The Next War in the East Won’t Be Limited to Donbass

Russia intervened in Donbass in 2014 (primarily with cross-border artillery and material aid, and possibly spotters and liaisons) to defend Donbass from Kiev.

The Russian military takeover of Crimea which allowed a Crimean independence referendum galvanized a previously glum and resigned Donbass into rising up with the aim of securing the same outcome of breaking off from Kiev and joining Russia for themselves.

This was a development that caught Kremlin completely by surprise. Rather than order the Russian military to take control of Donbass as it had done in Crimea, Moscow quashed their hopes and came up with the formulation of “Crimea is Russia, Donbass is Ukraine” that was put on an endless loop.

Nonetheless, Moscow expected Donbass would be allowed a measure of autonomy and would be reincorporated under Kiev behind a green table. When post-coup Kiev moved to subdue Donbass by force instead, Russia eventually struck against the coup-government forces — but only just enough to prevent their victory and to force them to abandon their offensive and the hope of a military resolution.

So to repeat, from Russia’s position the 2014 war was a very minor one and with very limited goals — to prevent the Kiev putschists from rolling over a region which had rejected them.

There is now currently great anxiety and unease in Washington as they’ve come to realize that should another war break out in the area Russia’s war goals won’t be nearly so limited:

The agency also worried that the potential conflict zone didn’t appear to be just the eastern sliver of Ukraine occupied by Russian-backed separatists, which Russian troops had approached the previous April, but a much broader swath of the country. Alarm bells rang at the agency, and then across the U.S. government.

NATO’s slow but unrelenting tip-toeing ever deeper into Ukraine means the strategic conundrum for Moscow is no longer protecting Donbass from Kiev, but securing Russia itself against NATO. Should the next war come Moscow’s war goal will not be to rebuff the advance of Ukrainians but to freeze the advance of NATO.

I don’t think the Russian government wants war. In fact, a war would all but guarantee that NATO would move into whatever remained of Ukraine after it even faster.

An agreement would be much preferable. However, the continuation of NATO’s Drang Nach Osten that will eventually see them setting up Canadian training facilities in a city as Russian as Kharkov isn’t tolerable:

President Vladimir Putin said on Tuesday that Russia would be forced to act if its “red lines” on Ukraine were crossed by NATO, saying Moscow would view the deployment of certain offensive missile capabilities on Ukrainian soil as a trigger.

Meanwhile, with Belarusian relations with the West lower than even during the days of the “Outpost of Tyranny” Lukashenko is valuing the fact Russia has his back military more than ever.

The fact he now “owes one” to Russia reshuffles the chessboard considerably. This, on the other hand, is what is causing anxiety in Kiev.

There are no Russian ground troops in Belarus that we know of. (Only a handful of jet fighters in the Baranovichi airbase.) But if that were to ever change then any conflict would kick off with the Ukrainians surrounded on three sides. Moreover, Kiev is just 200 kilometers from the Belarusian border.

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  • jim

    How much longer do we have to wait for the poohtin to stand up and DO SOMETHING FINALLY. It keeps getting put off and put off month after month and all we see is more aggression from nato. Just go in and do the job. There is absolutely NOTHING yankee could do about it and would be soooooo funny if yankee tried. Maybe they should kick the poohtin out and replace him with a MAN that WILL retaliate each and every time there is another provocation from jens. The poohtin is too scared a them. We need a man that will stand up NOW not next year or next decade. DO IT NOW.

    • Maiasta

      That would be a serious mistake. Attacking Kiev is what the West wanted him to do. It would justify them erecting a diplomatic wall and full sanctions against Russia. This would also backfire on Putin himself and undermine his leadership. Fortunately, he’s not so silly.

      • Mr Reynard

        Full sanctions on Russia ?? LMAO a country that span 11 time zones depend on western (now shitholes) countries to survive ??
        Like the sluts faggots on Main Shit Merdia spluttered? “Russia is Broke “?? “Russia is Broke “?? “Russia is Broke “?? Russia need “western expertise” ?? What Russia need ??
        Faggots Transgendered Army ? Ohh I know, F35 for their Air Force ?? Maybe German Wurst, French Camembert ,US Mac Do & KFC ?
        English warm beer ?

