Israeli Data Suggests Protection From Vaccines Drops Down to Nothing After Just 6 Months (Just 16% Benefit)

People vaccinated before late February are twice as likely to catch the coronavirus than other inoculated Israelis, according to new research.

“We looked at tens of thousands of people tested in the month of June, alongside data on how long had passed since their second shot, and found that those vaccinated early were more likely to test positive,” Dr. Yotam Shenhar, who headed the research, told The Times of Israel.

“This definitely reinforces the argument for giving a third vaccine dose to the elderly.”

The report, published by the healthcare provider Leumit, comes on the heels of other Israeli studies that suggest a decreasing vaccine effectiveness, partly as a result of the Delta variant and partly because of the passage of time. However, British data indicates the Israeli studies may be overstating the case.

Data released by the Health Ministry on Thursday suggested that people vaccinated in January were said to have just 16% protection against infection now, while in those vaccinated in April the effectiveness was at 75%

So given that we have 3 data points, for vaccine protection over time, we can model the following graph!

-95% efficiacy 14 days after 2nd dose
-75% efficiacy ~3 months
-16% efficiacy ~6 months

This suggests that at 7 months no protection would be left. pic.twitter.com/sb6iKh6WIl

— Ben Marten (@BenMarten) July 26, 2021

Also this would imply that boosters might be needed every 3-4 months, to keep efficacy above 50%.

— Ben Marten (@BenMarten) July 26, 2021

The Leumit study looked only at the apparent waning of protection over time, and divided the vaccinated population into two based on inoculation dates, comparing early vaccinators to late vaccinators.

Shenhar, head of Leumit’s labs, acknowledged that the early vaccinators group includes many people who raced to get shots because they have underlying illnesses, which may make them more vulnerable to infection. But he said that could not fully account for the stark effect seen in the data.

Shenhar said the data should prompt the government to seriously consider booster shots for over-70s.

“Now we see vaccination effectiveness drops, so it seems we definitely need to think about a third vaccine,” he said. “We have started already by giving the immunocompromised, but in my assessment we need to consider giving third shots to everyone over 70 or 80. We shouldn’t wait long; we need to make a decision fast.”

If he were formulating policy, Shenhar said, he would “definitely” start giving boosters to elderly Israelis.

In his study, the apparent waning effect in immunity was felt across all ages. For all age groups, early vaccinators were 1.95 times more likely to be confirmed coronavirus positive. Among those aged 60-plus, early vaccinators are twice as likely to get infected. For those aged 40-59 early vaccinators are 2.1 times more vulnerable, and among under 39s they are 1.6 more likely to catch the coronavirus.

“In a previous analysis we showed that as time passes since the vaccine, the level of antibodies drops at a rate of about 40% per month. This new study builds a clearer picture of the effect seen in the months after vaccination,” said Shenhar.

Israel has seen a dramatic rise in recent COVID-19 infections, with the daily caseload rising from several dozen to over 1,400 in recent days.

Source: The Times of Israel