China’s Manufacturing PMI Collapse Shows How Far Beijing Went to Combat Covid-19
Dealt itself unfathomable short-term economic damage to stay on the safe side
Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMIs) are a tally of how executives see their own company – whether business activity at their company rose or fell compared to the prior month, whether new orders rose or fell, whether they added or shed staff, etc. Executives and their companies remain unnamed. A value above 50 means expansion; a value below 50 means contraction. PMIs are an early indication of business conditions – and by extension, of the economy.
And in China, both, the PMI for the non-manufacturing sector and the PMI for the manufacturing sector, released on March 1, have collapsed to unfathomable lows, showing to what extent the measures to impede the spread of the coronavirus have shut down the economy.
Even non-manufacturing activity collapses.
The official Non-Manufacturing PMI, released by the National Bureau of Statistics, collapsed from 54.1 in January (still well into expansion mode) to a previously unthinkable low of 29.6 in February. The horizontal gray line at 50 in the chart indicates stagnation. Below 50 means contraction. Since 2007, China’s non-manufacturing sector has grown every single month. Until February:
The non-manufacturing PMI is broader than just services. It also includes the retail sector and construction. Here are some other standouts:
- New orders plunged to 26.5, with export orders plunging to 26.8
- Employment, which had already been in contraction in January (48.6) dropped to 37.9
- Input prices fell to 49.3 (from 53.3)
- Output prices fell to 43.9.
- Confidence plunged from 59.6 in January to 40.0 in February.
Manufacturing collapses, but it’s worse than it looks.
The official China Manufacturing PMI, released by China’s National Bureau of Statistics, had already been either in the doldrums or in outright contraction for the past 14 months. In January it was at 50.0, the stagnation point. In February it collapsed to a previously unfathomable 35.7:
But it’s even worse than it looks, as the index was likely distorted to upside, due to the way a sub-index, “supplier delivery times,” is figured into the headline PMI, according to Lu Ting, chief China economist at Nomura Holdings in Hong Kong.
The headline PMI is based on a number of sub-indices. One of them is “supplier delivery times,” which accounts for 15% of the headline PMI. Normally, when supplier delivery times rise, it’s a sign of strengthening conditions in the manufacturing sector: there is a lot of demand, and suppliers are struggling to meet that demand. So longer delivery times add to the headline PMI index value.
But this time, the supplier delivery times rose because the transportation system was partially shut down, travel bans had been imposed, entire cities had been locked down, and many suppliers were shut down. With manufacturers’ supply chains cut to shreds, factories had trouble getting components and supplies.
According to Nomura’s report, if the supplier delivery times index hadn’t surged, but had remained at the same as in January, the headline PMI index would have dropped to 33.
And the sub-index for manufacturing exports orders collapsed to 28.7:
This plunge in the non-manufacturing PMI and the manufacturing PMI shows the mindboggling extent to which China’s economy has been disrupted by the coronavirus-containment methods in February.
ANZ banking group estimated, based on migration data of workers returning to the city from their villages, that about 50% of the workers had returned to their jobs as of this weekend, but that China’s economy was operating at only 20% capacity, hampered by issues ranging from lacking parts to other workers not having returned to work. But work resumptions are rising rapidly, ANZ said, and the March PMIs are expected to bounce off those catastrophic lows.
Source: Wolf Street
As shown in this article, central bankers may be using the coronavirus as an excuse to dramatically change the world’s monetary system:
https://viableopposition.blogspot.com/2020/03/covid-19-and-cashless-society.html
The current outbreak of COVID-19 could be just the excuse that they need to justify the massive change.
Here is something interesting on the matter from a very smart man.
I don’t embrace it, but it is quite plausible.
https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2020/03/05/who-made-coronavirus-was-it-us-israel-or-china-itself/
This PMI temporary decline shows Chinese leadership willingness to undergo economic distress and protect the population from a rampant pendemic.
RT Says Today…..
Сoronavirus may be a product of US ‘biological attack’ aimed at Iran & China, IRGC chief claims.
I read that article and what the man says certainly makes sense to me. There is NOBODY else that would have done this other then the one accused in this article. Nobody else other then these anglo kazar crew can get anything at all from releasing that bio-weapon. And that is exactly what this thing is. The kazars can not stop the BRI any other way. It is like just follow the money. Xi would never do this to his people. Only ones with this type of drive are the ones mentioned. Lets hope the Chineese do retaliate for this in a way that destroys completely usa and cohorts.
It is zionazi bioweapon! From the US or Is-Ra-Hell !
Certainly it is. Those are the only ones on earth that gain from it. They lost every other effort they ever tried. So stupid they can’t even land on the moon.
When you type the disgusting, revolting names type them this way. is-ra-OR usa. Using small letters is a one way to show your disgust for these nazi kazar scum you mentioned.
The world central banks are going to suck wind as a result of global recession. Black swans are not self inflicted. Most of the global kazars are supportive of globalization, hence that was the source of their billions without much effort.
California just declared a state of emergency because of the virus, Dow Jones is down almost 1000 points since California is the 5th largest economy in the world in terms of dollars.
The official Non-Manufacturing PMI, released by the National Bureau of Statistics, collapsed from 54.1 in January (still well into expansion mode) to a previously unthinkable low of 29.6 in February. The horizontal gray line at 50 in the chart indicates stagnation. Below 50 means contraction. Since 2007, China’s non-manufacturing sector has grown every single month. Until February:
The ripple effect is yet to hit America and as the virus becomes an American citizen, the American economy itself will be hit hard. By then China maybe on the road to recovery from the virus and may have to quarantine America.