    • anonymous human

      How much longer do we have to wait for the poohtin to stand up and DO SOMETHING FINALLY

      Are you tired of not-war? Although currently it is not really peace, either, things are much preferable to a real shooting war / conflagration. Putin and hte Russian people know this. **They** have the real experience of war and ths loss of at least 26 million of their father’s, brothers, mothers, sisters and other family members. The west has never experienced war. It’s always been, by design, on someone else’s turf. Putin, Russia and China are right to push the start of a eral war as far back as possible, because the results will not be anything like a Hollywood movie (USA! USA!..ad nauseum for a few minutes – and then eternal silence) Pray for peace and that the psychopaths in Washington, London, Brussels and TelAviv don’t actually start something that Russia and China will finish for them.

      • cargo cultist

        Disagree.

        A shooting war is very preferable to vaccine tyranny. Imagine it ⁠— the media may lie about something other than a “global pandemic” for a year or so.

        I also just want to see if they’ll make soldiers go out in masks and how many drop dead from “the coronavirus”.

        • Maiasta

          A shooting war is very preferable to vaccine tyranny.

          Unfortunately, these two options are not being counterposed. In fact, they are even mutually compatible. If the different power blocs are secretly collaborating in the creation of a new global transaction system, then any “war” between them will largely be a theatrical one, & used to justify removing the last shreds of freedom we have.

        • Ultrafart the Brave

          ” I also just want to see if they’ll make soldiers go out in masks and how many drop dead from “the coronavirus”. “

          Thankfully for the world, President Putin is unlikely to take his country to war for the purpose of satisfying the flippant curiosity of an idle vagrant sitting in his mother’s basement with too much free time and nothing else useful to do such as yourself.

          Moreover, as another poster has already pointed out, Russia (and China) don’t start wars, they finish them.

      • jim

        I pray that Russia and China destroy yankees and their nazi buddies they saved in 1946/47 RIGHT HERE. Its time for payback to yankeestan. Hope Putin uses the posiden adventure on yankeestan. Thats what I’d do. Right after jens next provocation and confirmation lots of them are in dc. .

    • PtownP

      The impatient Jim foolishly dares to second guess the team of Putin, Lavarov and Soygu, the undisputed Russian masters at the great game of nations,

  • JSS

    Russia has become a very, very confusing country lately. How can the authorities total and complete submission to the flu hoax be reconciled with Putin demanding to be taken seriously on foreign policy? I can’t make sense of it at all. Granted there is no doubt that the Russian armed forces are more than capable of defeating NATO in Ukraine but on the other hand it’s difficult to believe Putin has Russia’s best interest at heart when he has utterly sold out on the Covid hoax.

    Let’s say this war really happens, most likely NATO will just leave the Ukrainians to their fate and the country will be dismembered. Russia will become a total pariah to the degenerate and dying West which is no big deal at all and if anything will be a blessing long term. However that kind of defeats the whole purpose of submitting to the flu hoax doesn’t it? As far I can tell Russia going all in on Covid tyranny is purely in the interest of the international oligarchy and Russia’s 5th column. It has nothing at all to do with the Russia’s interest as a world power and its people. So why the assertiveness internationally and an unprecedented capitulation domestically that we haven’t seen since Yeltsins days? This a huge contradiction that I personally can’t make any sense of.

    • Maiasta

      I agree. It is confusing. Starting decades ago, the WEF’s Young Global Leaders initiative placed a lot of its own people in various health bureaucracies around the world. Whether this included Russia or not, i do not know. But it seems likely that individuals of this type have influenced Putin to go along with the hoax. But at the same time, the country’s pre-existing geopolitical position hasn’t changed.

      How far does the ecompliciy go vs. Russia’s traditional independence? The planned monetary collapse and the establishment of a new transaction system won’t work if Russia is not on board with it. So, maybe someone out there with a good knowledge of Moscow’s economic strategy can shed more light…?

      Russia’s central bank is definitely aware of what’s happening, as their own recent report contains four separate scenarios for the near future, most of which are grim, and include a complete financial collapse by the year 2023.

    • cargo cultist

      You can’t make sense of it because your premise was an idealized version of Putin and the Russian political class.

      If you hadn’t been silly enough to start there, you’d understand that:

      • Russia is subject to the same economic forces as everyone else and can be made to bow to or be bought by them
      • Russia is beholden to its military and traditional posture of defense, as without it, the West would sweep in overnight
      • technocracy operates everywhere including within Russia

      Far from canceling each other out, these facts are intertwined ⁠— the Russian elite, whether military, technocratic or whatever, do not want to be ousted by the West, so they have an interest in trying out all the hot new methods for corralling the people, but they also have to continue to play ball with the West to an extent so they’re not kicked out of SWIFT and so on.

