It’s Game Over and the Swedish-Belarusian Herd Immunity Model Has Won

One third of Stockholmers have already had Covid-19, shook it off, and are now immune

Great comment on the story by Jon Hellevig:

Game over. The Swedish-Belarussian model has won. Herd immunity is the way to go. Study and random testing shows that 600,000 or one-third of Stockholm county’s population have had the corona infection.

They had no symptoms or so little they did not even know they had it. Some 1,500 died, mortality 0.25%. In tough competition, the seasonal flu is still leading. 0.25% is share of those infected, the mortality to the whole population would be 0.015%, which would make the seasonal flu win hands down.

Hope when Putin hears about this today he orders Mayor Sobyanin to tear down his cybergulag, as fun as he might have in experimenting in hype technology and people’s lives.

Today, the Public Health Authority presented a new study that estimates that one third of everyone in Stockholm County will be infected with sars-cov-2 on May 1st this year. There will be about 600,000 people.

Many unconfirmed cases

The study is a mathematical modeling of the spread of the virus in Stockholm County. It is based partly on the so-called Stockholm study that was conducted a few weeks ago when randomly tested 700 Stockholmers and partly the new infected cases that are reported daily.

– What is surprising is that there are so many cases, 99 percent of all cases, that are completely unconfirmed, says Lisa Brouwers, head of analysis at the Public Health Authority.

Unknown number of infected other Sweden

The Public Health Authority study comes to the same results as the mathematician Tom Britton’s calculations. This weekend he presented a study which also indicates that 30 percent of the population in Stockholm has had covid-19.

What it looks like in the rest of Sweden there are no calculations yet, but the high proportion of infected in Stockholm differs from the rest of the world.

“Preliminary data indicates that only a small proportion of the world’s population has become infected, no more than two to three percent,” WHO Director General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said at a press conference yesterday Monday.

Get in France

Yesterday, French Institute Pasteur also presented a study that calculates that six percent of French people will have been infected on May 11 this year.

The low numbers do not surprise the infection protection expert Johan Giesecke.

– Most countries have had a lockdown, they have not had distribution in their countries in the same way as Sweden. We have had a spread of infection in the population, he says.


But there may also be dark figures in the international calculations.

– The data presented internationally may have been measured in different ways, either you have only measured antibodies or you have only counted those cared for in hospitals. We have tried to estimate the entire spread, says Anders Wallensten, Deputy State Epidemiologist at the Public Health Authority.

Source: SVT Nyhelter

  1. Vince says

    Through research. Dr Judy Mikovits who has worked with Ebola (very closely) HIV and many more has video interviews online telling the truth on Covid 19, which is actually Sars Cov2, and why tests are coming back with false positives, negatives…Virtually everyone is carrying a version of the corona virus which is why the numbers seem staggering, most people that actually get “Covid 19” have little to no symptoms, unless of underlying conditions, especially in elderly. Hope this helps a little bit

  2. TheDeagelForum says

    I wonder what Anna Lindh would have made of all this.

  3. leon coetzee says

    Extrapolating from a small sample size is easy

    If this virus is essentially killing less than the flu

    Should it not be the case that no icu bed shortage should be the case
    In other countries

    If you happen to roll the dice and test group included hotspot

    Your extrapolation means nothing

    Anybody with a brain can see the flaw

    And if they can’t how can we trust that they are indeed in possession of a brain

    1. kathydopp says

      Ieon, I don’t know what country you’re from, but in the United States there are currently no shortage of ICU beds to my knowledge. They built out a bunch of extra hospitals that have virtually no one in them now. Where do you live? Spain and Italy are reported to still have severe problems. Is that where you’re from? I have heard most people in Sweden were trying to carefully limit exposure to the elderly, and at risk persons, but that Sweden also may have higher per capita hospital capacity than many countries.

      The SARS-COV-2 virus might be much more easily transmissible than the normal flu viruses too, so the increased percentages of the population getting it may account for the differences you see. It’s hard to know because normal flu deaths do seem to be under-reported or not occurring much since the Covid-19 pandemic spread.

