As Enemy Tanks Overrun His Outgunned Cops “5D Master” Putin Is Overseeing Pretend-War Games in Asia
Best 5D ever.
Source: Anti-Empire Substack
The long-anticipated Ukrainian offensive kicked off in the Kherson region last week. The Russians were ready and it didn’t go particularly well. It hit fortified, reinforced positions backed by large concentrations of artillery that was already zeroed in on the points of the front Ukraine was likeliest to attack. The push took some ground, including several small settlements, but at a steep cost in men that wasn’t really worth it.
❗️Some TG channels report that UA took of the village of Vysokopole. The picture is reportedly from the village pic.twitter.com/S3KiUHuTIv
— ДражаМ (@DrazaM33) September 4, 2022
But the Ukrainians staggered the Kherson operation with a smaller, 3-brigade push far to the east in the Kharkov region. Here the Russians were not prepared and the first line of defense was overwhelmed quickly.*
Ukrainians selected a section of the front to press against that was manned by Donbass militias and Russia’s paramilitary Rosgvard police — specifically SOBR (SWAT) units from Samara and Ufa. While they themselves attacked with mechanized units and saturated the area with air defenses.
The situation as they say is “fluid”. So far the Ukrainians have advanced up to 30 kilometers in 2 days along a section of the front 40 kilometers wide. This is a speed of advance that the Russians have not been able to demonstrate for months. Since their late-May breakthrough at Popasna.
📽️Advancing Ukrainian troops captured a Russian Lieutenant colonel near Balakliia in #Kharkiv Oblast. #UkraineRussiaWar pic.twitter.com/cy3OV25SIi
— MilitaryLand.net (@Militarylandnet) September 7, 2022
It’s no good to fall for the recency bias and overestimate what such an advance means for a battlefield that stretches for over 1000 kilometers.
At the same time, there is the inescapable fact that over 7 months the Russian war has devolved from a war of lightning-quick Russian advances, to ever slower ones, to the situation now where just repelling Ukrainian blows is considered a success.
But this article is not about that.
This article is about the following. On the eve of the Ukrainian offensive Vladimir Putin was overseeing substantial wargames on the Pacific Coast (Vostok-2022) with Shoigu and Gerasimov. That’s rights. Days, before his outnumbered Rosgvards would be overrun by enemy armor VVP, found substantial military resources to devote to a pretend war on the other side of the world.**
Wouldn’t his energies, and the guns he was overseeing, been better used to back up the embattled policemen in Kharkov?
It’s very simple really. Either Russia still has vast military potential available to her. Such that the Vostok drills are no drain at all. In which case it is absolutely criminal that militias and police were left to defend 40 kilometers of the front unsupported.
Or else the Russian war machine really doesn’t have much left with which to help the militias and cops manning the front — in which case what the hell is VVP doing occupying what little is left for a showcase exercise??
Either case, something is rotten.
This map shows claimed advances by Ukrainain forces towards Kupiansk, in the Kharkiv countryside. Not all of these claims have been visually verified.
A breakthrough in this area puts serious stress on Russian positions in Izyum and Lyman as Kupiansk is a key supply node. pic.twitter.com/0IQmyuA0W4
— Nathan Ruser (@Nrg8000) September 8, 2022
Personally, I think there is good evidence to suggest that within the parameters of a “Special Military Operation” there are no substantial reserves left and that the Russian military is already fighting at its maximal sustainable potential.
The Russian Armed Forces have an authorized strength of just over 1 million, but just 85-90% of the positions are filled. Of these under 400,000 are in the various land combat arms (army, marines, airborne, special forces). And of this 400K, one third are conscripts which VVP has made undeployable. — That is precisely why vulnerable sections of the front are manned by miners and cops in the first place.
Rather than acknowledge the seriousness of this situation, Putin pretends that the war in Ukraine is so under-control (or so low-stakes) that he can continue to afford to hold the biennial maneuvers even as the “Special Operation” is being waged — by SWAT teams having to face tanks.
They removed the #Soviet flag from the administrative building of the village. pic.twitter.com/PzpR9OwqPo
— Julian Röpcke🇺🇦 (@JulianRoepcke) September 7, 2022
*In practice, the Russians who struggle to cover the 1000-kilometer front line with under 200,000 men live and die by artillery. What gains they make are accomplished by concentrating vast amounts of artillery in a tiny locality. Военное обозрение:
At the moment, Russia is using the tactics of concentrating a huge number of MLRS in one of the directions in order to create a total advantage. It works, the goals are achieved, but this can only be done in one area, while the rest will be weakened.
