Putin’s SMO Half-Assery Has Been an Invitation to US to Send More Weapons Faster

One million (!) shells in seven months as nobody fears a power that wages "SMO"
It’s no exaggeration to say that without NATO supplies Ukraine would no longer have shells

The US has so far transferred around one million 155 mm artillery shells to Ukraine. One million since late-Aprilearly-May when the shipments started, or 150,000 per month. That is not counting the 152 mm shells that someone (likely the US) is buying in Bulgaria and transferring via Poland to Ukraine.

Along with the financial aid, and satellite support, the shells are the most important aspect of US intervention in the Russo-Ukrainian war.

The quantities being transferred over are so great that the US stockpile is noticeably shrinking. The one million shells transferred in seven months represent about 20% of the pre-war stockpile, and the production doesn’t come close to covering the deliveries. Pre-war production in most years was well under 300,000 annually, which wouldn’t even cover two months of transfers.

It is quite likely that in the medium term the US will start rationing its deliveries, assuming that the US won’t want to go under 50% of the pre-war stockpile. I guess that in one sense this is “good news” for Russia. But viewed differently it also means that in America’s shell-delivery war against Russia the only limiting factor for DC is shell availability.

That is quite something when you consider that in March-April the US was debating with itself whether to introduce American-caliber artillery to the conflict at all, wondering if that was too much of an escalation.

Indeed from February through April there was a lot of American talk of “self-imposed red lines” on US arms shipments which has now disappeared.

In terms of deterring US arms shipments, the Russian leadership can be deemed to have failed. Now let’s be fair. There are objective reasons for that. The Empire with its vassal swarm simply is considerably more powerful than Russia. Complete deterrence was never possible. The US was always going to send over some weapons and was always going to be gradually escalating the quantities and types of weapons it was sending. However, the problem that I see is that at every step the Kremlin has acted to encourage the Americans to send more weapons, rather than to discourage them. Instead of offering deterrence — no matter how limited — Kremlin’s peculiar prosecution of the war has served as an open invitation to the Americans to send more.

One piece of news this week has been that the US has transferred over so many shells to be fired at Russian soldiers that this is straining its stockpiles. One other piece of news this week has been that Putin has re-entered the “grain deal” (after being outside of it for the whole of 2 days) and that he guarantees the safety of commercial shipping sailing to and from Ukrainian ports.

That is bizarre, isn’t it? As you have the enemy feed one million shells into Russia’s war to be fired to kill Russian soldiers, Vladimir Putin is rewarding it by entering into a “grain deal”. At this point why in the world wouldn’t the Americans be sending over these shells? What do they have to fear??

Russia forsaking a naval blockade helps out Ukraine’s budget leaving more money for the military and it eases the load on its railways. The grain would still get out eventually but every railway car that is carrying grain is a car that can’t transport something else. The Russian military will (sometimes) hit Ukraine’s railway infrastructure and at the same time, Putin will be concluding deals to make the life of the railways easier.

(I am told that the grain deal grants some SWIFT-related concessions to Russia as well which make its own export of grain and fertilizer easier, but even this part of the deal also benefits the West by lowering world prices.)

Look, I am not remotely saying that Putin could get a deal where he would allow grain to get out, and in return, the US would stop bringing in shells. That obviously would never happen. What I am saying is that by half-assing his war to such an enormous extent Putin is constantly signaling to the US that this isn’t an important conflict for him, and that the US intervening with these arms shipments isn’t a big deal.

I read his essay and therefore I know that his Ukrainian enterprise is actually enormously important to him. He views it as a belated, desperate, existential war to preserve the last vestiges of the All-Russian nation. The last bit of a united East Slav identity.

(Arguably war is precisely the wrong tool for this, but it is also the case that the very reason the invasion plan was so toothless and so disastrous, is that it went to extreme lengths to try to produce a result while avoiding any real war, — regardless of how utterly improbable that outcome actually was. If there was any chance at all that SMO could win Ukraine without a war he was going to explore that possibility to the fullest.)

