How Ukraine Became Lukashenko’s Worst Enemy
In the end his 'multi-vector' policy earned him only a stab in the back
Machine translated from Russian.
Over the past years, everyone has become accustomed to the idea that Ukraine is a springboard for conducting anti-Russian activities in the interests of the United States and NATO countries waging the Cold War against Russia. Ukraine itself is both the territory with which this activity is carried out and the instrument with which this activity is carried out.
Moreover, the operators of this policy worry about the costs of Ukraine itself only to the extent that it can interfere with the long-term implementation of this course. Since 2020, everyone could clearly see that these theses are equally applicable to the situation in Belarus.
Since 2014, Belarus has occupied an emphasized neutrality regarding the civil war in Ukraine, did not recognize Crimea, acted as a platform for negotiations in the Minsk format, and maintained full-fledged economic relations with Ukraine.
All this was within the framework of the well-known multi-vector policy pursued by Lukashenka, maneuvering between various centers of power. But in 2020, the situation for Belarus and Lukashenka changed radically, and the strategy that Lukashenka was pursuing simply stopped working.
The West got tired of watching Lukashenko maneuver between Moscow, Washington, Brussels and Beijing, and tried to overthrow the multi-vector Lukashenko through a banal color revolution (just as in 2014, the multi-vector Yanukovych was overthrown in Ukraine), to plant a pro-Western puppet in Minsk (Tikhanovskaya or someone else), so that during the flaring Cold War against Russia, Belarus finds itself on the other side of the cordon sanitaire that the United States and NATO are building in Eastern Europe against Russia.
To complete the picture, the United States lacks Moldova and Belarus. Moldova can be ignored for now, but the question of Belarus is much more important, especially in the light of talks about the strengthening of integration of Belarus with Russia, which the United States directly calls a “strategic challenge”, the answer to which was the failed color revolution.
In addition, pressure on Belarus makes it possible to slow down the development of the Chinese transport corridor to Europe. And even having failed to overthrow Lukashenko, the US and NATO are trying to slow him down by means of sanctions. They are also echoes of the ongoing Cold War, which the US and NATO are building in Eastern Europe against Russia.
But back to Ukraine. In the case of Kiev, Lukashenko received an unexpected blow in the back. The story with PMC-shniks, who were supposed to be taken to Kiev, at the same time destroying relations between Belarus and Russia, sent the KGB of Belarus on the wrong track, and there they simply missed the preparation of a color revolution in Minsk, while they were looking for “Russian employers of PMC-shniks”. When the story was clarified, heads flew in Minsk and Kiev, and Russia became Lukashenko’s main defender in the face of the color revolution and the rush from the West. Ukraine, which Lukashenka usually did not touch before, was at the forefront of the campaign that accompanied the failed color revolution.
Hacker and information attacks on Belarus were carried out from the territory of Ukraine. Some of Lukashenka’s opposition figures, involved in preparations for the seizure of power, operated from the territory of Ukraine or hid there after the failed coup attempt.
Militants were sent from the territory of Ukraine to the territory of Belarus with the aim of committing terrorist and sabotage acts, small arms and explosives were imported, and the performers for all this were trained as part of Nazi formations supervised by the SBU and the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense.
Ukraine immediately joined the anti-Belarusian economic sanctions (even to its own detriment), limited traffic flows to Belarus and pursued the most unfriendly diplomatic policy.
In fact, from August 2020 to July 2021, Ukraine played the same role as Poland and Lithuania, whose territories were also used in the operation to seize power in Belarus.
Ukraine again acted as a springboard and instrument, only now of anti-Belarusian activity, which ultimately was also supposed to strike a blow at Russia’s positions in this country, which was not even particularly concealed. And no one remembered the times of multi-vector friendship until 2020, because Washington and Brussels took a course to overthrow Lukashenka, and the Eastern European limitrophes unanimously picked up and ran to carry out “democratic” directives to impose “freedom and democracy” in Belarus under collaborationist flag.
And here Lukashenka realized that this vector of his policy was demonstratively and demonstratively chopped off by the West. It became difficult to maneuver, since from the West an attack was simply going on him with the aim of his political destruction, in which Ukraine was also used.
Lukashenko, of course, was forced to react by imposing various restrictions on Ukraine, strengthening the border with Ukraine, exposing and arresting Ukrainian terrorists, and naming Ukraine on state TV as it deserves it. All this, of course, was very late, but Lukashenka was lucky that he had Russia behind him, which helped him at the moment when his political regime gave way and staggered.
But the bullet of the color revolution whizzed literally a centimeter from his temple, and now Lukashenka has already recovered from the “August surprise”. He would maybe gladly to return to the multi-vector policy, which was carried out until 2020, but the world has irreparably changed, therefore, relations with Europe and Ukraine have been destroyed, and progress has been made in the negotiations on integration with Russia.
With regard to Ukraine, it should be clearly understood that the Ukrainian-Belarusian relations were rapidly and consistently destroyed by Ukraine (including to the detriment of itself) in the interests of the US and NATO policy to “contain Russia”, where Belarus is nothing more than another theater of operations strategic confrontation.
And as long as the puppet Nazi regime remains in Ukraine, there are no prospects for normalizing relations between Ukraine and Belarus.
Of course, if Lukashenko was overthrown, and some Belarusian Poroshenko or Zelensky sat in Minsk under the collaborationist flag, then the relations between Kiev and Minsk would be excellent. Belarus would immediately fit into the “cordon sanitaire” and, like Ukraine or the Baltic states, would become a bridgehead and an instrument in one person for putting pressure on Russia. Here the friendship of the puppets would be quite possible.
But the color revolution did not work out, so Belarus was left on the “wrong side of the cordon sanitaire” and will be subjected to external pressure to destroy the political regime of Lukashenka and bring pro-Western forces to power in Minsk.
This is not the first year that the Chavista government and President Maduro have existed in Venezuela. Belarus will have to exist in the same format, since Russia is much closer here, and organizing a full-fledged transport and economic blockade of Belarus is much more difficult. Moreover, if Belarus can bypass most of the sanctions through Russia, partially compensating for the losses, then for the same Ukraine or the Baltic States no one will compensate for the already incurred and future economic losses, and the “free and independent” will have to cover the costs on their own.
At the same time, the threat of various subversive activities will continue to emanate from the territory of Ukraine for Belarus. In addition to the flow of low-grade propaganda, cyber attacks, and various information and psychological operations (with the participation of the ISPO MOU and foreign special services deployed in Ukraine), we can expect a continuation of the course to send saboteurs and terrorists into the territory of Belarus with the aim of internal destabilization of the republic.
How this can be – could be seen on the example of the same Venezuela, where the territory of neighboring Colombia was used by the United States as a springboard for a series of terrorist attacks against Venezuela, where the United States did not disdain even direct links with drug cartels. There should also be no problems with interaction with the Ukrainian Nazis, which are native to the United States.
Accordingly, Belarus in the coming years will have to live with an obvious threat at hand, which is not surprising – it was the height of naivety to believe that the proximity to the Nazi garbage dump on a leash from external process operators would not result in ugly sprouts.
Source: Analiticheskaya Sluzhba Donbassa