China’s ‘Far East’ Is Emptying Out Faster Than Russia’s

So guess there'll be no yellow invasion of Siberia the neocons were hoping for

Results of the 2020 Census have been released. Some links:

Here’s a table of the regional change:

2020 2010 %
Beijing 21893095 19612368 0.12
Tianjin 13866009 12938224 0.07
Hebei 74610235 71854202 0.04
Shanxi 34915616 35712111 -0.02
Inner Mongolia 24049155 24706321 -0.03
Liaoning 42591407 43746323 -0.03
Jilin 24073453 27462297 -0.12
Heilongjiang 31850088 38312224 -0.17
Shanghai 24870895 23019148 0.08
Jiangsu 84748016 78659903 0.08
Zhejiang 64567588 54426891 0.19
Anhui 61027171 59500510 0.03
Fujian 41540086 36894216 0.13
Jiangxi 45188635 44567475 0.01
Shandong 101527453 95793065 0.06
Henan 99365519 94023567 0.06
Hubei 57752557 57237740 0.01
Hunan 66444864 65683722 0.01
Guangdong 126012510 104303132 0.21
Guangxi 50126804 46026629 0.09
Hainan 10081232 8671518 0.16
Chongqing 32054159 28846170 0.11
Sichuan 83674866 80418200 0.04
Guizhou 38562148 34746468 0.11
Yunnan 47209277 45966239 0.03
Tibet 3648100 3002166 0.22
Shaanxi 39528999 37327378 0.06
Gansu 25019831 25575254 -0.02
Qinghai 5923957 5626722 0.05
Ningxia 7202654 6301350 0.14
Xinjiang 25852345 21813334 0.19
CHINA 1411778724 1339724852 0.05

Key highlights:

Population has grown by 5.4% from 1.340B to 1.412B. Its population was 10M higher than projected, entirely due to Guangdong (which has 126M, not 115M). This is obviously a case of internal migrants not being tracked.

North-East China (Dongbei), as expected, is in the throes of severe depopulation. Heilongjiang, which borders Russia, falls from 38.2M in 2010 to 31.9M now. For comparison, this is a faster rate of decline than what the Russian Far East experienced in the 1990s. This is the region from where the neocons and East European Russophobes were telling you that the Chinese would mount their demographic takeover of Siberia from. Meanwhile, Jilin with 24.1M people now has fewer people than North Korea which is creeping up to 26M.

What seems to be happening is that the entire region, only really settled in 19C, is emptying out towards the sunnier south, especially Guangdong and the Pearl River Delta, in a reflection of what is happening in many other countries. On the bright side, I suppose, this suggests that the stagnation in wages and GDP per capita and the ultra-low fertility rates in Dongbei are somewhat exaggerated if the underlying population base has been bleeding out so rapidly.

NBS statistics head says number of births fell 18% to 12M in 2020, for a total TFR of 1.3 children per woman. China seems to be plummeting to South Korea-tier fertility with a time lag of 20 years. This probably doesn’t have much to do with coronavirus. After all, China only had a short but sharp lockdown which successfully suppressed the epidemic and has since been living in normality. Desired TFR is 1.8 children per woman, and realized TFR is usually at least 0.5 children less than desired, so a recovery in this indicator cannot be expected any time soon. Probably not for decades.

Urbanization rate is at 64%. This is relatively low for a country at China’s level of development and its future rise will be a further dampener on fertility.

So it seems pretty clear that China’s population is close to its all time peak and will start to decline in the early 2020s.

The average age of the population is 38.8 years. For the first time in modern history, it is higher than that in the US.

Source: The Unz Review

  1. Ronnie says

    Rather normal.

    1. Retiring oldies moving to where the children live.
    2. Better health care/warmer weather.
    3. More to do and see in retirement.
    4. Also 5G and home delivered noodles.

    Just like every other Western Country …….rural areas also don’t have many good paying jobs.
    Follow the money and services.
    Nothing to see here.
    BUT in America lots moving to the countryside. Discuss in 500 words or less.

  2. Jerry Hood says

    Chinese can beat up to death the degenerated lardy arses of USrael by their hats!!!

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