>>>> “a liar, an opportunist, a murderer, and a traitor. He’s probably not going to make it into school books”
Perhaps, you should refresh your memory. Them people are bread & butter of school-book writers —such illustrious figures often pay school-book writers to write. (sometimes they even pay for after-school books, like “Life of Napoleon Bonaparte” or “War & Peace”)
If the head-waiter succeeds, he will be in some book, eventhough his character is no better than Mr. Nuzhin’s
Oscar Peterson
A charming story.
But back to the main issue: Where is Russia in the process of fashioning its 300K mobilized troops into combat units with adequate leadership and logistics? Is that happening? What will the order of battle look like with the additions?
Winter offensive? Post-spring-Rasputitsa offensive? No offensive?
RegretLeft
That’s my question too! – I have hints that plenty of them are already deployed to the front lines; some of them surrender the first chance they get; others get mauled by artillery fire and deserted by their officers, cold, wet, hungry at night in a forest. Others are left behind as human tank traps by regular troops who don’t tell them they are retreating under cover of darkness. Again – these are hints not facts but it doesn’t sound good.
peterinanz
“Where is Russia in the process of fashioning its 300K mobilized troops into combat units with adequate leadership and logistics? ”
Nowhere.
“Is that happening? ”
No.
“What will the order of battle look like with the additions?”
There isn’t one.
“Winter offensive? Post-spring-Rasputitsa offensive? No offensive?”
The last.
The Agenda is going forward better than expected. This, little, part of it even better. For the Players, that is.
For the NPCs, Russian in particular, worse than expected.
There WILL be an offensive. NATO. Most likely along Mykolaev axis starting in January, probably. Preparations, by the book, are going on as we speak. Same method as Kherson. Same result.
Then the next…..
Oscar Peterson
So you are predicting that NATO will enter the war in January by committing troops into Ukraine against Russia?
I find that very hard to believe.
What units will be committed? We (the US) still don’t have much in the way of heavy forces in Europe. And no one has started selling such a move to the European or American publics.
January is right around the corner.
Why do you believe that is going to happen?
peterinanz
I am starting to have doubts in effectiveness of this conversation.
“So you are predicting that NATO will enter the war in January by committing troops into Ukraine against Russia?”
No. This became NATO war a week after it started. If you need me to elaborate on that I suggest we part ways here.
“I find that very hard to believe.”
Fine.
“What units will be committed? We (the US) still don’t have much in the way of heavy forces in Europe. And no one has started selling such a move to the European or American publics.”
Try to read this slowly: Ukrainian forces are just part of this effort in Eastern Europe. That effort is complex organism where those forces are just….say…..arms. Legs, torso and, the most importantly, brains, are something/somebody else.
You don’t, really, think that the battlefield awareness is just Ukrainian effort? Logistics? Even tactical reconnaissance? Command and control integration/targeting? On even, say, micro level: where do you think the bulk of SAS and SBS are, as we speak? The later in particular.
“January is right around the corner.”
It is.
“Why do you believe that is going to happen?”
Makes sense to me. Why it makes sense won’t explain.
Test, quick: what’s THE difference between a self propelled cannon and tank? One second, one word. Civilian..
Another one: what’s difference between automatic rifle and a machinegun. One second, two words.
More specific: what’s THE difference between RF artillery and NATO…I mean Ukrainian artillery in this debacle? One sentence.
Nobody in this limited hangout strikes me as spending a day in military, let alone combat. Explaining basics to …ahm…civilians…I have better things to do.-I say what I think but I don’t argue/debate/discuss combat with civilians. No offense.
What will happen, most likely, is the same what happened in Kherson, along Mikolayev axis, most likely, as the main effort. Secondary, spoiling efforts somewhere else. Now, the secondary CAN become primary/vice versa, depending on a couple of things, not all of them purely military in nature.
Now, what happens next could be interesting. Donbas, as most likely scenario.
Let’s put it this way: the true losers of this debacle are Ukrainian Rusophiles. Next in the line are poor souls of Donbas. All easily done.
The true test will be Crimea.
All above depending on the current cabal in Kremlin (still) holding power which is most likely. Crimea affair could change that.
So, we’ll see.