But the fact that the war in Ukraine actually is enormously important to Putin and to Russia doesn’t matter, when at the same time: War has not been declared. It is deemed a “special military operation”. Conscripts have been made non-deployable. Russia didn’t mobilize for 7-months into it, and still hasn’t touched the Dniper bridges. “Grain deals” continue to be made and Russian gas continues to flow through Ukraine for Western markets. When Putin does stuff like fly off to Vladivostok to observe an irrelevant military drill while his outnumbered soldiers (and cops) are about to get hit by a massive Ukrainian offensive in Kharkov.

In fact, the main message that Moscow tried to project at home until the September disaster in Kharkov was that nothing had changed. That peacetime has not been broken and that normalcy will continue.

When you lay all that on top of each other, then why the Empire shouldn’t pour weapons by the planeload into your war? When you’re being so cavalier about your own war, then why should America be very careful not to rush ahead of its “self-imposed red lines”? There was literally the situation that the Russian effort was screaming out for manpower and Putin wouldn’t do something as simple as proclaim Russia to be in a state of war and release the 150,000 already-trained conscripts into the war even as Ukraine kept expanding its force by leaps and bounds.

Why should the US have been nervous about escalating its transfers when Putin was pursuing the war with all of the intensity owed to some no-stakes adventure in Africa?

Not to mention that SBU used a previous grain deal to smuggle explosives for the Kerch bridge attack to Bulgaria and then Georgia

Particularly sending shells that will now kill — not just professional Russian soldiers — but also just normal Ivans mobilized for the war is, I think, a qualitative difference. Pouring in heavy weapons into a war that regular Russian citizens are going to serve in en masse would normally be quite a grave and escalatory step to take.

Had Putin prosecuted the war with conscripts and mobiki from the start it seems likely to me that Americans would have been a lot more careful and would have balked at sending in US-made artillery quite so early. And if this greater Russian manpower also meant that the Russian war was proceeding much better the Americans would have remained respectful for even longer.

Instead, we have the situation now where regular Russians are being introduced into a conflict in which gigantic US 155-mm deliveries are already a fact and thus a “non-issue”.

And the situation where Americans are delivering shells to be fired to try and kill Russian soldiers at such break-neck speed that they’re starting to be worried for the state of their stockpiles, and looking for ways to boost production.

Russia’s artillery advantage has been melting away. Starting with an overwhelming advantage now firing perhaps 15K to Ukraine’s 6K daily.

Regardless of what you think of the Russian war in Ukraine the inverse is of course entirely impossible. The idea that the US would invade a country, say Iraq, and that Russia would then pour weapons to help kill Americans is preposterous. There was the brouhaha about Russian-paid “bounties” in Afghanistan but that was all made up. The US hasn’t fought a war where somebody was actively arming the other side since Viet Nam fifty years ago in an entirely different world.

But to the reverse scenario of America propping up the other side in a Russian war, Putin has no answer. In fact, with his dilly-dallying, he assured the Americans of his confusion and invited the problem of fast-growing US intervention into his home.

The big problem with defending Putin’s performance in this war is that it hasn’t even been average. It’s not just not-judo and not-5D. It has been anti-judo and anti-5DIt’s just one rudimentary unforced mistake after another.

I understand that he was hoping against hope that when he rolled across the border that Zelensky would just flee and the Ukrainian state would fall apart. That he could have Russo-Ukrainian unity restored without the need for a fratricidal war. And that he had only the fuzziest idea of how to proceed if that didn’t happen.

But the fact is that it didn’t happen. The fact is that people are dying and that his procrastination is making it worse. Worse for Russia, and worse for himself.

Even his own position is not improved by this endless refusal to take command of the situation. Yes, on February 24 it was his action that got him into a great big mess. But since then it has been his inaction that has been digging his hole deeper. Small problems today grow into bigger problems tomorrow.

Since February 24 he has looked like a man who, afraid of what is in the envelopes, refuses to read his mail until the unpaid bills pile up to where he loses the house.

