Donetsk Republic Has Suffered 1635 KIA
5000 dead for the Russia-led coalition is realistic
By its own accounting, the Donetsk People’s Republic has suffered 1635 military deaths this year along with 6575 wounded.
Before the February general mobilization Donetsk had 20,000 men under arms. After the mobilization and roundups the number swelled but it’s difficult to know by how much.
If the 8210 casualties were concentrated in the 20,000 in the prewar force that would be quite consequential.
It’s interesting to note that Donetsk’s officially acknowledged casualties are now greater than those of Russia.
The last official Russian number is 1351 dead and 3825 wounded from March 25, after twenty-eight days of fighting and forty days ago.
Donetsk actually publicly updates its losses every week — transparency that is unheard of in Russia.
Russian dead by April 25 is actually at least 1744 and that’s a very significant undercount.
Russia has at least four times as many people involved in the war as Donetsk Republic. Circa 160,000 vs 40,000. Its losses then are also likely quite a bit higher than those of Donetsk.
Lugansk Republic has a somewhat smaller population than Donetsk, and a smaller military. Perhaps 14,000 before the war, but also swollen by mobilization. (To let’s say double that.)
If Donetsk has sustained 1635 military dead then around 1000 for Lugansk is realistic.
Russian war dead by now is well over 2000.
Coalition dead is then over 4500, likely over 5000 and that’s being conservative. (This still assumes Russia only suffered as many dead as the two mini Republics combined, which is quite possibly untenable.)
Together with the wounded that would make for 20,000 casualties sustained by a force of 230,000.
But primarily sustained by its frontline maneuver units numbering perhaps 80,000 for the Russians and 35,000 for the twin Donbass republics.
Many of the wounded will have returned to service but nonetheless you’re looking at a situation where up to 1 in 6 have been casualties. (20K casualties vs 115K frontliners.)
This is after 72 days of fighting.
It’s a constant refrain of this war on the Russian side that a lot is being asked of very few men.
A reminder on Donetsk conscription, by Russia’s Military Review (Voennoe Obozrenie):
…in the LPR they are massively conscripting and sending to the front line school teachers and university professors. And there they are captured, causing outright laughter from Ukrainian soldiers.
We were told: “There is no need to publish this, we will figure it out.” A month has passed, everything has remained as before. Teachers on the front line, killed, injured, captured. Because from a teacher to a good soldier is only in the movies.
But in the LPR, this suits everyone. For some reason, in Russia too.
Because Russia won’t mobilize (or even touch serving conscripts) there is that much more pressure (by Moscow) on Donetsk and Lugansk to supply the men — despite their far smaller populations and much more limited ability to train (or equip) them.