Gleb Bazov Estimates 8500 KIA for the Russia-Led Side in the War so Far

Gleb Bazov estimates the Russia-led coalition has so far suffered around 8,500 killed and perhaps 26,000 wounded.

These are numbers remarkably similar to my own. I had 9,000 KIA as the most likely estimate last week.

Bazov uses the same method I do. He takes the official DPR figures as his starting point, then tries to figure out what they mean for LPR and Russian Federation (RF) losses.

One difference is that his estimate for LPR losses is higher than mine, and his estimate for RF lower, but the sums still end up in the same place. Bazov:

With respect to casualty numbers, the only reasonable way to go here is by way of extrapolation.

DNR: 1,925 KIA, 7,969 WIA

LNR: although the primary fighting is now taking place in the Lugansk area of responsibility, Mariupol evens out the score, so I would put them at about the same—2,000/8,000.

Russia: this one is more difficult. It would be easiest simply to double up the number of DNR, but given the last official numbers published by the Russian MOD, it does not quite work. I would conservatively estimate the losses at 4,500/10,000

Altogether then, we have an estimate of 8,500 KIA and 26,000 WIA for the Allied forces as a whole, for the whole campaign.

Many of you will disagree—putting losses as either lower or higher, depending on your viewpoint, but I will stick by my estimates.

Gleb Bazov was probably the single most valuable source of information from the ground in 2014 and remains a must-follow source in 2022. (Which isn’t to say everything reported is gold. Use your own common sense.)

If you are on Telegram you should subscribe to his Slavyangrad channel:

His analysis is seldomly similar to my own, but I like Bazov because there is a kind of humanity to him that can not be detected in many of the Western weirdos who have latched onto the conflict.

As someone who hails from the conflict zone he appreciates the tragic side of the situation and stays clear of bloodlust, ethnic slurs, or salivating over terrible battlefield machines tearing up people closely related to him.

His estimate for Ukrainian military deaths is 55,000 to 60,000 and up to 100,000 WIA, which I don’t agree with but I share it here for completion’s sake, so that I’m not cherry-picking what I am sharing from him. I think if the Russians really were inflicting 20 thousand dead every month they wouldn’t be stuck taking a few villages per day if that. Time will tell who was correct.

He puts the Ukrainian POW number at 10,000. I have only seen evidence for 4200. (The 2400 from the Azovstal surrender and the 1800 documented POWs before that.)

  1. TZVI says

    All in all acceptable losses in a true war.

    Before the “Special Operation” (WAR) I noted Russia would likely invade and should expect 25% loses in equipment ( esp. older T-72’s etc.) and manpower…we have not reached the conclusion of the war, and not yet up to those numbers.

    War is Hell…and sometimes there is even a Victor, sometimes everyone loses.

    1. Dianthus says

      This is NOT a true war! Wake the F up man bc under which rock do you live! If this was so, Putin was more serious and not this sloppy with crap warfare tech and sloppy warfare on the ground. fact.

      And then there is this

  2. GMC says

    Another heavy toll for soldiers and civilians might/will be going from Crimea to Odecca and then to Transnistria. 2015 was when the Russians should have jumped Ukraine but then most of us understand this – always easier looking back, in order to see the reality. I’m not sure how Russia will take revenge on the West but watching them fail isn’t good enough ……

  3. Wubble Gubble says

    Remember, numbers are rigged on both sides to keep morale up. This is merely another globohomo Zionist smokscreen all tied into their wef take-over of the world to satisy Talmudic promises.

    For me, these numbers are all meaningless, it’s not unlike surveys: If you ask the right people the right questions at the right time, you will get the right answers!

    1. TZVI says

      These numbers may well be close to correct, it is not coming from the Ukrainian Side…per say…is IS an Extrapolation from the reported numbers on the DPR forces, so one can never be 100% sure.

      The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense publishes all sorts of exaggerations, like Russia lost 2,000 tanks, etc. Then South China Morning Post ( etc.) Runs with it and states it as a fact.

      As for the Talmud, neither the Masons nor the secular Zionists follow the Talmud…in fact they do just about everything against the Torah and morality.

  4. YakovKedmi says

    ( How many Russian soldiers died in the wars against Chechnia ? has the government of Russia admitted it ?
    Valentina Melnikova says the bodies of the Russian soldiers were left where they died and not collected until weeks later, by which time animals chewed up the softer parts.)

    OK, 9000 Special Operation soldiers died in Ukraine. The problem is, only 1% of the dead are from Moscow; only 7% from Russia; the rest of the dead are from occupied territories.

    Noticeable but not surprising that no one is dying among the Kadyrov rent-a-killers, they are TikTok soldiers and palace-guards, they are not in the trenches.

    V.V. Putin just increased the pension payments —those old women, in no danger of war, will continue to cheer for him

  5. Traveller says

    Both Bazov’s and pro-empire’s estimates are widely off-mark, and frankly, amateurish.

    Given enormous advantage in firepower on Russia’s side, absolute air dominance and continuous pummeling of ukraine troop concentracions with long range precision weapons, (something which ukraine cannot do), the KIA ratio is at minimum 15:1 in Russia’s favor.

    That would mean that ukraine’s losses would be around 127.000 KIA by now, if we take Bazov’s grossly pumped-up estimate.