      By sending all the college students home to their parents here in the United States, they may have exacerbated the outbreak here for a while by taking asymptomatic cases and spreading it to parents and grandparents. Unfortunately, given the pandemic, United States laws prohibit discrimination of people who have illnesses, so, perhaps they couldn’t just send the at-risk persons home from schools and businesses when they first responded to the pandemic. I believe that’s what Sweden tried to do — isolate only the at-risk persons, which makes a LOT more sense.

  4. Synickel says

    Ah, but the media just yesterday claimed that covid-19 deaths were suddenly exploding in Sweden, proving that the herd immunity theory was wrong. Truth will never get out to the masses as long a mainstream media is allowed to control news.

    1. kathydopp says

      Snynickel, Perhaps the media neglected to tell you that the Swedish death rate cannot be simply compared to that of other countries like the US because in Sweden the denominator is not being inflated by anyone testing positive for the virus using highly sensitive tests. The denominator of reported cases in Sweden is counted only as cases presenting with serious symptoms. When you inflate the denominator, as in countries like the US where anyone testing positive for the virus is counted as a case, it makes your death rate appear to be smaller; and the way Sweden counts cases makes their death rate seem larger due to a smaller denominator of “cases”.

      Currently, (after correcting my SS formula) I learned Sweden’s death rate is about 72% higher (0.200 per 1/1000th of total population compared to U.S. 0.1444 per 1/1000th of total population). However, unless the United States keeps its high risk population and their caretakers/co-residents sequestered when it stops distancing, the U.S. rate may eventually exceed Sweden’s).

      However an estimated fully 1/3rd of people in Sweden have tested positive for SARS-COV-2 antibodies, so are likely to have developed immunity to Covid-19; whereas, in one county in California, USA, less than 5% have developed anti-bodies. Hence the relative death rates in those two countries seem likely to reverse order.

    2. kathydopp says

      Well that media may have neglected to mention is that Sweden uses only people presenting with active Covid-19 symptoms as cases, rather than anyone who has been exposed to the virus, whereas other nations, like the United States, use an inflated denominator to reduce their death rate by counting *anyone* that has any SARS-COV-2 virus in their system as a case. Thus, the two statistics are not comparable.

  5. arnieus says

    But but but Bill Gates and the “Center for Disease Control Prevention” can’t patent herd immunity.

    1. kathydopp says

      Well Bill and Melinda Gates funded a human trial giving double the dosage of hydroxychloroquine as it takes to cure an active Covid-19 early stage case to people who did NOT have Covid-19 or the virus — because giving them a double dosage will make it look like hydroxychloroquine has too many side effects to use to treat Covid-19 cases!

      And Dr. Fauci was an active funder of the Wuhan lab that created the pandemic origin because he wanted to use a coronavirus with some HIV RNA to try to create another dangerous vaccine. Congratulations Dr. Fauci! Maybe everyone who gets Covid-19 and lives to tell about it will be immune to HIV!

      Dr. Fauci is also making sure the U.S. health agencies announce that hydroxychloroquine can cause heart problems, but hydroxychloroquine is a 70 year old drug and has always been contraindicated for any long-term use by heart patients or in conjunction with certain heart medications. This is just Dr. Fauci’s way of making sure that Covid-19 is not treated in the early stages where it is known how to effectively treat the virus and prevent hospitalizations. Why is Dr. Fauci trying to falsely convince people that hydroxychloroquine may not be used for any COVID-19 cases? For instance, read the article: “Cocktail of Hydroxychloroquine, Zinc Sulfate and Azithromycin are showing phenomenon results with 900 coronavirus patients treated” or read “Results from a Controlled Trial of Hydroxychloroquine for COVID-19” using google.

      1. arnieus says

        Lots of researchers don’t think HIV is the cause of aids. I don’t pretend to know but Fauci was involved and billions of dollars depended on that theory.
        Search Dr. Shiva.

        1. kathydopp says

          I don’t know either (re HIV and aids) but the Nobel laureate Dr. Montagnier who discovered the HIV virus thinks so and has sequenced the SARS-COV-2 virus and found it contains some part of the HIV virus and so is not a naturally occurring virus:

      2. arnieus says

        Great post. I would like to test an overdose of water on the bunch of them.

  6. I Love Libertarians says

    Sweden said it would stop tracking COVID and now it is? The information is confusing. Also Swedes and the far-left socialists in general have a reputation for gaming statistics.

