Free Florida and Health Gulag California End Up With Identical Case Rates, Hospitalizations and Deaths
Virus is gonna virus
- California Gov Gavin Newsom took a very strict approach during the coronavirus pandemic and closed bars and indoor dining, issued mask mandates and limited gathering
- By comparison, Florida Gov Ron DeSantis has issued very few closures and said he has trusted Floridian to ‘use common sense’ to control the spread of the virus
- Historically, when adjusting for population, Florida has had 8,306 cases and 117 deaths per 100,000 residents and California has had about 8,499 cases per 100,000 residents and 130 deaths per 100,000
- Currently, each states is recording between 200 and 400 cases per million people and between 10 and 20 deaths per million, showing a very similar curve over the last two months
- Hospitalization rates are also very similar with California reporting 24 hospitalizations per 100,000 while Florida has recorded about 22 per 100,000
In early March, California Gov Gavin Newsom limited gatherings, closed bars and indoor dining at restaurants, implemented mask mandates and implored residents to stay at home.
Comparatively, Florida Gov Ron DeSantis has enacted few measures, lifting an ordinance that prevented people from operating businesses and restaurants as well as lifting COVID-19 related fines and penalties in September.
Looser restrictions mean schools have not been shut down statewide and mask mandates have never been imposed.
In November, he even criticized states like California with harsher restrictions and said he trusted his residents to ‘use common sense.’
In an interview on Fox News Business on Sunday, DeSantis argued that Florida ‘focused on lifting people up’ during the pandemic but ‘lockdown states’ are ‘putting people out of business.’
‘There’s a whole bunch of things we’ve been doing for COVID, but at the same time, we’ve lifted our state up, we’ve saved our economy and I think we’re going to be first out of gate once we are able to put COVID behind the country,’ he told Sunday Morning Futures with Maria Bartiromo.
Despite these different approaches, both states ended up with roughly the same outcome. Aanalysis shows that, over the last two months, the states have each seen cases, deaths and hospitalizations fall by about one-third.
So were lockdowns necessary and did they work? The answer is a complicated one, but researchers say that they were beneficial in the early months due to our lack of knowledge about how COVID-19 spread and how to treat it.
Studies have shown that stay-at-home orders and restrictions saved numerous lives [yeah right], but that they might be less useful now as more of the population gains natural immunity through infection or immunity via vaccination – but that social distancing and masks are still necessary to continue driving down case and death rates.
When looking at raw numbers, California appears to be doing worse than Florida.
The Golden State has 3,399,878 total cases and 46,843 total deaths – both figures are the highest in the nation.
By comparison, Florida is reporting 1,827,373 total infections and 28,779 fatalities.
However, population size must be taken into consideration. California has about 40 million residents and Florida has about 22 million.
When adjusted for this metric, the states have very similar case rates.
According to The COVID Tracking Project, California and Florida are both reporting an average of between 200 cases and 400 cases per million people, and each have been seen declines over the last several days.
Both states followed a similar curve with a spike in cases around January 1 – as the winter surge led to rapidly rising rates of cases and deaths – with infections starting to tail off a few weeks later.
Dr Stuart Ray, a professor of medicine at Johns Hopkins, toldin a previous interview that Americans are currently seeing the effect of their good behavior, which is why curves and rates in states look so similar.
‘What we’re seeing in this epidemic is that it goes in cycles,’ he said.
‘When people are not careful, the virus infects lots of people, but we’ve seen multiple peaks dampen when people got serious.’
Deaths tells a similar story. Historically, Florida has recorded about 130 cases per 100,000 people and in comparison with 117 deaths per 100,000 in California.
Over the last 90 days, both states have been recording anywhere between 10 and 20 deaths per million people, COVID Tracking Project data shows.
Once more, their curves appear similar with fatalities spiking around mid-January, which were a few weeks behind the rise in cases due to deaths being a lagging indicator.
Ray said early on in the pandemic, there were relatively asynchronous peaks on the East Coast and West Coast.
It wasn’t a matter of whether states were or weren’t going to peak, just a matter of when, he explained.