There are 300,000 regular Ivans from Sverdlovsk headed to the front where a daily barrage of 5000 US-made shells awaits them. Perhaps this is not the time for grain deals, gas deals, and signing onto G20 COVID declarations? Perhaps now is the time to give NATO a reason for pause?

Or else, as tonight some Ivan’s gut spills out from an American 155-mm he can die in the comfort of knowing that Russia “hasn’t even started anything serious yet”?

Well, what are you waiting for? The Americans are starting without you.

Comments (17)
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  • Blackledge

    “That is bizarre, isn’t it?”

    If Russia is fighting an existential war for national survival then yes, it is. But if V.V. Putin and his clique are WEF men working behind the scenes with western governments to weaken RF and usher in a One World Governance model then no, it isn’t.

    “He views it as a belated, desperate, existential war to preserve the last vestiges of the All-Russian nation. The last bit of a united East Slav identity.”

    If this is so, why is flooding RF with predominantly Muslim, Turkic and other central Asian migrants? Why are non-orthodox, non-Slavs being put in positions of power, more and more?

    “The big problem with defending Putin’s performance in this war is that it hasn’t even been average. It’s not just not-judo and not-5D.”

    It looks like betrayal and treason, to me.

      • Blackledge

        Saw a procession of Russian military cadets in St. Petersburg celebrating “The Day of Rocket Forces and Artillery” today and 1 in 3 of the men marching and singing in formation – wearing Russian uniforms and ushanka, mind you – was a black male.

        Blew my mind.

      • Blackledge

        Thanks very much! 🙏

    • Abraham Lincoln

      I don’t know if Putin has planned it this way, but the Ukraine Zio USA fiasco is draining all US and NATO weaponry, so this is actually an astounding strategic victory for Russia in the medium and long-run. I would never have thought it was possible, before all this started. Probably the biggest strategic blunder since HItler invaded Russia.

      Most of the weapons the US has can’t be made in the United States without imports from China. It seems China is likely to deny the US access to these parts. The US could end up in a situation where they don’t even have any weapons. Good luck fighting China over Taiwan or Iran over the Middle East etc., or anyone, when most weapons are gone having been sent to Ukraine for Russia to blow up.

      Most on this pro Zio empire propaganda board appear too stupid to see this.

  • Yuno

    “If this is so, why is flooding RF with predominantly Muslim, Turkic and other central Asian migrants? Why are non-orthodox, non-Slavs being put in positions of power, more and more?”

    In light of the continued media-driven onslaught of disinformation which concurrently JUXTAPOSES the alleged differences tween a degenerate, elite-captured, migrant-flooded west and a resurgent, independent & nationalist-oriented ‘christian,’ ‘traditional values'[insert your favorite faux description here] Rus…
    it’s hard for the onlooker to realize that the parallels/similarities of ‘breakdown’ between the two dying hegemons are MUCH the more common that those alleged differences.
    Without the ongoing migration of the “minorities” from the hinterlands to serve as the classic ‘hewers & drawers’… the effort of the Muscovy/Rus heartland populace to emulate the consumer society that they ogle in the west would have long gone astray. Not any less that your ‘lettuce pickers,’ ‘hospice attendants,’ low wage factory workers and easily hired and laid off temporary hordes who are now the actual gears of the USSA economy, the Rus economy relies upon the continual arrival of those same employment demographics to stay functional.

    While it would be fun to apply a “marxist” analysis to the place where ‘marxist’ economics once supposed itself the victor over class struggle, its really immaterial to the major point; the rush of people from the former ‘colonies’ of ‘white’ Rus into the heartland is a fact which points the same dagger into the ‘heart’ of Duginesque pretense to a nascent ‘Russia’ with imperial swagger.