    Belarus is a joke, a country that jails libertarian legislators for demanding transparency and free speech. Though I confess the dictator’s solution of drinking plenty of vodka has a certain ring.

  7. Persephone Smith says

    It won’t be necessary. The year to year death rate in America is slightly below last year. As plagues go, the Corona virus is pathetic.

    1. jbwilson24 says

      Damn right. This is the most overblown, underwhelming plague in history.

      The sad part is that the idiots in charge, like that goblin Fauci, will claim that it was the lockdown that stopped it from killing millions. Total crap.

      Someone should hang over the damage done to the lower and middle classes.

  8. Tim Bennett says

    700 actual tests are extrapolated through “models” for a population of 10 million? Is that what passes for science in the world today?

    1. jbwilson24 says

      There’s a science called statistics that deals with sampling and all the rest. There are many ways to fudge studies like this, ranging from poor experiment design and faulty model choice (to, of course, outright fraud).

      However, the idea of taking a small sample and extrapolating to a population is hardly novel. How do you think quality control engineers estimate part reliability? Do you think teams of people manually test tens of millions of diodes?


    2. Joe Schembrie says

      Yes, it’s called a statistical sample. It’s passed for science for centuries now.

      1. I Love Libertarians says

        No, it’s called a lousy sample. Lousy samples pass for statistics now.

  9. Mark Belk says

    Liberty should be the main concern, not communistic and tyrannical destructuction of unalienable rights. The people must resist and understand that Liberty is dangerous and much preferred to safety by slavery.

  10. Stef says

    Sweden is famous for rigging stats(crime), plus they do very little testing compared to others (a third compared to Germany, about half of what Russia does, less than Belarus)

    1. jbwilson24 says

      Yes, they rig stats on crime. They rig the PISA tests to exclude their low IQ, dysfunctional migrants.

      You have zero evidence that this test was rigged. None. This is not political, unlike crime and education.

      Post your link to the data on Belarus and testing. Belarus is an extremely well run country, simply go visit and notice how well the infrastructure is maintained.

  11. Owen Neale says

    This story is full of bogus number and misleading statements.
    The official numbers indicate a 12.1% death rate among the infected.
    That certainly doesn’t sound like winning

    1. Undecider says

      By your assertion, there should be piles of dead bodies.. somewhere?

    2. jbwilson24 says

      If you have a problem with the study, critique the study. Otherwise, what is your source of data?

    3. Mark Belk says

      Liberty at any cost is winning!

  12. itchyvet says

    It is NOT over, until the Fat Lady sings. It will take at least two years for all the data to be gathered/studied before a final reckoning can be made.

    1. Jim Davies says

      Long, very long before the Fat Lady staggers to her feet and draws her breath, the world will have reverted to abject poverty. Urgent now to make intelligent predictions and take action.

    2. Mark Belk says

      No, the reckoning is obvious now! No amount of safety is worth one drop of Liberty!

      1. jbwilson24 says

        Destroying an economy to keep 80+ year olds alive is absolute madness. The elites are headed towards violent revolution at this rate. A researcher from King’s College just estimated that more people will die from cancer as a result of not being able to access screening services than will die from the WuFlu.

        1. kathydopp says

          Hey there is NO reason to subject any 80+ year old to Covid-19 AND there is NO reason to destroy or shut down an economy — That is just what Sweden is showing! The only people who should be isolated are the vulnerable group and their co-habitants and caretakers. The low risk persons should all be back to work but there needs to be out-patient EARLY treatment of early Covid-19 cases made, which is currently being withheld in much of the United States due to the policies of our Dr. Fauci who is doing what he can to prolong the outbreak until he can force everyone to conform to his dream of vaccinations for everyone.

          1. arnieus says

            Kathy, thanks for hitting this so hard so I don’t have to. It is not Fauci’s dream he is just a sales rep. I would never take a vaccine from Bill Gates just because his monopoly PC software was so bad. But if anyone needs more convincing just ask the thousands of crippled kids in India about his polio vaccine or thousands of sterilized African women. BTW the NYT is a bad source as on response mentioned.

        2. Jim Davies says

          WuFlu, that’s a neat name for it, thank you. I’ve been calling it the Wuhan Bug, but yours is better.

    3. Undecider says

      And then Sweden will be proven correct.

