Between Imperial College and Oxford the British Gov’t Chose to Rely on the Institution With Poorer Record

There is no scientific consensus for a lockdown

Much of what we are getting from on high at the moment is illogical or with yawning gaps. Are they deliberate, and if so why? Could the real situation be more optimistic than we are being told? Clearly the Prime Minister is not sitting up there inventing things, nor is he doing his own research. He relies wholly on his surrounding officialdom. But the template he has been advised to accept as gospel truth is the ultra-gloomy prognosis of Imperial College London, with its talk of hundreds of thousands of deaths from millions of infections.

But Imperial College has a track record of disaster scenarios, none of which came true. (And yes, we recall the economic gurus telling us of the disaster that would wreck our economy if we split from the EU. All turned out to be bunkum. Until coronavirus the reverse occurred.) We all know that every year we are assailed by seasonal winter flu.

And to this are attributed about 15,000 deaths among those who did not survive. But the overwhelming majority of those had a severe pre-existing condition (PEC) which grievously weakened the constitution. It seems the same is applying to coronavirus.

But how many of the dead and the infected had or have an already damaged health system and what are the percentages? These are being withheld from us but we have a right to know.

It is clear that many hale-and-hearties have had a dose of corona and recovered without fuss. But how many? We are not being told.

But sitting in the Commons, right as rain, is Nadine Dorries who was laid low for a few days and quickly got over it. More to the point, it looks as if the “recovered” then achieve immunity and can return to work with no risk to themselves or others. Is that true? And if so why are they being isolated like the not-so-far-affected? Every day we are shown figures and pictures of desperately gasping unfortunates on hospital beds.

But a picture of someone beaming away and raising a thumb in triumph is not a story. (After 60 years I do know the media pretty well.)

Meanwhile, out of Oxford comes a scenario based on intensive research which contradicts the Imperial College model. According to the Oxford research it would have been better to isolate the PEC sufferers immediately but let the hale-and-hearties carry on.

A minority would have had a bad dose, but the majority would have shrugged off a mild dose as we all do with winter’s annual flu.

There is now a fast and simple testing kit – it can be self-administered at home or in a brief visit to outpatients – which could be made available en masse.

We do not know how many have already had a mild dose, recovered and with their new immunity could face the world again and be a danger to nobody. The new kit could tell us that in minutes.

So did a panicky government accept the most luridly violent prognosis from Imperial College of a national holocaust and on that basis destroy the economy? We shall certainly know in the end. [But they will never admit it.]

If two million eventually catch it and 30,000 die? That would be 15,000 more than the winter flu toll – tragic but not a national crisis. And 15,000 as a percentage of our national population of 67 million is a small fraction of one percent. Too optimistic? Maybe but if Oxford is right and Imperial College wrong, government figures are haywire.

And a last salvo at official forecasting. During the foot-and-mouth epidemic we were told to slaughter six million beasts in the national herd – and did so. Later it was confirmed not one of them need have died. It was all rubbish.

Source: The Daily Express

8 Comments
  1. Mary E says

    Doesn’t it just make you wonder if this whole thing is ‘their’ way of getting Fascism into your country?
    It isn’t out of the realm of reason – or believability – the US was on its way to either a recession (if they were lucky) or a depression, which it still turn into (if the stock market wasn’t artificially pumped up)..
    and now they have a perfect foil: covid! It will kill 0.01% of people who get it ..is more contagious than previous coronaviruses but won’t kill more people…check out the stats: 98% of people who die with Covid have an underlying (major) health problem…the virus just tipped the scale. Keep level headed despite what the government ‘experts’ (like Dr. Jared Kushner, PhD, MD, etc etc) tell you….do not go into panic mode. The truth is better than it is portayed to be.

  2. Jihadi Colin says

    While Frederick Forsythe is right in this instance, he remains a despicable propagandist for imperialism.

  3. CHUCKMAN says

    “There is no scientific consensus for a lockdown”

    That is true, but it has no force in this matter.

    First, what is a politician to do when numerous experts warn and recommend a strong initiative? Just ignore them and risk the political consequences?

    But we can go further than that. Strong measures do seem to have been appropriate if you look at the disease levels in several different countries.

    The US now has reached 1,200 deaths per day, largely owing to Trump’s incompetence, unpreparedness, and delay.

    Germany, Russia, and China have been extremely successful.

    With large populations, it is often the case that you cannot take just fine-tuned measures.

    Fine-tuned measures would be most desirable to a reasonable mind, but they cannot be effective with all the many unreasonable people in any large population. And we have many fools and malicious people.

    God, there are even reported incidents out there of people coughing into the faces of others for a laugh.

    Humanity has at least as many unintelligent and mentally disturbed and reckless hormone-driven individuals as it has sensible people.

    It is unfortunately the human condition.

    We see strong restrictions in wars and disasters where marshal law is often used.

    Sweeping measures are needed to assure an effective level of compliance.

    1. Astrid Watanabe says

      “….Strong measures do seem to have been appropriate…..”
      Overworked nurses and doctors certainly agree.
      If there is any hysteria it is on the other side.

    2. Ron Ronery says

      Why do you think Trump is incompetent? Couldn’t his actions be intentional? The deaths in the USA are mostly in NY State. In this state there are 8.5 to 12 miliion illegals which have no medical health insurance and are lving in poverty. These illegals are dying and Trump could care less since he wants them out of his country. Now, there are other US citizens dying but they are also living in poverty. When you live in poverty, you eat garbage and your immune system is garbage, therefore you die. Of course mixed into the numbers are ligitimate citizens with a job and health insurance but they are also dying not “from” COVID19 but “with” COVID19. Like a CEO leaning out a company to make his profits higher per share, Trump could be doing the same. Allowing the weak and old to die off (prevent under funded pension system from imploding) is a pragmatic move to preserve the greater good of the country in the long run.

      1. Jihadi Colin says

        People who “eat garbage” tend to have much tougher immune systems than the coddled classes, for the simple reason that they’re exposed to pathogens all the time. Your contention is fairly ridiculous as well as unscientific.

      2. CHUCKMAN says

        If you can’t see the fiasco Trump has been, nothing I could say would influence you.

        Enjoy…

    3. Per says

      “what is a politician to do when numerous experts warn and recommend a strong initiative”
      it does not help that they are trapped in a echochamber and only get input/socialise from/with a small group of likeminded idiots.
      And social media have certainly not made it better..

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