‘We didn’t have a coherent message at the federal level so it was a whack-a-mole approach to control,’ Ray said.
‘What we’re seeing with this is when people are receiving different stimuli messaging rates of infection population stories that gain foot holds…then people get more careful.
‘It’s the motivator that convinces you to not go to that gathering or to wear your mask. News was a contributor to a message that people thought: “You know what? [Coronavirus] is a big deal.”‘
How do the states compare when it comes to COVID-19 hospitalizations?
The COVID Tracking Project, which has been recording hospitalizations in every state, does not have a figure for all hospitalizations ever reported in California while, in Florida, this data was not made publicly available until July.
At its peak on January 7, California reported a single-day total of 22,851 people hospitalized due to the virus while Florida reported 7,762 people on January 14.
When adjusted for 100,000, the states have a similar hospitalization rate.
About a month ago, California had a rate of about 56 hospitalizations per 100,000 while Florida had about 35 per 100,000. Now California’s rate is 24 hospitalizations per 100,000 while Florida’s is about 22 per 100,000, aanalysis found.
For example, in late July, Florida was reporting about 44 hospitalizations per 100,000 while California had about 22 per 100,000 before peaking again in late December and early January.
Worth noting when it comes to hospitalizations is age.
More than one-fifth, or 21 percent, of Florida’s population is at least 65 years old with at least 4.6 million out of the state’s 22 million identifying as senior citizens.
Comparatively, just 15 percent of California’s population is elderly with six million out of 40 million aged 65 and up.
This means more residents in Florida are susceptible to a virus that preys on the elderly.
Totally true, except for the fact that FL has the second-oldest population in America and CA has the fifth-youngest, FL's unemployment rate is 6.1 percent and CA's is 9.0, and FL is free and wonderful, and CA has become an authoritarian hellhole pic.twitter.com/bTCLO0OGZs
— Ben Shapiro (@benshapiro) February 16, 2021
Over the last few months, the two states have quite similar trajectories despite their different approaches with spikes in April for California and May for Florida, with another spike during the summer and in early January before declining.
Source: Daily Mail
Summary: nearly 100% of students in Florida have access to in-person learning (vs. California with just 5%) but the rate for COVID pediatric cases is HIGHER in California. pic.twitter.com/dz48jM3GL4
— Justin Hart (@justin_hart) February 16, 2021
In Sept 2020, @GovRonDeSantis held a public virtual roundtable with eminent Professors, incl Profs @MartinKulldorff, Bhattacharya et al. The very next day, he apologized to the People of Florida, lifted all lockdowns/restrictions & continues to govern with evidence-based policies https://t.co/eVhni3YxSr
— Kulvinder Kaur MD (@dockaurG) February 16, 2021
AZ/FL/TX/Los Angeles COVID Mortality: 2/16/21
This charts shows the daily Deaths Per Million for AZ, FL, TX, and Los Angeles. State of CA does not provide this data.
I've held back the curves 14 days due to the lagged nature of Date of Death curves.
Notice peak timing for each pic.twitter.com/xUs9UzolV9
— Hold2 (@Hold2LLC) February 16, 2021
Texas has had a statewide mask mandate since July 2nd, while Florida never mandated masks. They both peaked at exactly the same time over the Summer, but TX did much worse as soon as the fall surge started, even though FL limited mask enforcement
Really strange, don’t you think? pic.twitter.com/aHdN6uyfpj
— IM (@ianmSC) February 17, 2021
Well it’s been about 3 weeks since my last check on how mask mandate counties in Florida are doing compared to those with no mandate, and guess what?
No mandate counties continue to do better. Not just the same…better
Just like the last time I did this. And the time before. pic.twitter.com/8b0OFGR757
— IM (@ianmSC) February 15, 2021
Hey look at that, Arkansas, Oklahoma and Tennessee have similar climate zone breakdowns and have followed extremely similar curves despite totally different intervention strategies and mask usage
Probably just a coincidence! pic.twitter.com/FY0DXaB3O7
— IM (@ianmSC) February 13, 2021