Gleb Bazov Estimates 8500 KIA for the Russia-Led Side in the War so Far
Gleb Bazov estimates the Russia-led coalition has so far suffered around 8,500 killed and perhaps 26,000 wounded.
These are numbers remarkably similar to my own. I had 9,000 KIA as the most likely estimate last week.
Bazov uses the same method I do. He takes the official DPR figures as his starting point, then tries to figure out what they mean for LPR and Russian Federation (RF) losses.
One difference is that his estimate for LPR losses is higher than mine, and his estimate for RF lower, but the sums still end up in the same place. Bazov:
With respect to casualty numbers, the only reasonable way to go here is by way of extrapolation.
DNR: 1,925 KIA, 7,969 WIA
LNR: although the primary fighting is now taking place in the Lugansk area of responsibility, Mariupol evens out the score, so I would put them at about the same—2,000/8,000.
Russia: this one is more difficult. It would be easiest simply to double up the number of DNR, but given the last official numbers published by the Russian MOD, it does not quite work. I would conservatively estimate the losses at 4,500/10,000
Altogether then, we have an estimate of 8,500 KIA and 26,000 WIA for the Allied forces as a whole, for the whole campaign.
Many of you will disagree—putting losses as either lower or higher, depending on your viewpoint, but I will stick by my estimates.
Gleb Bazov was probably the single most valuable source of information from the ground in 2014 and remains a must-follow source in 2022. (Which isn’t to say everything reported is gold. Use your own common sense.)
If you are on Telegram you should subscribe to his Slavyangrad channel: https://t.me/Slavyangrad
His analysis is seldomly similar to my own, but I like Bazov because there is a kind of humanity to him that can not be detected in many of the Western weirdos who have latched onto the conflict.
As someone who hails from the conflict zone he appreciates the tragic side of the situation and stays clear of bloodlust, ethnic slurs, or salivating over terrible battlefield machines tearing up people closely related to him.
His estimate for Ukrainian military deaths is 55,000 to 60,000 and up to 100,000 WIA, which I don’t agree with but I share it here for completion’s sake, so that I’m not cherry-picking what I am sharing from him. I think if the Russians really were inflicting 20 thousand dead every month they wouldn’t be stuck taking a few villages per day if that. Time will tell who was correct.