The same is true for defense. In Kherson where the attack was anticipated and artillery was prepositioned to meet it, it was blunted. In Kharkov where such steps were not taken the result was different. (Of course, artillery can only be concentrated in so many places along a 1000-kilometer front.)
Another Ru account says they are only fighting at partial strength and that the Russian state must be fully mobilized. They question why capabilities are being shown at Vostok 2022 when Russian soldiers lack artillery and aviation. “We have a long and difficult fight ahead of us” pic.twitter.com/bFH9JSBGCu
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) September 7, 2022
**An argument could be made that the Vostok war game will help increase training levels of troops that will eventually be (re)sent to Ukraine and thus isn’t a waste. I disagree. From my reading on Soviet military history (Glantz, Reese) I know that large-scale exercises sometimes proved useful for command to test doctrinal concepts, but the units involved turned out to have benefited surprisingly little. Basic soldiering skills are best developed in small-scale drills at the level of platoon, company and battalion. These are logistically easier to pull off and involve much less empty time (transport, waiting around, setup) and can be much more intense. In a time of great need large-scale maneuvers simply detract from time that could be spent in much more intensive training. — Which does not matter to Kremlin because the (shrunken) Vostok is not held for utility to SMO but for its utility in maintaining the facade of normalcy.
PS.: The Ukrainians already staged a similar operation in May. They identified the Russian right flank in the vicinity of Kharkov as a weak point (it had been weakened in favor of the Russian attempt on Lisichansk) manned by ill-equipped Lugansk militias and hit them with a mix of armor, artillery and infantry, resulting in a speedy advance:
Russia’s Loss at Kharkov Highlights Crippling Shortage of Men
Later on a portion of those gains was reversed by the Russians, but at a much slower pace and at a cost in energies and men.
❗Fighting in Balakliya. Especially for those who say that the city "surrendered without a fight." We've seen enough of the Hollywood action movies, and if they didn't hear a shot in a five-second video, then there were no fights. And where did the losses come from on both sides? pic.twitter.com/gwQ0Ihh2lj
— ДражаМ (@DrazaM33) September 8, 2022
So were the Kherson offensive and the hoohah over ZNPP design as diversions from a main effort around Kharkov?
As far as Putin being in his “fake war-game,” it obviously didn’t make sense to rush back to Moscow, as that would have signaled panic and have relentless portrayed as such in the media.
In the context of this Ukrainian success–how far-reaching remains to be seen (though even Moon of Alabama seems to be rattled by it)–you have reiterated your central theme on Ukraine War coverage–inadequate Russian manpower.
Is Putin simply paralyzed with indecision? Did he think he could repeat the risky, ultimately low-cost move in Syria and was being pushed by the right? and has now got himself caught in a trap unable to come up with a way to extract himself?
Stop being a Beta and stop citing “Moon of Alabama.” No one here cares and it makes you sound like a love-struck teenage girl constantly telling us what “Ringo says…”
Stop citing “Moon of Alabama.” No one here cares and it makes you sound like a needy beta/follower.
Hello wake up. The JUdeo nazi PSYOPs on ths pro empire site are out in full force.
Again Unicorns won’t save the racist supremacist global Jewish Judeo Nazi satanic slave empire dictatorship.
The racist Jewish Nazi supremacists ruling Ukraine don’t care if the entire Goyim population dies fighting Russia. That is what they want. So they can advance a few KM in this offensive This entire battle is limited to a short and very narrow segment of the line of contact.
The Judeo Nazi Ukrainian plan is very simple: show NATO the best they can do and it appears that the best they can do is to conduct a tactical attack (not an operational level one!) at an immense costs in human lives.with the pointless sacrifice of tens of thousands of lives.
“Wars are the Jews harvest, for with them we wipe out the Christians and get control of their gold. We have already killed 100 million of them, and the end is not yet.” (Chief Rabbi in France, in 1859, Rabbi Reichorn.)
What matters is how many Ukrainian soldiers Russians kill or wound and how much Ukrainian military equipment the Russians destroy. Territory does not matter as shown by the Russian victory in World War 2.
If large numbers of Ukrainian soldiers and lots of their equipment is destroyed it is a victory for Russia and the territory will be retaken quickly as in the South. I do agree Russia needs to destroy the Ukrainian command and control infrastructure and the Ukrainian leadership.
Russia also likely needs at least another 100k soldiers to take part in the war as the territory of Ukraine is just too big for 150 to 200 k soldiers to take.
Hello wake up. The JUdeo nazi PSYOPs on ths pro empire site are out in full force.
Again Unicorns won’t save the racist supremacist global Jewish Judeo Nazi satanic slave empire dictatorship.