>>>> “a liar, an opportunist, a murderer, and a traitor. He’s probably not going to make it into school books”
Perhaps, you should refresh your memory. Them people are bread & butter of school-book writers —such illustrious figures often pay school-book writers to write. (sometimes they even pay for after-school books, like “Life of Napoleon Bonaparte” or “War & Peace”)
If the head-waiter succeeds, he will be in some book, eventhough his character is no better than Mr. Nuzhin’s
A charming story.
But back to the main issue: Where is Russia in the process of fashioning its 300K mobilized troops into combat units with adequate leadership and logistics? Is that happening? What will the order of battle look like with the additions?
Winter offensive? Post-spring-Rasputitsa offensive? No offensive?
That’s my question too! – I have hints that plenty of them are already deployed to the front lines; some of them surrender the first chance they get; others get mauled by artillery fire and deserted by their officers, cold, wet, hungry at night in a forest. Others are left behind as human tank traps by regular troops who don’t tell them they are retreating under cover of darkness. Again – these are hints not facts but it doesn’t sound good.
“Where is Russia in the process of fashioning its 300K mobilized troops into combat units with adequate leadership and logistics? ”
Nowhere.
“Is that happening? ”
No.
“What will the order of battle look like with the additions?”
There isn’t one.
“Winter offensive? Post-spring-Rasputitsa offensive? No offensive?”
The last.
The Agenda is going forward better than expected. This, little, part of it even better. For the Players, that is.
For the NPCs, Russian in particular, worse than expected.
There WILL be an offensive. NATO. Most likely along Mykolaev axis starting in January, probably. Preparations, by the book, are going on as we speak. Same method as Kherson. Same result.
Then the next…..
So you are predicting that NATO will enter the war in January by committing troops into Ukraine against Russia?
I find that very hard to believe.
What units will be committed? We (the US) still don’t have much in the way of heavy forces in Europe. And no one has started selling such a move to the European or American publics.
January is right around the corner.
Why do you believe that is going to happen?
I am starting to have doubts in effectiveness of this conversation.
“So you are predicting that NATO will enter the war in January by committing troops into Ukraine against Russia?”
No. This became NATO war a week after it started. If you need me to elaborate on that I suggest we part ways here.
“I find that very hard to believe.”
Fine.
“What units will be committed? We (the US) still don’t have much in the way of heavy forces in Europe. And no one has started selling such a move to the European or American publics.”
Try to read this slowly: Ukrainian forces are just part of this effort in Eastern Europe. That effort is complex organism where those forces are just….say…..arms. Legs, torso and, the most importantly, brains, are something/somebody else.
You don’t, really, think that the battlefield awareness is just Ukrainian effort? Logistics? Even tactical reconnaissance? Command and control integration/targeting? On even, say, micro level: where do you think the bulk of SAS and SBS are, as we speak? The later in particular.
“January is right around the corner.”
It is.
“Why do you believe that is going to happen?”
Makes sense to me. Why it makes sense won’t explain.
Test, quick: what’s THE difference between a self propelled cannon and tank? One second, one word. Civilian..
Another one: what’s difference between automatic rifle and a machinegun. One second, two words.
More specific: what’s THE difference between RF artillery and NATO…I mean Ukrainian artillery in this debacle? One sentence.
Nobody in this limited hangout strikes me as spending a day in military, let alone combat. Explaining basics to …ahm…civilians…I have better things to do.-I say what I think but I don’t argue/debate/discuss combat with civilians. No offense.
What will happen, most likely, is the same what happened in Kherson, along Mikolayev axis, most likely, as the main effort. Secondary, spoiling efforts somewhere else. Now, the secondary CAN become primary/vice versa, depending on a couple of things, not all of them purely military in nature.
Now, what happens next could be interesting. Donbas, as most likely scenario.
Let’s put it this way: the true losers of this debacle are Ukrainian Rusophiles. Next in the line are poor souls of Donbas. All easily done.
The true test will be Crimea.
All above depending on the current cabal in Kremlin (still) holding power which is most likely. Crimea affair could change that.
So, we’ll see.
And, BTW, I am not overly interested in all that.
This
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ksDo4ms3sRo
is much more interesting. To each his/her own, naturally.
Excellent post, as always. Thanks for this ^
In your dreams perhaps?