Excellent Video for Background on the Ongoing Idlib Battle in Syria

A Syrian-Russian offensive vs "the largest Al-Qaeda safe haven since 9-11" in words of the US envoy to Anti-ISIS coalition

The offensive of Idlib. I’m going to address this video with as few maps as possible because the situation is changing in the north-west of Hama and southern Idlib every single moment. So, the map of control could change before I upload it on YouTube.

During the course of the war in Syria, wherever the Syrian Army launched a military offensive to liberate an area, the SAA leadership gave the militants the choice to surrender and join the reconciliation programme, which means the ex-militants could return to their civil life without legal repercussions. Or they leave to Idlib by the green buses.

After 8 years of war, Idlib has become a safe haven for criminals, thieves and terrorists or as Brett McGurk – the U.S. government’s Special Presidential Envoy for the Global Coalition to Counter ISIS – called Syria’s Idlib: “the largest Al Qaeda safe haven since 9/11 tied directly to Ayman al-Zawahiri [current leader of Al Qaeda].”

So, let’s agree on one thing, Idlib is not a haven for democratic rebels or opposition fighters as some mainstream media journalists claim.

In September 2018, Russia and Turkey agreed to create a demilitarized zone in Idlib to give a chance to Erdogan to solve this dangerous situation. The deal included that:

  • a demilitarized buffer zone will be created to separate the two sides, stretched from about 15 km to 25 km that will come into effect by 15 October.
  • Troops from Russia and Turkey will patrol the zone, and Jihadists must abandon the areas, and retreat further in the Idlib province.
  • “all tanks, Multiple Rocket Launch Systems, artillery and mortars belonging to conflicting parties will be withdrawn from the demilitarized zone by October 10.”
  • The M4 and M5 highways, are to be open by end of 2018, linking respectively Latakia and Damascus to Aleppo.

Of four important steps of the agreement, how successful was Turkey? In my estimation, Turkey didn’t fail to implement the agreement, because it had no intention from the first place to impose a deal that is in favour of the Syrian government. Ankara wants to strike certain deals with Damascus before cleaning Idlib from the terrorists, and President Assad won’t give Erdogan what he wants, which is a so-called safe zone in the north, that means a de facto occupation by Turkey of the areas occupied by the US-backed Kurdish forces.

Additionally, while the Syrian government accepted the demilitarized buffer zone deal in Idlib, the strongest terror groups in Idlib rejected the deal, such as the Turkistan Islamic Party (the Uyghurs from China), the Guardians of Religion Organization, Ansar al-Tawhid, Ansar al-Din Front, and Ansar al-Islam, Hay’et Tahrir al-Sham or Al-Qaeda.

These terrorist groups fired rockets and missiles on daily on the residential areas in the Syrian-Christian towns of Skeilbiyyeh and Mahardeh, on the coastal cities of Latakia and Tartous, and on Aleppo from its western suburbs.

Now, the Syrian Army launched a ground offensive on northwestern Hama and southern Idlib. So, let’s discuss together two important aspects of this battle:

The first one is: what kind of factions the Syrian army is fighting in Idlib and Hama? The vast majority of these groups are Islamist Salafist groups, their ultimate goal is to create an Islamic state based on the Wahabi and Muslim Brotherhood ideology.

The strongest force in Idlib is Hay’et Tahrir al-Sham or Al-Qaeda and their goal is an Islamic State. The number of fighters estimated between 12 to 30 thousand.

Aharar al-Sham is also a Salafi group that calls for an Islamic state. The number of fighters estimated between 18 to 20 thousand.

Jaish al-Izza which has been supplied with anti-tank missiles by the United States is also a Salafi group and an ally to Al-Qaeda. The number of fighters estimated between 2 to 3 thousand.

The Turkistan Islamic Party or the Uyghurs of China. The number of fighters estimated between 5 to 10 thousand.

The Tajiki, Saudi, Egyptian, Tunisian and terrorists from all over the world are estimated by hundreds.

In fact, no one can make a concrete estimation, but let’s agree on one thing: there are tens of thousands of Salafi Jihadists in Idlib that should be eliminated.

But how?

One thing worth to notice, the green buses offer is not on the table for Idlib terrorists. So, what options left?