      1. Alan says

        SARS1 (this is SARS2) was supposed to have a fatality rate of 3.5 or so %, but turned out the WHO etc got it badly wrong.

        By the time they counted up all the dead, it was more like 10%.

        1. kathydopp says

          That depends on how you calculate the death rate, which is being overinflated in some countries by asking doctors to report any case that might have been due to SARS-COV-2 as if it is a Covid-19 death. Also often anyone having a trace of SARS-COV2 in their system due to really sensitive tests, even without Covid-19 symptoms may be counted as Covid-19 deaths due, in part to obtaining extra funding or supplies if you report high Covid-19 death numbers.

          I just entered the population numbers for each country into my spreadsheet of reported deaths, current on April 23 (I don’t update it every day) and the United States Covid-19 death rate is 24 times that of Sweden’s Covid-19 death rate out of the total population numbers (so is comparable)!

          1. Alan says

            Well we were expecting that, due to the high levels of obesity and diabetes in America, both of which are known to be significant in mortality with this disease.

            Regarding being urged or encouraged to write covid and “presumed” on the DC, that’s also expected during an epidemic. It allows the bigger picture and spread to be seen, without risking staff and wasting tests and PPE.

            We’re also finding this virus attacks the heart (so does the flu; not many people know that) and it also thickens the blood in many people. So heart attacks and strokes with C19 *should* be registered, or you could be missing a big part of that big picture.

            Where it goes horribly wrong is they are giving a financial incentive to report as a covid death, and yeah that’s likely to skew things.

            Having said all the above, I think it is too late for America. The virus is now obviously out of control, so containment is simply not possible now. Lockdowns no longer make sense – too late – so now it’s just mitigation. Wash your hands, wear a mask and go back to work.

            1. kathydopp says

              The high death rate in the US compared to Turkey and India is due to Dr. Fauci and our FDA trying to make it as difficult as possible for US doctors to treat early stage COVID cases with hydroxychloroquine/azithromycin/zinc .

              Association Of American Physicians Says ‘Trump-Touted’ Drug Has 90% Chance Of Helping COVID-19 Patients

            2. Alan says

              It is bizarre that politics is so involved in this

          2. Alan says

            I keep hearing that but is it not common sense to tell doctors to record it as a presumed C19 death during the middle of a world-wide pandemic? Should we risk lives, waste PPE and tests, just to test all the infected corpses? To detect the spread of the virus and get ahead of it we need to spot it, and yes, we SHOULD throw more money and resources at the areas with outbreak clusters, unless you want lockdowns forever?

        2. porgycorgy says

          Yes, though Sars 1 turned out to be much less efficient at infecting people than Sars 2 and was able to be dealt with.

  13. Michael L. Lee says

    The numbers quoted here do not match those reported in the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC). The 600,000 reported here compares to ~15,000 in the ECDC, hence the very low 0.25% mortality rate. The question is what is the source of the 600,000 infected number.

    1. itchyvet says

      The numbers are FUDGED. In my country, the only folks who get tested are the ones who have been overseas and then they ones they have been in contact with as well as the ones who are obviously ill.
      Anyone who has not fitted the above are ignored. We could have thousands running around carrying or recovering from this virus, but No One Is Aware of it. So much for the numbers.

      1. David Roman says

        Antibody testing.

        1. itchyvet says

          Couldn’t you read my post ?? I quote, “the only folks who get tested are the ones who have been overseas and then they ones they have been in contact with as well as the ones who are obviously ill.
          Anyone who has not fitted the above are ignored”.
          That still stands. Now we’re running out of this source, the infected folks who did fit the above, are become clear. They call it the SECOND phase. Regards the Antibody testing, our country only has enough such equipment to test the upper crust and chosen people, they rest are ignored.

      2. kathydopp says

        What country is your country? In the United States, they’ve done antibody testing for the SARS-COV-2 virus in a county or two in California and found, that due to the shelter in place orders, less than 5% of people have had Covid-19 and, thus, developed immunity. So Sweden is *way* ahead of the United States in developing sufficient herd immunity to release the high risk persons back into society.

        Also, in the United States, they are including anyone who has tested positive for the SARS-COV-2 virus, even the asymptomatic, in the number of cases to report the mortality rate. It’s not really possible yet to accurately compare those rates.

