Coronavirus Mortality May Be as Low as 0.16%
Data from provinces where they're not as swamped and probably have better numbers indicates
Here are a few statistics on the coronavirus outbreak in China:
- Mortality rate in Wuhan was 4.9%.
- Mortality rate in the Hubei Province was 3.1%.
- Mortality rate nationwide was 2.1%.
- Fatality rate in other provinces is 0.16%.
Why would those who become infected in Wuhan be 30 times as likely to die as those who contract the virus but are outside Hubei?
That doesn’t make sense. You could argue that Wuhan hospitals are swamped and can not provide the same level of treatment and care, however, there isn’t a cure as such for the virus anyway beyond rest and taking your liquids, so there isn’t much difference the medical professionals, whether swamped or not, can do anyway. Certainly not enough to explain a 30x lower mortality outside Hubei.
The real explanation is that Wuhan is indeed swamped, but this does not so much result in a greater mortality rate, as it results in an artificially decreased number of confirmed cases of the disease.
Hospitals handle and test only the more severe cases (who are also the most likely to die of it), but unlike outside Hubei, tens of thousands of less severe cases (who are very unlikely to die) go untested and without monitoring by doctors.
In fact, a study for the Lancet medical journal estimated the real number of cases in Wuhan wasn’t 15,000, but 75,000 and that was 5 days ago.
The 4.9% mortality rate in Wuhan is indicative of mortality among only the more severe and therefore confirmed cases.
Mortality rates in other Chinese provinces that are not swamped and are able to examine, test and monitor everyone is a much better indication of how lethal the virus is.
At present, that number stands at 0.16%.