Armenians Are Losing the War in Karabakh Because Their Air Defenses Can Not Handle Slow-Flying Drones
Hindsight is 20/20 but turns out it was a big mistake not to have had modern drone-killing systems in place
Editor’s note: Armenian anti-aircraft defenses are not particularly modern or potent, but they are perfectly adequate to keep at bay the modest Azeri airforce, which can field only two squadrons of Su-25 ground-attack jets, a squadron of MiG-29 fighters, and two squadrons of Mi-24 attack helicopters.
However, the problem for the Armenian side is that the Azeris are instead relying on slow-flying drones that Armenian anti-aircraft systems are ill-equipped to handle, having been developed before the advent of drones and with different roles and capabilities in mind.
The impression that one gets is that the Armenian side would benefit immensely by an urgent transfer of heaps of anti-drone systems (and training).
Machine translated from Serbian. Excerpted from a much longer analysis here by a Serbian air defense vet.
Unmanned aerial vehicles, kamikaze drones and reconnaissance aircraft, fly at speeds ranging from just over 100 km/h to 250-300 km/h. These speeds are very problematic for tracking in air defense radar systems. Namely, there is no big difference in the air defense systems in terms of whether they are “newer” or “older”, the problem is present in almost everyone.
Thus, the air defense systems “S-300PT” and “S-300PS” cannot, with their radars for tracking targets and guiding missiles, track targets that fly slower than 50 m/s and about 180 km/h, respectively. The same applies to the air defense system “S-125M1 Neva”. In the case of the air defense system “9K37 BukM1-2”, “2K12 Kub and 2K11 Krug”, that limit varies between 50-60 m/s, which means from 180-216 km/h. This practically means that these air defense systems will practically not be able to react effectively against an unmanned reconnaissance or attack aircraft, if it flies at speeds below 50 or 60 m/s.
There is also the question of altitude.
Unmanned aerial vehicles, such as the Bayraktar TB2, can fly at altitudes of over 7,000 meters, which is enough to “exceed” the battery monitoring radar of the “2K12 Kub” system, even when and if the aircraft flies slightly faster than 60 m/s, so in addition to low flight speed, altitude may be a problem here.
The exception is the air defense system “9K33 Osa-AK/AKM” which should be the “right” solution to these problems. The system has a very solid observation radar that can detect very low-flying targets, but also floating targets. In that sense, there is no problem with low flight speed. The problem here is a limited observation height of only 5 km, but also the fact that slow targets flying at speeds below 100 m/s (360 km/h) can be detected at distances less than 6.4 km. In this sense, this is a problem, when attackers are aircraft that fly slower than 100 m/s at altitudes over 5 km, or at altitudes up to 5 km, but at distances over 6.4 km and which can operate laser-guided missiles from distances up to 8000 m (Bayraktar TB2). Also, a certain “internality” of the radar system, which is quite complex, but also single-channel in purpose, showed in this conflict that the air defense system “9K33 Axis AK/AKM” is not able to cope with these challenges of drones and was a frequent victim of unmanned aerial vehicles and kamikaze drones, although it had some success in shooting them down.
Certainly, the best solution for the drone problem would be the “Tor M2KM” system, but the problem here is that Armenia simply does not have enough of these systems, and considering that they were only delivered in the beginning of the year, the level of crew training is also a question.
The system is very atypical. Namely, it is a “container system” that is delivered without an accompanying vehicle or semi-trailer, and can therefore be placed on the supporting structure of a wheeled or tracked vehicle of any suitable type (load capacity above all), as well as on a semi-trailer. The “container” can also be placed on warships. The Armenian army decided that the carrier would be a KAMAZ-63501 8 × 8 truck, a priest.
The Tor-M2KM system can use 9M331 and 9M332 projectiles. The launch vehicle with radar system consists of an observation-acquisition radar with a range of up to 25 km, a target tracking radar and guidance missiles with a range of up to 20 km, an electro-optical tracking system and 8 ZV “9M331” or 9M332 “missiles housed in 2 containers with 4 rockets. The maximum range in distance is up to 16 km, and in height up to 10 km.
The system has very few restrictions on its use for action against drones, low-flying helicopters and piston planes, and it can be said that this system is in fact the right solution to this problem that the Armenians had in the first days of the war. The only question is how many of these systems are available and what is the current status in terms of technical equipment and staff training.
The next issue concerns the angles of attack at which unmanned aerial vehicles, primarily kamikaze drones of the “IAI Harop” type, but also quasi-ballistic missiles “Lora” can attack targets, including air defense systems (especially stationary or semi-mobile).