        1. Joseph Landers says

          the moment that you said developed immunity, your entire statement has become false. if the human body was building immunities to covid-19 we would already have a vaccine.

          1. kathydopp says

            Reading the work of biologists and virologists, because natural immunity is stronger and longer-lasting than vaccine immunity; and, a safe vaccine could take 5+ years to bring to market and many actual experts have warned that a vaccine for any coronavirus might be as dangerous as the disease. In fact the experts are saying that SARS-COV-2 is the result of a mishap when the Wuhan lab tried to develop a vaccine for HIV by placing some of the RNA of HIV in a coronavirus. Watch the youtube video I posted here by a Nobel prize winner in medicine.

            1. itchyvet says

              Seriously, Kathy, take a breathe and please re-read what you’ve posted. B.T.W. the lab at Wuhan is NOT a closed biological lab. That is the biggest furphy we are being spoon fed. No nation on this planet, allow the knowledge of such a facility to be common knowledge. Even the Chinese, who B.T.W. actually DO have such facilities, but they are very remote and not common knowledge, as most of these things are ILLEGAL as is the work being done there. You are of course aware the U.S. has similar labs within the U.S. and in secret ( no longer secret) locations. You need to do some more research on these issues.
              Try this for starters,

            2. kathydopp says

              Both the US and Chinese military were still working together in Fall 2019 and held Military games together in the Wuhan area. You can read about the games in official US military sources and you can read about how Obama tried to end the cooperative research with the Wuhan lab in the NY Times when Obama was in office that Fauci managed to continue funding without direct federal monies. Use google to read official sites of the military, government, and sites posted re. ongoing human trials and writings by actual biologists and virologists who think a vaccine against a coronavirus would be too dangerous, and business sites that recommend against investing in a vaccination for coronavirus as being at least 5+ years out and likely to be unsuccessful. I am not a biologist, but I have have taken Ph.D. level courses in mathematics and biology departments and I am a mathematician with an MS degree. I am skeptical and find credible sites to get information from. I’ll bet you haven’t watched the video interview of the famous Nobel prize winner in Medicine I posted below.

            3. kathydopp says

              I never said the Wuhan area research lab is closed. To my knowledge it is still open and still doing its research, but hopefully not its coronavirus research any longer. You obtain your information from an unreliable web site (truthtopowernews).

          2. kathydopp says

            Really?! You want to explain that logic? Natural immunity from having had any disease is known to be stronger and last longer than vaccine immunity.

            From Brian Shilhavy, Editor, Health Impact News The pharmaceutical trade publication, Fierce Pharma, a publication targeting investors in pharmaceutical products, such as vaccines.

  14. Hail says

    Sweden validated. End the lockdowns now.

    (See: “Just the Flu Vindicated.”)

    1. kathydopp says

      Here’s a great video by 2 doctors on the front lines in California who patiently explain to a fearful press why ending the lockdown now in the United States is the best approach:

      1. Hail says

        It’s been deleted!

        It had almost 5 million views and was hosted by a local TV station. The suppression has ramped up.

        (See here On the deletion of the 5-million-view “Dr. Erickson COVID19 Briefing”.)

      2. Skoolafish says

        Another copy

        Vanessa Beeley brings us Dr Dan Erickson and Dr Artin Massihi, Emergency Physicians from Accelerated Urgent Care (AUC) in Bakersfield, CA.
        Part 1

        (I think they are WAY too diplomatic re Fauci

        Part 2 with a great punchy concluding two minutes

        1. Mario Hernandez says

          Deleted too, they aren’t taking any chances with their little plandemic huh?

          1. Skoolafish says
            1. Mario Hernandez says

              Thanks man

      3. arnieus says

        Youtube deleted of course. It is on Bitchute.

  15. Andre Hoffmann says

    how can this be validated?

    1. BabyJysus says Why would anyone trust U.S. mainstream media after 9/11.
      This is sabotage of our economy and liberty; deliberate.

    2. Per says

      by testing a whole lot of asymptomatic/healthy people not just hospitalized seriously ill people, in a perfect world that would mean everyone. Since we do not live in a perfect world i would settle for a few million tests in Norway where i live (ca 25-30% of population)

    3. Natural_Texan says

      It will be especially hard in the west to validate it.. no open discussion on the merits of herd immunity is allowed. Only on extravagant, draconian vaccination schemes.

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