    Once again, the unjaundiced onlooker is forced to reference the French colonial downfall @ Dienbienphu, in order to grasp the magnitude of the debacle which the Kolonel has dragged his dying off ‘white Rus’ followers into. Long before there was a Russia to defend or expand, there was a Tartary with it’s teeming hordes of Altaic warriors, an expanding Caliphate with its scimitar waving jihadis, focused on the fashionable[and profitable]trade of dragging Slavs of both sexes off to serve in the seraglios of the warlord/merchant upper crust.

    By the time the Kolonel is through with his demolition of white Rus’s last chance of demographic resuscitation & renewal[via his Kovid-Kompliance with the usual $power suspects- and now this mad ‘war not war\f/u/]there will be nothing to stop the same despoiling of the cowering and defenseless survivors of the next ‘dark races’ onslaught.

    Nought has changed in forty centuries. Always behind those teeming hordes sits smugly the gang who arrange their pawns in the same manner as the arrangement of their jeweled accoutrements, and wage endless culture war upon the ‘whites’ who have stood in their way to complete global dominance.

    Time be upon us – when at last those maniacs get their way.

    • Blackledge

      Truth ^

      Sadly true.

  • peterinanz

    “He views it as a belated, desperate, existential war to preserve the last vestiges of the All-Russian nation. The last bit of a united East Slav identity.”

    There is, apparently, something in Orthodox psyche which can’t go past ‘the great leader who is embodiment of people’, and see simple truth.

  • YakovKedmi

    “For 300 years England played Russia like a fiddle. Now Vladimir is going to give up his Slav nature and be wiser and smarter than many generations of Romanovs and grand-dukes ?”

    >>>>>> “I read his essay and therefore I know that his Ukrainian enterprise is actually enormously important to him. He views it as a belated, desperate, existential war to preserve the last vestiges of the All-Russian nation. The last bit of a united East Slav identity.”
    In April Grand-Protector Vladimirovich was ready to sign a treaty which gave up on all that flummery. —speaks louder than a 100-page sermon.

    In the sermon V.V. writes that the fate of the Rusins of Karpatia is close to his heart. Karpatia seems to be the only district where the Russians haven’t sent laser-guided cannon-balls. So Ukraine is using the district to place VIP displaced persons there. The Rusins and the Hungarians already moved to Hungary.

    False premise, shifting sand, bottomless pit, sink-hole. You build your day-dream castle on this foundation, and you get vanishing vapour. None of it is true. V.V. is not what the people who want a hero so bad they are willing to invent one and idolize it, describe him. People visited their wishes and desires on this imaginary Putin. The real Putin is nothing of the sort.

    15 years after Abraham Lincoln died, some people invented a mythical Lincoln and popularized it.
    A few weaks after JF Kennedy was killed, some people invented Saint Jack and visited all their day-dreams upon him.

    Now Saviour Putin is coming in his shining armour
    (while in America saviour Trump will lead us to somewhere)

    The real Putin surfed into the Kremlin on a wave of terror. The Cheka demolished a few apartment buildings with the tenants in them, 400 citizens died, and V.V. became chief factor and refused to leave. In 1999 the residents of Russia wanted the Communist Party to come back —they had enough shock-treatment from Jeffrey Sachs; but they were not allowed to get what they wanted, they were given V.V.

    What has V.V. done since 2000 to improve the well-being of the Slav race ? Nothing. He gave people a larger and steady welfare cheque. He flooded Russia with amerikano culture. During his tenure Russian television turned into amerikano television (Maury Povich, Jerry Springer, Morton Downey). Take a look at the streets of Muscovy —yes, the old buildings are still there, but the people are amerikanos.

    In the 1970s Slavs in Russia already noticed that in a generation or two they would be outnumbered by the reproductive non-Slavs. Has V.V. done anything to reverse this trend ?

    After 1991 the enemies of Slavs promoted and spread the brain-fucked ideas of the skull-fucked muzhik Dugin. Today the Slavs of Russia and the Slavs of Ukraine are enjoying the fruits of that education.

