Kremlin: Ukraine Is “Highly Likely” to Attack Donbass, Also Kremlin: Attack Would Have “Serious Consequences”

As US warns that a Russian escalation against Ukraine is imminent, Moscow insists it is Ukraine’s escalation against Donbass that is imminent:

MOSCOW, February 16. /TASS/. It is highly probable that Kiev will embark on a combat operation in Donbass, Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Wednesday.

“We draw attention to this dangerous concentration and to the fact that a military operation and an attempt to resolve problems with the use of force in the southeast are quite real. This probability is high and real and, unfortunately, all of us and the entire world were witnesses when Kiev unleashed a military operation in Donbass, that is, it started a civil war in the country,” the Russian presidential spokesman said.

Of course, Moscow is on the record since November [when the Russian buildup was first publicized by the Americans] that such a Ukrainian escalation would come with “serious consequences” for Ukraine:

MOSCOW, November 21. /TASS/. Attempts to resolve the Ukrainian crisis by force will trigger serious consequences, Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated on Sunday.

“Ukraine is most likely seeking another attempt to start solving its own problem by force, creating another disaster for itself and for everyone in Europe,” the Kremlin spokesman told the Rossiya-1 TV channel.

According to Peskov, Ukraine “is achieving this, most likely, under the cover of those NATO exercises, NATO ships in the Black Sea, American and British soldiers in the region, there are more and more of them.”

“This is what Ukraine is striving for. And this is heartbreaking since it will entail some serious consequences,” Peskov insisted.

It is a theme Kremlin has played on consistently. In January it suggested NATO arms shipments were encouraging Ukraine to escalate in Donbass:

“The Ukrainian authorities are concentrating a huge amount of forces and means on the engagement line. Indeed, the nature of this concentration indicates preparation for offensive actions. Indeed, there is such a threat now. And, indeed, every single piece of weapon, be it defensive or offensive, just inspires hotheads in Kyiv to start this operation. We can’t help but worry about it,” he said.

Peskov stressed that the threat of “provocations” by Ukraine’s military now is higher than before and that Moscow would like the NATO countries in each new statement to urge the Ukrainian authorities not to even think about the possibility of a military settlement in Donbas.

Why Kiev would launch an offensive into Donbass just as Russia has 60% of its land army power standing at the ready in a ring around it is left unexplained. That would make as much sense as Assad “gassing his own people” after Obama’s chemical weapons “red line” threat.

Moscow is very much acting like it is either A) thirsty for an excuse to escalate against Kiev and quash it or B) pretending to be.

You could make the argument that Kremlin’s rhetoric is meant to deter Kiev, but I don’t buy it. Kiev was sufficiently deterred 80,000 troops ago.

I think if Moscow is going to escalate against Kiev it ought to at least do it like a boss and be sincere. Not hide behind see-through pretexts relating to made-up or highly exaggerated recent events. But simply explain the fundamental causes of its action and the necessity and justice of its cause as it sees it. Come out with “ya actually we don’t have a manufactured tear-jerker from 2 minutes ago to cite as an excuse, this goes much deeper than that, and we’ve been preparing for 2.5 years now.”