it will soon find out.

    1. Wiley Coyote says

      Why didn’t New York State Governor Andrew Cuomo simply take a few thousand elderly people and shoot them in the head. It would have had the exact same effect as his stupid executive order forcing already infected elderly into the nursing homes.

    2. sabateur says

      ireland sure did. the whole country reacted like a well trained dog.

    3. Mensch59 says

      sending known sick people to nursing homes was not only stupid but murderous as well

      When will the fascistic lockdown fanatics EVER acknowledge this fact? But it’s those of us who oppose anti-social physical distancing and totalitarian lockdown who are “sociopathic”. I wish that there were more descriptive words than “insane” and “evil” to depict totalitarians & apologists for totalitarians.

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