Zelensky Estimates 50 to 100 Ukrainian Military Deaths Every Day

Zelensky has said that 50 to 100 Ukrainian soldiers perish every in the east of the country. That is to say he was talking only about the deaths in Donbass, not counting deaths that occur on the Kherson front, and any deaths when Russia hits training centers in the rear with cruise missiles.

Previously on April 15 he estimated that 2500 to 3000 Ukrainian soldiers had perished in the war, which works out to 50 to 60 per day.

Zelensky was speaking in a context where he did not have an incentive to full-on minimize Ukrainian deaths. He was addressing a question about a petition to allow Ukrainian men to exit the country.

I don’t quite understand whom this petition addresses. Does this petition address me? Or, maybe this petition should address the parents of those warriors, who lost these people, because they defended Ukraine at the cost of their lives?

Today, from 50 to 100 people could be killed here in the most complicated area, in the east of our country.”

50 to 100 per day works out to 1500 to 3000 dead per month. For the three months of war so far that would be 4500 to 9000 Ukrainian military deaths so far.

The Kherson front is fairly quiet, particularly recently, but Ukrainian losses in the Russian targeting of barracks are quite significant. There is a reporting ban on these, but sometimes videos of carnage come out, forcing Ukraine to acknowledge them.

Thus in the last seven days, there were two such strikes that we know of. A strike on the barracks of the 91st brigade in Sumy that according to Ukrainian reports killed about 70. And a strike on a training center in Chernigov region that according to Zelensky killed 87. Early reports were of 250 to 300 killed.

So what are the true Ukrainian losses so far? Impossible to know. Zelensky’s figures do not include significant losses that are occurring in missile strikes against the rear, and are probably undercounts even just for Donbass. But given the context in which they were given, I do not think they are not massive undercounts but have some correlation to the truth and some information value.

I think Zelensky’s 4500 to 9000 partial and undercounted estimate fits well with my previous guesstimate that anything from 6000 to 18000 deaths is plausible for Ukraine.

Zelensky’s number of 50 to 100 dead per day on the Ukrainian side is also interesting in the light of me having estimated 75 deaths per day for the Russia-led side last week and 50 deaths daily the week before.

In any case, this is a very bloody war. In the Bosnian war — the costliest in Europe after WWII — about 40 combatants were killed per day.  In 1992, the bloodiest year of the war, about 90 combatants were killed per day. In the bloodiest month of 1992, 145 combatants were killed per day.

The Ukraine War matches the very bloodiest month of Bosnia.

The 6 weeks of the 2nd Karabakh War in 2020 produced 7200 combatant deaths or 160 per day. — Also a similar level.

At least 4200 Ukrainian soldiers have also entered captivity. The vast majority in Mariupol.

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  • Tom

    This is WW3 — Only matter of time before it goes Nuclear — If you live in the USA, expect to be nuked before the end of the year — Bye bye USA

  • AL

    That’s actually a joke number and not anywhere near shock and awe levels. The danger is NATO can backfill those people with unlimited Islamic mercenaries from the NATO/Wahabi alliance plus thousands of drones and cruise missiles. That’s why the smart strategy was to seize ground quickly and have huge numbers of reserve troops and militias set up in advance to hold the ground. That Russia does not firmly hold everything east of the river after three months is an epic failure of strategy bordering on the criminal. Look at the deteriorating situation in Moldova and how long it would take for Russia to get to Transnistria in the event of an attack now.

  • Geraldo

    yeah, it has been at between 300 and 500 per day for the last 4 weeks. 3000 per week, unsustainable. 4th mobilisation in 3 months. Ukrainian bullshit is very pungent but apparently they have a million men left or something according to Elensky the muppet. Who knows, it will become clearer the longer this lasts but not until after the war will we really know. I’ve been at 50,000 KIA for a couple of weeks now so by December we will be looking at 100,000 KIA. Russkies nowhere near, I think 10000 KIA absolute max at the moment. RF took some punishment in the first 2 weeks but its been steady as you like since then, sniffing, probing, pushing forward then conceding ground when nessecary only to counterattack .. I think the Ukie army will collapse before xmas anyway, can’t maintain it and the quality of troops being thrown into the mix are very poor whilst all the officers sneak off back to yhe Kiev nightclubs. If it wasn’t for Elenskys coke supply it would all be over by now.