  • Unconditional surrender and elimination of the multinational terrorists, which is an impossible scenario.
  • A limited fighting and big military pressure by the Syrian army that would force the local militants to surrender, join the reconciliation programme and distance themselves from Al-Qaeda and multinational jihadists. This example was adopted in Eastern Ghouta and Daraa and could be implemented in certain areas in Idlib.
  • Fighting till the end, which is a path that Al-Qaeda and multinational jihadists seem to take. If local fighters have a chance to save themselves, they will take it, but the radical elements in Idlib won’t have that chance.

In my estimation, the Syrian Army will divide the battle into different stages. In the first stage, the SAA will attack the terrorists on the demilitarized zone and capture it, then advance to Jisr al-Shighur al the way to Saraqib. Similarly, from Morek, to Maaret Numan until Saraqeb, in a bid to reopen the M4 and M5 highways and reconnect Aleppo to Damascus and to the coastal cities.

The other places, especially to the west of Idlib, after liberating the upper mentioned regions, the SAA can limit the presence of the terrorists in this area, near the borders with Turkey, a step that could pose a security threat to Turkey and force Ankara to negotiate on its withdrawal and occupation of Syrian territories in exchange to cleaning that area from the terrorists.

Geopolitics aside, if any sanity left among the local fighters, I hope they distance themselves from the terrorists and take the reconciliation option and return to their civil life, to spare bloodshed among all sides. But previous examples have proven to us that they don’t learn a lesson.

Source: Syriana Analysis

  1. JHK says

    When protests first started shots were fired in both directions and later asshead prohibited police from holding guns.

    This was his first mistake as a leader, not being able to ‘negotiate’, so there is no more negotiation because asshead police shot civilians.

    So kikenyahu, sisi the tyrant, binned salmon the market bomber in Yemen, and now asshead are know as the Middle East tyrant butchers.

    I dont know if you understand Islamic rules but its forbidden to ally with Russia against Muslims. Its a common and strict rule in any Islamic denomination. So yes, it was ok for asshead to run to Russia and ask for help against nato.

    But to use Russia against Muslims, is absolute apostacy. Theres no way around this before our Creator(swt) and gives every Muslim the Right to defend against asshead.

    1. Aen RaBeon says

      Not ok for your asshead to ask russia for help because russia is kuffar? but ok for your jihadists to receive arms, logistic and medical help from USA and israel? Come on.. Stop interpreting Islam as you see fit. You an Ulamak? Don’t you ask youself why jews in USA and israel are arming the jihadists? Is this war in Syria against assad with the current circumstances a true jihad? How so?

      1. JHK says

        Its possibly ok to run to kuffar in the event of persecution. But even so, Rebels (non former fsa) never ran to nato or kikerael, it was nato and kikerael that tried to infiltrate Muslim Brotherhood etc, and the result was kikesis.

        Ive even watched Iran interact in Afghanistan etc, but Im getting very technical here with asshead, because what he does affects Iran also.

        Im a supporter of Hezbollah and AlQaeda, and of all the battles going on, I see the battle of Idlib as bad news, even though people think its a first step to clearing up Syria, when Im saying its sectarian between Assadists vs Muslim Brotherhood, when Muslim Brotherhood used to be considered an Ally by Imam Khomeini(rh) and even by khamenei who respected its founder Seyed Qutb(rh).

        1. Aen RaBeon says

          You don’t like assad, you gp to the polls and contest against him. Umarmed. So Stop beating aroumd the bush and Answer the question, who arms the resistance, from rifles to aerial drones, mlrs, rpg tanks even new toyota hilux installed with AAAs, no matter which faction or all of them, agaimst syrian legitimate government? Those weapons simply dropped down from heaven?

          1. JHK says

            I dont hate Asshead, I just know that what hes doing in Idlib will backfire.

            I support Asshead and Russia with everything except fighting with Muslim Brotherhood.

            But yes in a way the weapons dropped down from Heaven because Rebels rely on their Creator(swt) only, as a rule. Plus Rebels are the strongest ground force in the world, and 100% of Rebel weapons were originally weapons that were used against them but that they confiscated. Its called Ganimah or spoils of war.