      It has nothing at all to do with the Russia’s interest as a world power and its people.”

      Who told you the Russian political elite have their people’s best interests at heart and not their own power? is that how the world works?

      • JSS

        No offense but your analysis is really meh. You say Russia can be bought and made to bow via economic pressure than you go on and say Russia will be swept by the West without a strong defensive posture and if they don’t try out “corralling” their people. That doesn’t work really on the face it because your first point was that the West can sweep Russia economically. Either your analysis is missing something or you didn’t explain it very well.

        As for the elites just want “power” that’s a common cliche. XI is powerful but on the balance he works for China’s interest. You could have said the same about Khaddafi and Sadam, while they may have abused their power at times on the balance they also tried to make life better in their respective countries. In others word there are leaders in the world who have some rightful authority in the eyes of their well as power. Putin until very recently appeared to belong to that category, while the Russian government always has problems with corruption Putin took pains to stay on the good side of the majority of the Russian population. That doesn’t seem to be the case now and that makes him less powerful not more so. Putin’s power rested more on a mandate from the general population than money from the oligarchy, the fact that Western heads of state obtain their positions via being the favorite candidate of the billionaire class actually limits their real power. They need not worry laws but they sure as heck will not cross the oligarchy and the oligarchy is international.

        So by surrendering to the Covid hoax the Russian government is essentially surrendering its power to foreign interest, it isn’t gaining any at all. The reduced freedom and opportunities of the Russian people will not equal a net gain for Putin’s personal power, the gain will benefit an oligarchy that is not loyal to any particular state (besides Israel in many cases). Given all that I still can’t make sense of the Russian authorities being seriously assertive vs Ukraine while simultaneously totally surrendering to the people that already run the West domestically.

    • Ultrafart the Brave

      “I can’t make sense of it at all.”

      No-one is going to be able to reconcile current developments against any particular narrative without the benefit of complete access to all the facts (which none of us have – an unavoidable reality).

      If we look at the track record over the past several decades, President Putin certainly appears to be one of the “good guys”, and Russia a force for truth and justice in an otherwise collapsing world order.

      But President Putin is not a demigod, nor does he wield total control amongst the Russian political class. He appears to be a good man, but he’s just one man.

      If the world is going to be saved from the Satanic Globalists, then every single man, woman and child across the planet will have to stand up and do their bit, no matter how small and insignificant that may seem.

      They have demons on their side, but we have God and the numbers.

  • Chris Herz

    Hard to escape the conclusion Russia is being pushed into a corner.

    • Mark

      It is if Russia limits itself to the options NATO offers it.

  • Mark

    What ‘unprecedented military buildup?’ Are these analysts not aware that what lies on the other side of the Ukrainian border is…Russia? Large numbers of Russian troops in Russia? Who would have ever imagined.

    When they say ‘massed on the border’, do they mean in battle formations, in the field, with all equipment associated with a ground attack including mobile headquarters vehicles, mobile hospitals and casualty-clearing vehicles, NBCD decontamination units and engineering vehicles like bridging units and excavators? Yes? Sounds like an invasion. No? Sounds like bullshit.

    Russia is not remotely interested in conquering Ukraine, especially when it might end up being responsible for it. If it is really concerned about the west staging missiles in Ukraine, that’s what it would have to do – roll over it, subdue it and then own it. Otherwise NATO would be sneaking back in the moment the dust settled. NATO has long looked for a way it could be more involved in Ukraine, but make Russia pay for its restoration. Any chance of anything like that happening will die with a whimper when Nord Stream II goes into operation and Ukraine is no longer needed by Russia as a transit country. That’s why the issue is being forced now. Once Ukraine is out of the equation as a transit state, there is no longer any reason for Russia to be concerned about what happens to it. If the west has ambitious plans about basing missiles there, it needs to be told a firm ‘No’ followed by stepped-up patrols by SSBN’s off the North American coast, to make it crystal clear that America is not going to be able to pull off another big war in Europe while paying no costs itself.

  • GMC

    Spasibo – Really good synopsis of the situation.

  • Juan

    Let’s go Brandon!