An Unintended Syria Air Clash Could Pull Biden Into Conflict Involving Russia, Israel

The conflict in Syria has seen the convergence of multiple, sometimes opposing forces in the skies over a near-decade-long civil war that today threatens to draw the United States’ foreign policy resources back into the quagmire, one in which its closest ally, Israel, and a leading rival, Russia, are among those operating in dangerous proximity.

The sudden roar of jets and missile blasts have become an all too common feature of Syria’s ongoing war, and last week’s attacks across the country’s southwest served as an explosive reminder of the war’s lingering violence. The airstrikes, which were unclaimed but widely blamed on Israel, targeted positions near the Golan Heights and Damascus International Airport, where Israel has accused Iran-linked elements of storing and transporting weapons.

While the attacks were intended to cause harm on the ground, one senior U.S. intelligence official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, raised concerns about the sheer volume of air traffic caused by Israel’s semi-secret bombing campaign while the Russian and Syrian air forces carry out their own missions.

The official told Newsweek that, at the time, “the U.S. observed a significant increase in military air activity over Syria, including forces from Israel and Russia in addition to Syrian aircraft.”

“The airspace was saturated above daily norms,” the official said, “presenting an elevated opportunity of miscalculation or perhaps the misidentification of targets by all entities.”

The U.S. operates in Syria today as part of a multinational coalition tasked with the defeat of the Islamic State militant group (ISIS) in the country’s northeast. Russia and Syria also target ISIS in other parts of the country, along with other insurgent forces, some backed by Turkey. Iran supports this latter campaign on the ground, but its partnered militias are viewed as a threat and targeted by Israel.

The complex lines of control are blurred, and have led to reports of up to 170 reported aviation and unmanned aerial vehicle incidents involving at least seven nations as well as non-state actors. On the ground in Syria, some worry a misunderstanding could always be mere moments away.

“About the crowded airspace over Syria, it’s always been a concern, notably after the U.S. stepped in Syria,” a Syrian source who asked to remain anonymous told Newsweek.

With so many countries operating in Syrian airspace, the chances of something going wrong are high, this source said.

And then add missiles to the mix.

“Now where Russia and the U.S. and Turkey and France, not to mention Israel, are all operating over/near Syria accidents are always possible,” the source added, “especially when the case involves air defense missiles. Once the missile is launched, there’s no turning back.”

There have already been a number of lethal, high-profile miscalculations, such as Syria’s accidental downing of a Russian spy plane during an Israeli raid in 2018. Others, such as the U.S. shoot-down of a Syrian jet allegedly flying over territory held by the Pentagon-backed Syrian Democratic Forces the year prior, were deliberate escalations.

The Israeli and Syrian armed forces have also shot down one another’s warplanes. As yet, there have been no clashes between Israeli and Russian aircraft. But with an increased number of forays into Syria by Israel, such an incident cannot be ruled out.

To prevent this, the two countries have a coordination mechanism on Syria, the details of which are difficult to discern, especially given Moscow’s close ties to Damascus and strategic partnership with Tehran. At the same time, Russia has expressed its criticism of Israeli operations in the country.

“It is hard to deny that such actions further destabilize the complicated regional situation,” Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova told reporters amid an intensification of Israeli strikes in December.

Israel rarely discusses the specifics of its Syria operations, but an Israeli military official told Newsweek that the country’s communications with Russia have mitigated the risk to both sides.

“We do indeed have a deconfliction mechanism with the Russian military which facilitates our freedom of action while minimizing risk of friction with Russian troops, and promotes mutual safety,” the Israeli military official said. “So far, it has been very effective and withstood challenging circumstances in a very dense battle space.”

Newsweek also spoke last month with an Israeli security official who discussed the challenges of target selection in Syria given the ambiguity surrounding the conflict in Syria, where local troops, Iranian personnel, fighters of the Iran-backed Lebanese Shiite Muslim Hezbollah movement, and sometimes Russian forces are operating.

“[The Syrian army] gives [Hezbollah] a lot of space to do what they want, and it makes life a bit uncomfortable,” the Israeli security said at the time. “It’s a big problem for us to actually decide who to strike and what to do.”

Syria’s permanent mission to the United Nations has condemned what it called “acts of aggression perpetrated by Israel” in past statements sent to Newsweek.

