Children More Likely to Be Hit by Lightning Than Die of Coronavirus, Oxford-Cambridge Analysis Finds

"It’s not only a tiny risk, it’s a tiny proportion of the normal risk"

School children under the age of 15 are more likely to be hit by lightning than die from coronavirus, new figures suggest, amid mounting pressure for the government to get more to get pupils back into classrooms as quickly as possible.

Scientists from the universities of Cambridge and Oxford have called for “rational debate” based on the “tiny” risk to children and have suggested that it might be better for youngsters to be exposed to the virus early so they are protected in later life when the stakes are far higher, similarly to chicken pox.

It comes as the government was accused of “losing the plot” after Gavin Williamson, the Education Secretary, scrapped the Government’s target of getting all primary school pupils back in the classroom before the summer holidays.

He told the Commons that instead the Government would like to see schools who “have the capacity” bring back more pupils where possible before the summer break.

Plans to get students back into classrooms in September were also thrown into further doubt after Downing Street said that secondary schools were expected to open to “more pupils”, rather than all pupils, in the autumn.

MPs and peers including former education secretaries demanded to know why the Government appeared to be focused on getting non-essential shops open rather than prioritising opening schools for more primary and secondary school children.

The Government’s nervousness about reopening schools was questioned by analysis by Cambridge University of the latest Office for National Statistics (ONS) data which shows that that the risk to children from coronavirus is staggeringly small.

Currently the death rate for five to 14 year-olds in England and Wales is just one in 3.5 million. For under-5s, it is one in 1.17 million.

According to the Royal Society for the Prevention of Accidents (Rospa), between 30 and 60 people are struck by lightning each year in Britain, a population risk of between one in 2.21 million and one in 1.1 million annually.

Speaking at a briefing on the new ONS data, Prof Sir David Spiegelhalter chairman of the Winton Centre for Risk said the risk to children was so “tiny” that allowing herd immunity to build naturally in youngsters may be advisable if no vaccine becomes available.

“In school kids aged five to 14 it’s not only a tiny risk, it’s a tiny proportion of the normal risk,” said Sir David, who is a member of the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage).

“I remember the pre-vaccination era and I was sent round to play with friends with measles, mumps and chickenpox. I’m not suggesting this is the public health solution to his, but if no vaccines come along you might be thinking that.”

Lord Blunkett, who served as Education secretary in Tony Blair’s government, accused the Government of a “triumph of fear over ambition” as he called for a “national effort to give all children a face to face experience before the end of July”.

He told BBC Radio 4’s World At One: “To be honest, I think it is a lack of will, it is a lack of ‘can do’.

“It is a failure to do what we have already done with the health service and economy, which is to say there are challenges, there are real problems but we are going as a nation to seek to overcome them.

“Why is it that other countries, not just in Europe but across the world, can have the ambition to get their children, in all kinds of creative ways, back into school and we can’t?

“I can only conclude that the Government is losing the plot.”

The trained teacher added: “I just know that we’ve got to do this. If we can set up the Nightingale hospitals in the time we did, why on Earth can’t we invest in the future of our children?”

Justine Greening, Education secretary from 2016 to 2018, added that it was “untenable to still have no Government plan to get schools reopened”.

Writing for the Telegraph, Robert Halfon, the Tory chairman of the Education select committee, warned of the economic cost of losing nearly half of the school year to the pandemic, saying: “School closures could have a significant impact on the economy.”

He added: “We must get our children and teenagers learning again, and that means reopening schools sooner rather than later. If not, the real risk will be damaging the life chances of thousands of children, by delaying their chance to climb the education ladder of opportunity.”

The Children’s Commissioner for England, Anne Longfield, said it was “ridiculous” that schools were opening after other parts of the economy, such as theme parks from July 4, adding: “Children are in danger of being forgotten in the lifting of lockdown.”

Prof Carl Heneghan, Director of the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine at Oxford University, said it may be worth considering a Swedish model where those at risk are sheltered and younger people are allowed to contract the virus to build herd immunity.

“We will start to have some rational debates because with many infections we know if you get them when you’re very young you actually do very well, for instance, chickenpox,” he said.

“So if there was no vaccination, and this becomes a circulating epidemic infection, we’ll have to have a debate about when it is better to get this infection and if you look at the data it is under 45. As you get older it’s worse.

“This is the sort of Swedish model where you shield some people then other people will potentially get the infection and go on in society.”

Data from England and Wales between March 28 and May 29 shows that coronavirus added just one day of extra annual risk for five to 14-year-olds and less than a day for under-5s.

Prof Sir David, said he did not expect the rate to change as Britain came out as lockdown as the same proportions in age groups would still be expected to die even if infections rose.

Source: The Telegraph

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