    The managers of Russia don’t like Napoleon so they don’t want the people to learn from Napoleon.
    L’agriculture; l’âme, la base première de l’empire.
    L’industrie; l’aisance, le bonheur de la population.
    Le commerce extérieur; la surabondance, le bon emploi des deux autres.
    They don’t like Mussolini, either, so no learning from him. They like Hitler even less, definitely no learning from him. But we do like Vladimir Ilyich and Yosip Visariovich, so why don’t we learn from them ?
    To talk about regularization of banks means either to betray complete ignorance, or to fool the simple folk with high sounding words. To control the delivery of bread, or in general, the production and distribution of goods, without controlling banking practices, is an absurdity.
    And especially, why don’t we learn from and correct their mistakes ? Why didn’t/don’t we teach and work out their economic concepts ?

    By hook & crook, the Bank-Robber established a heavy industry that produced more tanks and aeroplanes than the German war machine.

    The solution to the problems/mistakes/errors of soviet industry and agriculture was NOT the giving of the nation’s industry and agriculture to internationalist criminal gangs.

    National agriculture, worked by a large number of small-holders, is a very good concept. They produce plenty of quality food (real chicken, real pork, real veggies; not factory food), and they tend to make more than one or two babies.

    National industrial production, worked by self-employed or small operators, is also a very good concept. (they also used to have more children) Large factories are only needed to produce large items like locomotives.

    The real Putin (not the figment of wishful imagination) learned everything he knew/knows from Angela Merkel. He proceeded to give away everything that could be given away to internationalist criminal organizations.

    —-So much for V.V. Putin & the Siloviki enforcers, their 20-year performance, and their intention to save the Slav race.

    V.V. Putin and the Cheka took 600,000 million dollars out of the economy of Russia, out of the pockets of the citizens of Russia. The siloviki never asked the people of Russia whether they want a war and a war-chest, they just decided and arbitrarily separated the people from their money.

    Had it been put to a vote in 2005, would the citizens have voted for this war-chest and the war ? Have the citizens felt strongly about the government and the people of Ukraine ? We can say that the residents living east of Ural would have said no to war, “no” to war-chest —they would have voted for wash-machines, indoor plumbing, roads & sidewalks, railways.
    Have the people east of Ural felt threatened by the Nazi government of Ukraine and the fascist children of Bandera ?

    The people residing in the Principality of Muscovy, the baabushkas receiving comfortable welfare cheques, perhaps would have voted for war; perhaps they would have voted for a war-chest if it didn’t effect their monthly allowances. But if the people of Muscovy had been told that they would have to put skin in the game, would they have voted for war ?

    There is a good reason why Putin and the Cheka never asked the residents.

    Spending half of this money on developing national(ist) economy would have done a lot more for the preservation of the Slav race.

    What will be the reward of the Ukrainian people. If they win the war. Since February 24 the people of Ukraine are fighting and dying on the battle-fields. We don’t see one nigg or Indian on those killing fields. But you can be sure they will be the first to show up in Kiev after the war, and infest the neighbourhood, enrich the culture, and submit their demands.

    Are the people of Ukraine fighting the Russians to make Ukraine a safe place for niggs and muslims and Indians ? Is Ukraine going to be turned into a culturally enriched slop-pail ? —like London, Amsterdam, Malmo, Frankfurt, Paris, Chicago, Los Angeles

    In Manchester the grand-children of world war 2 thank-a-veterans are gang-raped and turned into sex-slaves by Pakistani muslims on an industrial scale. Is that the future the people of Ukraine will be rewarded with ?

    In Holland the government is dispossessing farmers to make room and apartments for nigg and muslim invaders —is Halych going to be a new nigg homeland, as Irish land became New Cameroon ?