On the ground, a second Syrian source who requested anonymity described the layout of this stretch of Syria’s air activity, where not only military-to-military incidents but those involving military and civilian airlines are “a very common thing.”

The Syrian government’s aerial operations over its own country are limited. Restricted areas include the autonomous northeast, a U.S.-controlled southeast desert pocket, and a northern border stretch occupied by rebels, jihadis and Turkish troops, the second source said.

Syrian jets also operate along the southern and western borders, as well as off the Mediterranean coast, but this source noted any activity too close to Lebanese or Israeli borders would be met with an Israeli military response.

The second source said the Russians don’t share these limitations—or any, for that matter.

“There are some restrictions beyond our waters, there are some restrictions over Lebanon, over the south,” the second source explained. “While for Russia there are no restrictions at all. They are more free than us.”

This freedom extends to and beyond Syria’s exclusive economic zone as well, where “U.S. spy planes are also flying,” this source said.

The U.S. and Russia have their own deconfliction channels, both for air and ground operations in Syria’s northeast, where tensions between the two countries and their respective allies have mounted in recent months. The two countries have largely pursued their campaigns separately, but have had occasional dust-ups, some of which have been violent.

“Unlike the case between Russia and the U.S. where a direct line of communication between the two is existing and minor incidents can be easily stopped before escalation,” the first Syrian source told Newsweek, “the aerial clashes between the two adversaries, i.e. Syria and Israel, have always placed the regional civilian flights in danger.”

“Israeli jets flying in a civilian corridor or near a civilian plane and Syrian missiles seeking after a big radar pulse after missing their locked targets or crashing into a house, you name it,” the first source said. “Errors are possible and will always be costly.”

While Moscow’s mission in Syria to save President Bashar al-Assad‘s government from a nationwide insurrection has been clear from the start, Washington’s goals have shifted over the course of administrations. Former President Barack Obama initially sought to topple Assad by supporting insurgents but switched to an anti-ISIS mission later carried out by former President Donald Trump, who expressed a desire to withdraw but kept up to 900 troops behind to guard oil and gas sites.

President Joe Biden, who served as Obama’s vice president, has offered no indication of ending U.S. presence in Syria, despite Damascus’ calls for withdrawal. The new U.S. leadership has also not signaled a willingness to become further involved in the conflict.

In a statement sent to Newsweek, a State Department spokesperson detailed three aims of President Joe Biden’s administration in Syria.

First, “The United States is committed to a political settlement in line with UNSCR 2254 to end the conflict in Syria, in close consultation with our allies, partners, and the U.N.,” the spokesperson said.

Second, “We will use the tools at our disposal, including economic pressure, to push for meaningful reform and accountability for the Assad regime,” according to the statement.

Third, “The United States and the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS continue to work with our increasingly capable local partners to maintain constant pressure on ISIS remnants in Syria to ensure ISIS’s lasting defeat,” as relayed to Newsweek by the State Department spokesperson.

U.S. officials have routinely declined to discuss the role in Syria played by Israel, a country the Biden administration has reaffirmed a longstanding pact to defend. Israel went entirely unmentioned in the Pentagon‘s latest quarterly report to Congress detailing U.S. military missions in Iraq and Syria, despite including references to the other major actors, including Iran, Russia and Turkey.

Reached for comment by Newsweek, the U.S. Central Command declined to discuss the specifics of air operations over the stretch of the country frequented by Russian and Israeli jets.

“I am going to decline to comment on the air space over Western Syria,” a Pentagon spokesperson said.

Source: Newsweek

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yuri
yuri
8 months ago

biden has 3 aims
active life alert system in WH basement
plentiful supply depends
ample free cocaine for hunter

Larry
Larry
8 months ago
Reply to  yuri

The brand name DependS no longer has that ‘s’ at the end. History says it was never there! This is one of THOUSANDS of very real MANDELA EFFECTS. I highly recomend people look into this. REALITY IS MALEABLE!!

Jose
Jose
8 months ago
Reply to  Larry

Especially with the drugs you are on

Sally Snyder
Sally Snyder
8 months ago

Here is an article that looks at the late-2020 moves by Washington against Syria:

https://viableopposition.blogspot.com/2020/11/syria-and-how-washington-has-become.html

Washington simply cannot admit that its efforts in Syria have come to naught and that Bashar al-Assad has not followed the examples of Muammar Qaddafi and Saddam Hussein.  