Kamikaze drones of the “IAI Harop” type, but also locally produced “Orbiters 1/3”, are able to hover-cruise at altitudes up to 3000-4000 meters and to optically or passively radar search for their target. When they find a target, they head towards it, fly low following the configuration and relief of the terrain, and then crash at high angles of attack, which can be problematic for tracking the radars of air defense missile systems. Given that they fly low, before the attack, following the configuration and relief of the terrain, bearing in mind that most of the Nagorno-Karabakh region is hilly and mountainous, all radar-guided air defense missile systems may have problems tracking a target that can be temporarily “blocked” behind a hill, which causes the loss of radar coverage for illuminating the target and the loss of radar-guided missile air defense system.
Source: Tango Six (excerpt)
I wrote about this revolution in 2017 “The Tank is Dead”
Heavy armor is not dead, but mobile anti-aircraft systems are needed in large numbers, and fewer traditional tanks with big guns.
Why don’t the Armenians in coordination with the Iranians invade Nakhchivan? A bargaining chip?
Iran has no intention of being dragged into a conflict that was initially started due to the illegal occupation of NK by Armenia. Neither does Russia have any interest.
Why do you Armenians always think Iran will side with Armenia? They have very good relations with Azerbaijan. They’re not doing anything to help Armenia keep up its illegal occupation of another country.
apparently azeri drones purchased from Israel, turkey are effective. if this determines that azeris can retain control of territory then artahsk will be ethnically cleansed of Armenians
Of course it will be ethnically cleansed of Armenians. That’s the whole point of attacking Nagorno Karabakh cities.
That’s a load of crap. The only point is to control their own land. That is what every government does – in fact that is the whole point of government – if they lose control they are not the government. Duh.
What actually happened is the place was ethnically cleansed of Azerbaijanis. Are you afraid the new victors will treat the old, how the old treated the new?
Of course the Azerbaijanis were ethnically cleansed and the Azerbaijanis will ethnically cleanse the Armenians and for exactly the same reasons, to wit, to remove any chance of resistance. Are you be any chance too “simple” to comprehend that it’s a matter of strategic convenience, almost necessity?
I don’t assume a country is going to do something that awful just because an anonymous pontificator on the internet claims it “makes sense”. Maybe it makes sense to you, and that says a lot about you.
By the way, did you notice that Russia has not ethnically cleansed all non-Russians from the Russian Federation? And in fact that almost every country on the planet, and certainly in that region of the world, contains multiple ethnic groups? Ahh, but the anonymous pontificator makes a proclamation, so it must be true!
There is a teeny bit of difference between an ethnic war and a multi ethnic nation.
Remember how Armenians ethnic cleansed Azeris, the Croats Serbs, the “Kosovo”whatevers Serbs, the Kashmiris Hindu Pandits, the Central African Republic Muslims, the racist fascist Myanmar regime the Rohingyas? You really think this doesn’t happen almost every day?
It wouldn’t surprise me if Azerbaijan punishes some “unlawful combatants”, but there has been no indication whatsoever that they will ethnically cleanse the locals. However, to avoid it completely with assurances from world powers, it makes sense for them to negotiate a peace (surrender), guaranteed by the major powers, instead of forcing Azerbaijan to take everything by force. They negotiate peace on the condition they be allowed to remain and maybe even some autonomy, that is their best plan. But unfortunately the Armenian leadership tries to take an intransigent approach. Nevertheless, I do not think Azerbaijan will punish the locals for the mistakes of Yerevan. Neither their people nor their government is like that.
The total population of Armenians in occupied NK is less than 50,000 (from its 150,000 peak) now as 0ver 30% of the land has been lost to Azerbaijan. The Armenians ethnically cleansed over 750,000 Azeris from the illegally occupied region who have lived in railroad cars near Baku and Ganja since then and would like to go home.
According to Wikipedia, the population of Armenians in the region was 123K in 1979, 145K in 1989, 137K in 2005 and 145K (for “Artsakh Republic”) in 2015, whilst for Azerbaijanis it was 37K in 1979, 41K in 1989, 0K in 2005 and 0 f9r “Artsakh Republic”) in 2015. So there was some pretty heavy ethnic cleansing that apparently went on.
Curious, where do you get your statistics that 100,000 Armenians have fled N-K?
You conveniently omit over 4 million Palestinians displaced by Zionists since 1948.
If I were to talk back to then I would have also included the India Pakistan partition ethnic cleansing which far exceeded the Naqba.
I would have included the Chagos Islanders ethnically cleansed by Brutain.
I would have included the Germans expelled from Eastern and Southern Europe after WWII.
And why stop there? I would have included the Hunnic invasions of Europe, the Trail of Tears in North America, the expulsion of Jews and Muslims from Spain in the 1490s, and on and on.
And even then I would certainly have missed many. Instead I confined myself to the last thirty years.
So your contention is ridiculous.
Thee don’t have enough of the new Russian air defense systems.