Iran Gave Advance Notice of Missile Attacks on US Iraq Bases

Iran wanted to show what it could do, but was fine with not killing anyone

Iran told Iraq which told the US

US officials have confirmed that they were given advance notice Tuesday night before Iranian missile strikes against bases hosting US troops, part of what is seen as a concerted effort to avoid casualties.

Iranian FM Javad Zarif said the advance notice was provided to the Iraqi government, citing respect for Iraqi sovereignty. Iraq told the US, giving time to get people out of the way of the attack.

In addition, there are reports that the Iranians were directly communicating with the US through multiple sources, including the Swiss Embassy in Iran, to assure them that the attacks were the extent of their retaliation and that they are done.

President Trump confirmed that Iran is “standing down” after the attack, though his comments were mostly boilerplate about the Iran nuclear deal, and he accused President Obama of providing the funds Iran used to buy the missiles fired on Tuesday.

Trump and Zarif had both pointed to deescalation on Tuesday night in Tweets, with the takeaway that Iran considered what they did proportionate, and that the US could live with that since there were no casualties.

Other analysts suggested that some Iranian missiles were deliberate duds “designed to miss,” giving Iran a chance to play up the attack domestically, in reaction to calls for revenge after the death of Qassem Soleimani, without doing anything so serious that it would escalate the fight any further. This was supported by photos of unexploded ballistic missiles inside Iraq.

This restored some Iran deterrent capability, and provided the US with an off-ramp to avoid further tit-for-tat escalation. It seems the US is taking that, even if Trump is calling for more NATO involvement and more sanctions. That rhetoric returns the US to mostly an ex ante state, however, and so the US can also be said to be standing down, even if it is in Trump’s usual, bellicose manner.


  1. thomas malthaus says

    Supposedly Trump is offering Iran an olive branch while committing to sanctions.
    I doubt the 10,000 troops he sent to Afghanistan and Iraq last week are coming home anytime soon. That’s not negotiable.

    After killing Solemaini, the Americans believe they’re negotiating from a position of strength while laying out a faux hand toward peace.

    1. Mary E says

      Of course, we know that trump is wrong….such a dummy! He, in his totally insane mind, believes that he is now the strongman of the world…..just wait!

      1. thomas malthaus says

        Unfortunately, we have to.

  2. Mary E says

    Iran is NOT done with the US by any means! They do not truly believe that they have
    done’ proportionate’ damage to the US….they will get trump where and when he is not expecting it….no more heads up . Interesting that the US response was shock and headlines in the media to the Iran attack! The US military was totally prepared and pretended to the people that it was unexpected…what a bunch of liars..

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