The racist Jewish Nazi supremacists ruling Ukraine don’t care if the entire Goyim population dies fighting Russia. That is what they want. So they can advance a few KM in this offensive This entire battle is limited to a short and very narrow segment of the line of contact.
The Judeo Nazi Ukrainian plan is very simple: show NATO the best they can do and it appears that the best they can do is to conduct a tactical attack (not an operational level one!) at an immense costs in human lives.with the pointless sacrifice of tens of thousands of lives.
“ Wars are the Jews harvest, for with them we wipe out the Christians and get control of their gold. We have already killed 100 million of them, and the end is not yet.” (Chief Rabbi in France, in 1859, Rabbi Reichorn.)
What matters is how many Ukrainian soldiers Russians kill or wound and how much Ukrainian military equipment the Russians destroy. Territory does not matter as shown by the Russian victory in World War 2.
If large numbers of Ukrainian soldiers and lots of their equipment is destroyed it is a victory for Russia and the territory will be retaken quickly as in the South. I do agree Russia needs to destroy the Ukrainian command and control infrastructure and the Ukrainian leadership.
Russia also likely needs at least another 100k soldiers to take part in the war as the territory of Ukraine is just too big for 150 to 200 k soldiers to take.
>>> “What gains they make are accomplished by concentrating vast amounts of artillery in a tiny locality.”
Isn’t that a concept from Verdun in World War 1 ? As we know German artillery failed to accomplish the task at Verdun. They say it was because Germany didn’t have enough cannons.
Is this what we learned in Field-Marshal school ? a method that didn’t work 100 years ago, but might work in 2022 ? if we wish it hard enough
As per his usual, four days ago General Strelkov Girkin announced (once again) the eventual and complete defeat of the Expeditionary Force.
Война будет продолжаться до полного поражения России —все! Чем скорее в Кремле это поймут— тем лучше. Но пока там, все таки, надеются на то, что “сейчас мы немножечко надавим, сейчас еще немножечко побомбим, дальше мы там парочку котлов сделаем, хотя не очень получается, и вот тут-то они пойдут на мир и на этих компромиссных условиях мы мир подпишем”. Этого не будет, но явно подразумевается, что очень многие в Кремле на это надеются
Even though at times Marko can be abrasive he has clearly been proved correct. And Marko’s point of view from my understanding has been the majority view among Russian military bloggers and analysts for quite some time.
It is not wrong to say, if you start a war, fight it properly. You have to be in it to win it. From an outside perspective it seems like Russia wanted to do an Iraq war 2003 in Ukraine and either Russia is not nearly as strong as 2003 America or Ukraine is not nearly as weak as 2003 Iraq. Or both I guess.
At times it seemed like Russia could pull something like a victory out of this with its limited forces. I’m thinking about back in June. Today even if Russia ends up trapping Ukrainian forces who overextended themselves (as the Russians themselves did in Feb-March), this is still a humiliation for a country that tries to act as a quasi-superpower.
Agree, completely.
oh come now, its hardly a disaster and its also hilarious for the Ukrainian clown who finally, after 6 months of trying, has got himself a ‘decent’ tactical victory. Why hilarious? Because no one will ever know about it, the Queen had the indecency to snuff it on the same day! For the next two weeks the British press (ukraines staunchest supporter and Russophobes extraordinaire) will be the first 5 pages deep in ‘the Queen is Dead’ and then the whole Funeral malarky etc, so thats that! As for the Russians, this type of thing was always going to happen in this type of operation, spread too thin, and I wager it will happen again before it’s all over. Bottom line is that in the last 7 to 10 days The Ukies have lost 10,000 KIA, (thats dead to you and me) and a whole host of wounded, has it changed the face of the war? Is this the beginning of victory for the cokehead clown and the Nazi Larpers? Nope, not in the slightest. The bear went for a sh*t in the woods and the Ukies stole his straw, when the bear wakes up it will sh*t on the Ukies a bit more.
Hey pro Jewish Judeo Nazi empire.
Ukraine lost thousands of soldiers in counteroffensive – Moscow
Ukrainian military casualties exceeded 12,000 during Kiev’s five-day counteroffensive, Russia’s Defense Ministry has claimed.
More than 4,000 Ukrainian troops were killed and another 8,000 injured between September 6 and 10 in the south and east of the country, ministry spokesman Lieutenant General Igor Konashenkov said during a daily briefing on Sunday.
According to the official, Russian forces conducted “precision strikes” with missiles and artillery targeting pro-Kiev units in Kharkov region, from where Russian troops retreated earlier as part of what Moscow described as “redeployment.”
Russia said its military has destroyed, among other things, numerous command posts and shot down a helicopter over the past few days.