Larry
Larry
8 months ago

SICKENING! BOTH parties are CORRUPT, EPSTEIN GUILTY and serve our 911 MURDERING / Epstein RAPING BLACKMAILING / ISIS TERRORIST / Beruit NUKING / USS LIBERTY MURDERING PARASITE SATANIC SCUMBAG MONSTERS IN TEL AVIV. Get it?

Romulas
8 months ago
Reply to  Larry

U.S. Sheep just cannot understand that they only just have one party of despots and that it is controlled by Hell Aviv. Enjoy your ride to the gulags, you earned it.

ken
ken
8 months ago

The US and ‘allies’ that created this mess need to cease and desist.

Israel, the out of control (chosen)toddler in the ME/NA’ needs to cease and desist.

Russia / Syria need to close Syrian airspace,,, Lebanese airspace as well if needed. For the safety of civilians,, a tactic the West uses all the time when they wish to destroy a nation.

Problem solved.

“Israel, a country the Biden administration has reaffirmed a longstanding pact to defend” Newsweek

First,,, How does one “defend” an aggressor? This policy of defending poor little defenseless Israel is the result of the rapture cult of Christian Evangelicals false doctrine.

Second,,, WWII began because England declared it would defend Poland, which then Poland refused to negotiate with Germany the robbing and murdering of ethnic Germans by Polish citizens.

History does repeat…

Thirdly,,, when did Newsweek become credible again?

Edward U Huguenin
Edward U Huguenin
8 months ago

Neither Israel or the US are signatories to the ICC, because it is understood by the governments of both countries, that they both commit war crimes, in their quests to obtain their geopolitical agendas. 

Eddy
Eddy
8 months ago

On the contrary. The ICC was never designed, nor was it ever meant to capture/charge/punish anyone from Israel and/or America, as BOTH these nations make the Rules for everyone else to comply to, or else. The rules do not, ever, apply to either of them.

Jerry Hood
Jerry Hood
8 months ago

If I was Putin,no one plane would violate Syrian airspace, and Golan Heights, aka Stolen Heights, would have been long time in Syria’s rightful ownership! And Syria again,as one,united land and country!

Eddy
Eddy
8 months ago
Reply to  Jerry Hood

My thoughts exactly. Syrian airspace should be closed to all unauthorised air traffic. ANY aircraft breaching said closures to be shot down. Israel and the U.S. warned in advance, if their aircraft intrude, they WILL be shot down and the responsibility lies on THEIR shoulders for ignoring the wwarnings.

jm74
Trusted Member
jm74 (@jm74)
8 months ago

When posting articles the publishing web site should and correct any inaccuracies; the conflict in Syria is not a civil war and has been proven to be a war instigated and supported by foreign states using primarily foreign terrorists/rebels as proxies.

Eddy
Eddy
8 months ago
Reply to  jm74

My sentiments exactly. Any journalistic publication printing such drivel needs to be held to account for perpetrating such LIES.

richseeto
8 months ago

Who gives the US and its allies the right to fly over Sovereign Syria and control part or all of its air space?

The same goes with the hegemon’s provocation in China’s backyard under the guise of Freedom of Navigation on the excuse of International Law based order.

Eddy
Eddy
8 months ago
Reply to  richseeto

There is no such thing as international Law based order. From where does this alleged Law come from ? Who formulates these alleged laws ? Is there some mysterious organisation that I’m unawares of, where such laws are promulgated/submitted and then voted on by all International citizens ??????
It can’t be the U.N. as there is no procedure therein for such vetting or voting democraticly. All U.N representatives are APPOINTED by their various Governments, the people have no say whatever. What sort of democracy is that ????????

Eddy
Eddy
8 months ago

The war in Syria is NOT a civil war at all. It is a war being waged against the Government and people’s of Syria by WESTERN ALLIGENCES to destroy the current democratic Government in Syria, which refuses to cowtow to Western demands. These Western alliegences are using dispossessed peoples of the M.E. to do the dirty fighting . The same Western nations are providing the funds/training and material to, these terrorists who do their bidding. To verify this, one needs only to see the ILLEGAL INVASION AND OCCUPATION of American Forces on Syrian soil. Since when is it the business of the Americans, to ILLEGALLY INVADE another nation and then to build occupation military bases on that foreign soil and involve themselves in another nation’s ALLEGED civil war ??

Anti-Empire