            Its well known that nato and Russia are the biggest arms dealers in the world, Russias Arms merely to prevent nato unilateralism. There was evidence nato was intentionally dropping supplies to kikesis, but with Rebels I mean specifically HTS Rebels in Idlib, who have a strict policy not to get caught up with zios or nato. This is a strict Muslim rule regardless of sect (Sunni Shia Sufi Alawi).

            There are exceptions like when Asshead ran to Russia, and got Russian weapons to fight kikerael oe nato. But as soon as Russia bombed Aleppo that was a breach of Islamic Law on Assheads part for allowing his alliance against Muslims.

            1. Aen RaBeon says

              Read back what you have written and see you contradicting yourself. I think you are a joo troll since flip flopping on non factuals are your trademarks.
              The Muslim Brotherhood is gone when AlSisi put the democratically elected Morsi in jail. Any brotherhood is syria warring against assad is an alliance of fighters or groups of fighters deceived by zionists entities into believing that their fight against assad is the ultimate jihad while at the same time oblivious to the fact that they are merely willing proxy foot soldiers that zionist jooish israel are arming and funding to fight their war to oust assad. Zionist jews are most afraid to die that’s why they prefer others do the fighting for them. Be it american soldiers or whoever stupid enough to buy their deception.
              Syria is one of the 7 states that Zionists targeted to destroy within 5 years of war after 9/11. Only Iran and Syria remain in that list. The rest are either already destroyed likr Iraq or a vassal like Saudi Arabia. Open your eyes wide and think outside the box tjat you’re in.
              Having said that, i see no reason to further any discussion.

            2. JHK says

              And when you talk about Syria and Iran, I was in Iran and I had Bros who were sons of diplomats of Syria, where they were told to take down their Syrian Flag. This was in 2009, and I took that flag to Basij and told them Syria is Irans Ally.

              I also was already supporting Russia and China back then, so its annoying to be accused of being a jew by some newbie.

              Im also Shia to boot, so I know what Im talking about.

              Let me know whatever else you dont understand, but dont talk down on me when you arent even Muslim.

            3. Aen RaBeon says

              Whoever ypu are or wherever you are or were os of no significance. Trump’s in USA but almost everything he does for now doesn’t benefit the average joemerican in any way. His policy only benefits Israel . Get the point? Mr Oldie?

            4. JHK says

              Im in japan and I dont distinguish between Chinese Japanese Korean or South East Asian.

              Like wise in americuck I dont distinguish between rednecks kikes kkk magas houseniggers phags or joes.

            5. JHK says

              Muslim Brotherhood is a Branch that even includes Shias like khamenei who translated the MB founders most famous works.

              It also includes Sheik Osama Bin Laden(rh), Erdogan, and even Ahmadinejad. Actually Boko Haram used to be peaceful and moderate like Muslim Brotherhood, but police got violent and MB in Nigeria rose up and took to arms. Unfortunately they sided with kikesis instead of AlQaeda and Taliban.

              Muslim Brotherhood is the primary target of zios, nato, and also ahlul saud and sisi, and AlQaeda is even more a target.

              But yes recently obomber cracked down as well as saudis and sisi and even Iran.

              MB is the primary Sunni Resistance most notably the Arab Spring.

              So you western cucks who dont know anything, dont do anything except lick icecream at jew corner stores, should just stfu.

              A jew is anyone who lives in america or europe, not someone like me. And jews are like phags and trannies. If you pick a fight with a phag online they will accuse you of being a phag, because they dont have any other means of debate (because theyre phags and kikes).

            6. Aen RaBeon says

              Oh really? You sure brand everything the joos dislike as the MB. It simplifies the justification for actions against MB doesn’t it.
              FYI Muslims aren’t allowed to wage war on nonMuslims unless they are attacked first or forcefully driven out of their homeland. Muslims aren’t allowed either to wage war on other Muslims, be it Shia or Sunni, for whatever the reason is, before a Musyawarah, based on what they have in common so as to compensate for the differences that leads to the possibility of war or other hostility towards each other.
              Talmudists jews are different, you simply want world domination don’t you. For you consider others as the lesser to a level at par with animals, created for the sole purpose of serving you Talmudists.

  2. roberto says

    Great video, Kevork!

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