    Since the number of ukraine’s KIA is realistically around 42.000 by now, the number of Russian’s KIA is around 2.800 at maksimum.

    Still very high number, and yet unavoidable if you don’t wage war the western way, meaning by mass bombing of civilians and infrastructure. However, the ratio would drop to 85-1 or 90-1 , if fighting expands on territories of Nato vassal states, i.e. Poland or Romania, where Russia does not consider civilians as basically wayward Russians brothers, as in Ukraine. It would be completely different ballgame than, but lets hope it does not come to that.

  6. Ilya G Poimandres says

    The way I see bias, is constantly pushing one side.

    I get it – Putin and the General Staff certainly had too much hope Ukrainians west of the LOC, or somewhere near that, were less propagandised, and that the general military – rather than just the national battalions – were a little reasonable.

    I don’t get how you don’t see that Russia is fighting ISIS in Slav clothing. These are the same tactics – human shields specifically (the worst of tactics) – that mimic ISIS tactics. It is not a tactic even most aggressors accept.

    Progress is slow, and it costs lives? 50k-100k heavily armoured, and entrenched troops 10km away from major cities 10km East of line of contact..

    At least some acknowledgement that the slow grind is honourable.

    Otherwise it seems like you are against it.

    Are these acceptable losses? What is acceptable when someone else grabs a knife and starts swinging at you?!

    1. Danram says

      Your army is slowly being bled white. The Ukrainians are happy to give up small swathes of ground if it means a chance to kill more Russian soldiers and tanks. Your commanders are happy to oblige them. Soon Russia’s army will be exhausted and will be unable to conduct further offensive operations.

      The fact is that you didn’t plan for either an extended war against a determined, well-armed opponent or for the West’s response to your invasion of a peaceful neighbor who posed no threat to you at all and just wanted to be left alone. Now you’ve swallowed a porcupine and there’s no way out.

      Whether you choose to admit it to yourself or not, the fact is that Ukraine, with the west’s help, can replace its losses. Russia, with its economy under sanctions that ban the importation of needed components, simply can’t.

      In the end, you will be humiliated and ostracized from the world for quite some time to come while NATO expands right up to your doorstep. Ukraine will become a member of NATO soon, joining Finland and Sweden as new members. The process of converting Ukraine’s military to NATO equipment … markedly superior NATO equipment, by the way … has been sharply accelerated by your stupid war.

      Way to go!!!

  7. TRM says

    I look at the DPR numbers but use them as the highest percentage losses due to lack of training as you’ve covered. I guesstimate about 7k for Rus+ KIA and 15K WIA. They’ve only given up about 400 POWs (which the Red Cross can’t get access to).

    For the Ukrainian losses I’m at half his. 25k KIA & 50K WIA but his POW numbers seem way better than yours. 10k is very reasonable. In Mariupol alone about 4k (1100 at Illich, 2400 at Asovstal, 500 at the port) so I doubt your 4200 as it is almost all covered there. The Donbas has seen one day where 2000 surrendered plus daily dozens to hundreds so 10k seems about correct.

  8. SteveK9 says

    Soldiers dying is one thing, but this is really painful. From Readovka:… Is there really nothing that can be done quickly to stop this?

    For the third day in a row, there have been brutal bombings of Donbass cities. Yesterday in Stakhanov shelling killed two pregnant women, today in Makiivka she died five year old Mira . The video from the place of her death spread all over Telegram, adult men could not hold back their tears. It is impossible to get used to this even in 8 years. How many more children from Donbass will be killed? In addition to Mira, one civilian was killed and another man was wounded.

  9. estiben del mar says

    russian generals never cared for losses in equipment or men but for accomplishing the mission…

  10. Dale says

    Also seeing estimates of +50,000 KIA for Ukraine.

    1. Danram says

      LOL! Yeah, right …. On the Kremlin’s website, no doubt.

  11. Boris says

    I dont see this as being too far from the mark give or take a 1000 here or there. It pails into insignificance with 60K ukraine KIA absolute minimum, probably far more, lord knows how many injured missing and around 10K captured surrounded. Its war (or an SMO) If we round it off after taking Odessa and the south 10K would be acceptable. This is Russia fighting with one arm tied behind their back and not using the air power they have. That may yet materialise depending on what the Zelenskidiot does with his new toys. Ukies looking at 100,000 dead by years end, easily. Do you find that acceptable from a pointless war in support of nazism and oligarchic idiotic corruption fought because you weren’t bright enough to see you were getting screwed by the US and the UK (mostly)

  12. Danram says

    LOL!!! 8,500? The Russians has lost that many by the end of March! The real figure is probably between 25,000-30,000 men. I’ll grant you that the Ukrainians are probably being a little too rosy with their estimate of 31,000 dead Russians. But then again, they’ve been pretty accurate so far with their news releases.

    Regardless of the actual number, the fact that the Russians are conscripting men off the street in Luhansk and Donetsk, giving them a helmet and a Word War II-era bolt action rifle, and then sending them off to Sievrodonetsk shows that they are running out of infantry.

    When the new western MLRS and HIMARS systems are in place, they will force Russia to either move its heavy artillery back or watch as it is systematically destroyed. Deprived of artillery cover, Russia’s ramshackle infantry units on the front lines will quickly disintegrate when Ukraine counterattacks in earnest.

    By the end of August, every Russian will have been driven from Ukrainian land.

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