    Who invented this concept that every Slav (and a whole bunch of non-Slavs) has to live under the control and governance of the gang in Moskva ? Mother Russia, residing in Moskva, knows best. Are the people of the Common Market better off under a central government ? they are racially closer to one another than Buryats and Rusins


    >>>>>> “the invasion plan was so toothless and so disastrous, is that it went to extreme lengths to try to produce a result while avoiding any real war”

    None of it is true. The plans for operation evanescence were not formulated out of care, kindness, warm-heartedness. They sent marching bands and crossing guards to occupy Kiev NOT because they cared so much for the citizens. The whole operation was based on falsehoods and false premises built on false assumptions. The whole-entire Russian spy network lied or cluster failed. Even a useless (and talent-less) government employee like Generalissimo Shoigu would have come up with a better course of action than what took place on way to Kiev —if he had known the facts.

    The long con started when the Obama crew was president. They fed the bait, go ahead, take Crimea, we’ll huff & puff, but nothing more. In 2020 the same crew moved back into the White House and said, proceed with your Brezinsky Dugin plan, we’ll huff & puff some more and louder, but that will be all.

    V.V. Putin swallowed hook-line-sinker, put 300,000 million of his war-chest into NATO banks, and now we are in predicament. We (Europe, America) are being sodomized. The war is used as cover for bigger harder shaft. When the war is over we’ll be sodomized some more. It might be that the ones who received instant death on the battle-field were the lucky ones.

    What would be the reward of the people of Russia if the Expeditionary Force won this war ?

    War is a losing proposition. War is NOT the method by which you punch or kick the NWO in the face. We learned long ago that “not to war” is the most revolutionary thing you can do on this planet. Not to war is most harmful and dangerous to the International Money Power. Grand-Protector wannabe Putin should know this, it is in the job description. (Stalin knew but didn’t listen, so he lost the war)

    • Yuno

      ““For 300 years England played Russia like a fiddle. Now Vladimir is going to give up his Slav nature”…

      Puzzle pieces; with ‘the patience of Job’ one labors to put them together in the proper sequence.

      What we think of as “England” – the island empire which ‘ruled the seas’ in succession to those previous dogsbodies of the $power – Holland, Portugal, Spain & so on – only looms out of the fogs of disinfo once we ‘de-commission’ all the accumulated lies of orthodox ‘historiography’ … and begin to THINK with all the olde faculties ditched in favor of useless ‘post-modern’ blinkers.

      After Mary “Queen of Scots” – the coup which brought the $power it’s island empire was complete. In her retinue were the scions of the previously successful takeover of the northern part of that same isle. The work of authors Hirschman and Yates – WHEN SCOTLAND WAS JEWISH – blow away all those mists and fog, disclosing the HOODAIC pedigrees of the majority of the scottish elites. Cromwell & the *ist of many PHONY REVOLUTIONS* were merely clean up and reinforcement of the original coup d’etat.

      Why this matters re Russia is even less understood. Those same Hoodaic ‘scottish’ elite families were heavily involved in the Baltic trade and planted their roots/hooks in the east with sons and daughters marrying into the Rus nobility – just like the Hudson’s Bay Company,’ :;East India Co, etc., the Muscovy Company was their enterprise – squaring the circle whereby the old Portuguese-Spanish Marrano families which fled to Amsterdam/Brussels before engineering their “Bank of England” debt usury interest machine met & mingled with the turko-slavic ashkenazi Hoos from the east.

      Nothing you read in vanilla history is real. And Vlad is every bit the half-caste mischingler that Adolf himself was. Footstools of the only power on this earth that matters. 5D chess-playin lackies of the $power. “Slav nature?” Vlad is an ‘automatic right of return’ half-cast hoodaic correctly ID’d here as the protege of Stasi-agent Merkel.. as well as Heinz Kissinger and the rest of the communo-fascist brain trust. No different than Drumpie, Obamie, or the sad sack cast that comes & goes in “merry olde.”

      Only super-smart dudes like “Abe Lincoln” can assemble the brain power necessary to perceive them as ‘players.’ The rest of us stupids are stuck with seeing them as they are – “pawns in the game!”

  • Blackledge

    Sublime …

  • Volodja

    We remember that he warned with unseen retaliation any country that is tempted to get involved. Not sure if sending mercenaries, troops, instructors, arms and ammo is an involvement though, but he is obviously allowing escalation by other players.